162
FXUS61 KAKQ 182010
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
310 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 1044 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S, AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS TO THE SE.
A QUIET DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF TOMORROW'S WINTER
STORM. A STRONG HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLANS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH OUR
AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY WEAK EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT OR BELOW
10 MPH INLAND WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20
MPH ON THE EASTERN SHORE. GOES VISIBLE HIGHLIGHTS A LAYER OF THIN
UPPER-CLOUDS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE VA COUNTIES, WITH CLEAR SKIES IN
OUR NC COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S THIS MORNING
IN MOST COMMUNITIES, WITH SOME LOCATIONS HITTING THE LOWER 40S. A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OVERNIGHT, A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA AND CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE AND THICKEN IN RESPONSE. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA BEFORE RAMPING UP TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S, SO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN
THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 335 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SE VA AND NE NC. WATCHES
HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FARTHER NORTH WHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY THE AFTN BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NNE OFF THE
NC/VA COAST WED NIGHT-THU AM. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SE VA AND NE NC FROM WED-WED NIGHT WITH
SNOW TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6" LIKELY. WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS HERE AND WILL MAINTAIN THE WATCH FARTHER NORTH (INCLUDING
IN THE RIC METRO) WHERE THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOW
AMOUNTS (MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL RANGE FROM 2" TO 6"+ ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA).
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND IMPACTS...
PRECIP SPREADS IN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS
DECENT WAA ALOFT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE
INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY TARGET THE PIEDMONT, RIC
METRO, AND TRI CITIES...AND COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 7-9 AM. WITH
THE VERY COLD TEMPS, AREA ROADWAYS COULD BECOME SLICK EVEN AFTER THE
FIRST 0.5" OF ACCUMULATION. THIS COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR THE AM COMMUTE IF THE SNOW MOVES IN EARLY ENOUGH.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IT MOVING IN A BIT LATER (8-11 AM). THE
STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN. COULD EASILY SEE A QUICK 1-2" FROM FARMVILLE
TO RICHMOND BY EARLY AFTN.
FARTHER SOUTH, IT MAY VERY WELL STAY DRY THROUGH 11 AM OR NOON
BEFORE THE LOW STARTS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD SE VA AND NE NC DURING THE AFTN THANKS TO
STRONG 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW.
RATES WILL LIKELY BE 1-2" PER HOUR AT TIMES BY THE EVENING SOUTH AND
EAST OF AN EMPORIA-WILLIAMSBURG-ACCOMAC LINE. MEANWHILE, LIGHT SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND RIC METRO
FROM W-E BETWEEN 5 AND 11 PM. THE SNOW LIKELY CONTINUES ACROSS SE VA
AND NE NC THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION
FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. MIXING WITH PL/FZRA/RA COULD LOWER TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NE
NC, BUT AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP STAYS AS MOSTLY SNOW IN
NORFOLK/VA BEACH.
SNOW TOTALS...
THE FORECAST HAS LARGELY REMAINED THE SAME ACROSS SE
VA AND NE NC, WHERE A WIDESPREAD 5-10" OF SNOW IS FORECAST. THE
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FROM
GREENSVILLE/DINWIDDIE COUNTIES TO THE VA EASTERN SHORE SOUTHEASTWARD
WHERE CONFIDENCE IN 3" OF SNOW IS VERY HIGH. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS
MUCH GREATER FARTHER NORTH, AS THE ECMWF/HRRR (WHICH ARE ON THE
LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM) HAVE ONLY 1-3", WHILE THE NAM/GFS AND A
COUPLE OF THE CAMS HAVE 6" TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (EXCEPT
THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES). WILL MAINTAIN THE WATCH FOR THE RIC
METRO NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. EVEN THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER, WILL UPGRADE TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT IN COLLABORATION WITH RNK. AS FOR THE FORECAST,
HAVE 2-3" FROM LOUISA TO CAMBRIDGE, 4-5" FROM FARMVILLE-RICHMOND-
TAPPAHANNOCK, AND 5-10" FARTHER SOUTHEAST (W/ 8-10" IN ALL OF
HAMPTON ROADS). LIGHT ICE ACCUMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM ALL AREAS
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PART OF NE NC NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...
WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY THURSDAY
AM...AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM 6 AM-NOON
ON THURSDAY AS ONE FINAL (STRONG) NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH COLD TEMPS AROUND 20- 25F IN THE
MORNING...THIS COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ON AREA
ROADWAYS. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-25 MPH
RANGE IN SE VA THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT, GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO
25-35 MPH DURING THE DAY ON THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. AS SUCH, SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FCST ON THU FOR
AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE BAY/COAST WHERE GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST.
