475
FXUS61 KAKQ 182032
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 332 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S, AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS TO THE SE.
A QUIET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF TOMORROW'S
WINTER STORM. A STRONG HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLANS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY WEAK EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
SEEING VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS, AND SPEEDS ARE AT OR BELOW 10
MPH INLAND. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
BEING MEASURED ON THE EASTERN SHORE. GOES VISIBLE HIGHLIGHTS A
LAYER OF THIN UPPER-CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S IN MOST COMMUNITIES, WITH
COMMUNITIES IN THE EASTERN SHORE STILL SITTING IN THE 30S.
TONIGHT, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS
OUR AREA AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN IN RESPONSE.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN WEST
OF OUR AREA BEFORE RAMPING UP TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 20S, SO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 332 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES INCLUDING DORCHESTER
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AN OVERRUNNING BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 8-11
AM. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW, WHICH IS WHEN SNOWFALL RATES WILL REALLY
BEGIN TO RAMP UP. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE THERE IS ONLY
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO
THE SOUTHERN ONE. AS THIS OCCURS, CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE VA
AND NE NC WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. A STRONG F-GEN BAND LOOKS TO SET
UP BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/TOMORROW EVENING OVER THIS AREA AS A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF OF THE SE COAST BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS,
LEADING TO INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES (1-2" PER HOUR) AND RAPID
ACCUMULATIONS. CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE SE FORECAST AREA
IS HIGH, BUT SNOW TOTALS FARTHER NORTH STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT. THE 12Z NAM IS SUGGESTING
MUCH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND, WHICH WOULD
REQUIRE THE LOW TO TRACK MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS IS A FAR
OUTLIER AND HAS NOT BEEN INCORPORATED INTO OUR FORECAST. TRAVEL WILL
BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTES ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO STAY OFF THE ROAD IF
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW ON THE BACK END
OF THE SYSTEM AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE THE MID AND UPPER-LEVELS WILL HAVE STARTED
TO DRY OUT, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO SNOW RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH, LEADING
TO A LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW. A QUICK HALF-INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SNOW TOTALS...
THE FORECAST HAS REMAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME SINCE THIS MORNING'S
UPDATE. SE VA AND NE NC ALONG WITH THE VA PORTION OF THE EASTERN
SHORE STILL REMAIN THE TARGET OF THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS, WHERE 5-
10" ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN AREAS AROUND THE RIC METRO AND NORTH, THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN TOTALS REACHING WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA (4+")
THAT A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FARMVILLE-RICHMOND-
TAPPAHANNOCK-SALISBURY AREA WHERE 4-6" ARE FORECAST. LOUISA TO
CAMBRIDGE HAS BEEN PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH SNOW
TOTALS BETWEEN 2-4" POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NE NC NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
AFTER THE END OF THE SNOW LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY, WINDS WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE. THIS IS DUE TO THE THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LAST ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND EASILY
MOVED AROUND. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE COASTAL
AREAS AND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS PLUMMETING INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THESE FRIGID LOWS, COMBINED WITH THE
ELEVATED WINDS, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE
LOCAL AREA.
AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD AND FINALLY SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR DOMINATING THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO
MODERATE SOMEWHAT BEGINNING FRIDAY AND HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS WINDS
SLACKEN FURTHER AND CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS MINIMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 305 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS COULD A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEK, BUT AMOUNTS WILL
BE GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS COLD AND DRY SATURDAY, WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM PASSES BY MAINLY N OF THE
LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW, WILL HAVE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SAT
NIGHT, THOUGH SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DEPICT LIGHT QPF AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS SAT WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, THOUGH THERE IS SOME AMPLIFICATION SHOWN BY MOST OF THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES LATE IN THE WEEK (MAINLY WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE FURTHER SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS BY TUESDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S SUNDAY, AND RANGING THROUGH THE 50S MONDAY-TUESDAY,
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S SUNDAY NIGHT, AND IN THE 30S MONDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1249 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA, BUT CIGS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FL080 THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AT
SBY OVERNIGHT, SO HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF GUSTS OUT AT THAT SITE BY
00Z. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AT THE SE TERMINALS
(ECG AND ORF) TOMORROW MORNING AS A DEVELOPING LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UP THE COAST. MEANWHILE, THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
WILL MOVE IN AND BRING SNOW TO RIC STARTING AT AROUND 15Z
TOMORROW MORNING, AND CIGS AND VIS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR IN
RESPONSE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS AT OR AFTER 18Z TOMORROW, SO WILL INCLUDE THAT IN THE
NEXT TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY,
KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR AND DRY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING LASTING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING LIKELY WIDESPREAD SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX SE.