ALL SNOW SHOULD EXIT BY 1 PM THU. HIGHS WILL RISE TO AROUND 32F
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S THU
NIGHT. SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THU NIGHT, AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 305 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS COULD A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEK, BUT AMOUNTS WILL
BE GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS COLD AND DRY SATURDAY, WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM PASSES BY MAINLY N OF THE
LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW, WILL HAVE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SAT
NIGHT, THOUGH SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DEPICT LIGHT QPF AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS SAT WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, THOUGH THERE IS SOME AMPLIFICATION SHOWN BY MOST OF THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES LATE IN THE WEEK (MAINLY WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE FURTHER SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS BY TUESDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S SUNDAY, AND RANGING THROUGH THE 50S MONDAY-TUESDAY,
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S SUNDAY NIGHT, AND IN THE 30S MONDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1249 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA, BUT CIGS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FL080 THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AT
SBY OVERNIGHT, SO HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF GUSTS OUT AT THAT SITE BY
00Z. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AT THE SE TERMINALS
(ECG AND ORF) TOMORROW MORNING AS A DEVELOPING LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UP THE COAST. MEANWHILE, THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
WILL MOVE IN AND BRING SNOW TO RIC STARTING AT AROUND 15Z
TOMORROW MORNING, AND CIGS AND VIS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR IN
RESPONSE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS AT OR AFTER 18Z TOMORROW, SO WILL INCLUDE THAT IN THE
NEXT TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY,
KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR AND DRY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING LASTING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING LIKELY WIDESPREAD SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX SE.
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 335 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS.
- A WINTRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.
- QUIETER MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED W OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A RESIDUAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT,
THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW READINGS APPROACHING 15 KT IN THE LOWER
AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY, IN ADDITION TO THE MD COASTAL WATERS.
ALL EARLIER HEADLINES WERE CANCELLED AND/OR EXPIRED. THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS MORNING, HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF SURGE OF
NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN THAT THIS APPEARS QUITE LOCALIZED AND
TRANSIENT, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES THIS MORNING AND
MENTION GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE CWF. WINDS RELAX AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER NORTHERLY WIND SURGE DROPS THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA
CRITERIA FOR THIS EVENT TONIGHT AND >18 KT SUSTAINED WIND
PROBABILITIES ARE 50-70% THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE BAY. HAVE
THEREFORE RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL OF THE BAY STARTING AT
03Z/10 PM THIS EVENING AND THE LOWER JAMES STARTING AT 06Z/1 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURGE LOOKS TO BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND
ONLY HAVE HEADLINES THROUGH 12-15Z/7 AM-10 AM WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY LIFTING NE NEAR
THE NC OBX WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. N-NNE WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, WITH
ELEVATED WINDS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO ALL OF THE BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS N AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE MARINE AREA WITH WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT. THE OCEAN ZONE S OF THE NC/VA BORDER COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 35
KT EARLY THU MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE CONDITIONS (FREQUENT
>34 KT GUSTS) IS LOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD SNOW, HEAVY AT
TIMES, IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NW OF THE LOW. SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SNOW. THE LOW PULLS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NNW AS SCA CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. A STRONG PUSH OF CAA IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND WIND PROBS FOR GALE CONDITIONS ARE HIGH (60-90%)
ON THE OCEAN N OF THE NC/VA BORDER AND MEDIUM (40-60%) IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. SINCE THIS IS STILL 48+ HOURS OUT AND TO AVOID
CONFUSION WITH OTHER ELEVATED WIND PERIODS PRECEDING THE PROBABLE
GALES, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCHES THIS CYCLE WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THEY WILL BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
ELEVATED NW WINDS LINGER THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. WINDS DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
AND BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SEAS ARE 2-3 FT S AND 3-4 FT N THIS MORNING. 1-2 FT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BAY THROUGH TODAY, INCREASING TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT WITH
N WIND SURGE. 2-4 FT SEAS ALSO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW TAKES SHAPE TO OUR S WED NIGHT, SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT IN THE
SRN COASTAL WATERS. BY THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, SEAS
RANGE FROM 5- 7 FT S TO 4-6 FT N. ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH
QUIETER SEA STATE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 615 AM EST TUESDAY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER AT
CARTERSVILLE, RICHMOND-WESTHAM, AND THE RICHMOND LOCKS, AND ALSO FOR
THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT FARMVILLE, MATTOAX, AND MATOACA. WARNINGS
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE MEHERRIN RIVER NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE AND THE
NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR RAWLINGS/STONY CREEK/SEBRELL. THESE POINTS
WILL SEE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE
LATEST SITE-SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR MDZ022>025.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR VAZ075>078-084>090-092-093-095>100-521>525.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-064-509>511.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR VAZ060>062-065>069-079>083-512>520.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ERI/NB
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...SW
HYDROLOGY...
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