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 335 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS.
- A WINTRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.
- QUIETER MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED W OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A RESIDUAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT,
THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW READINGS APPROACHING 15 KT IN THE LOWER
AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY, IN ADDITION TO THE MD COASTAL WATERS.
ALL EARLIER HEADLINES WERE CANCELLED AND/OR EXPIRED. THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS MORNING, HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF SURGE OF
NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN THAT THIS APPEARS QUITE LOCALIZED AND
TRANSIENT, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES THIS MORNING AND
MENTION GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE CWF. WINDS RELAX AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER NORTHERLY WIND SURGE DROPS THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA
CRITERIA FOR THIS EVENT TONIGHT AND >18 KT SUSTAINED WIND
PROBABILITIES ARE 50-70% THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE BAY. HAVE
THEREFORE RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL OF THE BAY STARTING AT
03Z/10 PM THIS EVENING AND THE LOWER JAMES STARTING AT 06Z/1 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURGE LOOKS TO BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND
ONLY HAVE HEADLINES THROUGH 12-15Z/7 AM-10 AM WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY LIFTING NE NEAR
THE NC OBX WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. N-NNE WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, WITH
ELEVATED WINDS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO ALL OF THE BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS N AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE MARINE AREA WITH WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT. THE OCEAN ZONE S OF THE NC/VA BORDER COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 35
KT EARLY THU MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE CONDITIONS (FREQUENT
>34 KT GUSTS) IS LOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD SNOW, HEAVY AT
TIMES, IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NW OF THE LOW. SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SNOW. THE LOW PULLS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NNW AS SCA CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. A STRONG PUSH OF CAA IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND WIND PROBS FOR GALE CONDITIONS ARE HIGH (60-90%)
ON THE OCEAN N OF THE NC/VA BORDER AND MEDIUM (40-60%) IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. SINCE THIS IS STILL 48+ HOURS OUT AND TO AVOID
CONFUSION WITH OTHER ELEVATED WIND PERIODS PRECEDING THE PROBABLE
GALES, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCHES THIS CYCLE WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THEY WILL BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
ELEVATED NW WINDS LINGER THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. WINDS DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
AND BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SEAS ARE 2-3 FT S AND 3-4 FT N THIS MORNING. 1-2 FT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BAY THROUGH TODAY, INCREASING TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT WITH
N WIND SURGE. 2-4 FT SEAS ALSO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW TAKES SHAPE TO OUR S WED NIGHT, SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT IN THE
SRN COASTAL WATERS. BY THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, SEAS
RANGE FROM 5- 7 FT S TO 4-6 FT N. ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH
QUIETER SEA STATE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 615 AM EST TUESDAY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER AT
CARTERSVILLE, RICHMOND-WESTHAM, AND THE RICHMOND LOCKS, AND ALSO FOR
THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT FARMVILLE, MATTOAX, AND MATOACA. WARNINGS
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE MEHERRIN RIVER NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE AND THE
NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR RAWLINGS/STONY CREEK/SEBRELL. THESE POINTS
WILL SEE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE
LATEST SITE-SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR MDZ022>025.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR VAZ075>078-084>090-092-093-095>100-521>525.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-064-509>511.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR VAZ060>062-065>069-079>083-512>520.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...MAM/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...SW
HYDROLOGY...
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