608
FXUS61 KAKQ 190533
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1233 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S, AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS TO THE SE.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A QUIET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE LOCAL AREA
AHEAD OF TOMORROW'S WINTER STORM. A STRONG HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLANS AND SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING THROUGH OUR AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY
WEAK EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS, AND SPEEDS ARE AT OR BELOW 10 MPH INLAND. WINDS OF
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE BEING MEASURED ON
THE EASTERN SHORE. GOES VISIBLE HIGHLIGHTS A LAYER OF THIN
UPPER-CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 40S IN MOST COMMUNITIES, WITH COMMUNITIES IN THE
EASTERN SHORE STILL SITTING IN THE 30S. TONIGHT, A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA AND CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN IN RESPONSE. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA
BEFORE RAMPING UP TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S,
SO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 332 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES INCLUDING DORCHESTER
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AN OVERRUNNING BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 8-11
AM. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW, WHICH IS WHEN SNOWFALL RATES WILL REALLY
BEGIN TO RAMP UP. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE THERE IS ONLY
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO
THE SOUTHERN ONE. AS THIS OCCURS, CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE VA
AND NE NC WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. A STRONG F-GEN BAND LOOKS TO SET
UP BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/TOMORROW EVENING OVER THIS AREA AS A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF OF THE SE COAST BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS,
LEADING TO INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES (1-2" PER HOUR) AND RAPID
ACCUMULATIONS. CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE SE FORECAST AREA
IS HIGH, BUT SNOW TOTALS FARTHER NORTH STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT. THE 12Z NAM IS SUGGESTING
MUCH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND, WHICH WOULD
REQUIRE THE LOW TO TRACK MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS IS A FAR
OUTLIER AND HAS NOT BEEN INCORPORATED INTO OUR FORECAST. TRAVEL WILL
BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTES ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO STAY OFF THE ROAD IF
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW ON THE BACK END
OF THE SYSTEM AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE THE MID AND UPPER-LEVELS WILL HAVE STARTED
TO DRY OUT, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO SNOW RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH, LEADING
TO A LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW. A QUICK HALF-INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SNOW TOTALS...
THE FORECAST HAS REMAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME SINCE THIS MORNING'S
UPDATE. SE VA AND NE NC ALONG WITH THE VA PORTION OF THE EASTERN
SHORE STILL REMAIN THE TARGET OF THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS, WHERE 5-
10" ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN AREAS AROUND THE RIC METRO AND NORTH, THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN TOTALS REACHING WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA (4+")
THAT A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FARMVILLE-RICHMOND-
TAPPAHANNOCK-SALISBURY AREA WHERE 4-6" ARE FORECAST. LOUISA TO
CAMBRIDGE HAS BEEN PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH SNOW
TOTALS BETWEEN 2-4" POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NE NC NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
AFTER THE END OF THE SNOW LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY, WINDS WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE. THIS IS DUE TO THE THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LAST ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND EASILY
MOVED AROUND. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE COASTAL
AREAS AND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS PLUMMETING INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THESE FRIGID LOWS, COMBINED WITH THE
ELEVATED WINDS, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE
LOCAL AREA.
AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD AND FINALLY SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR DOMINATING THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO
MODERATE SOMEWHAT BEGINNING FRIDAY AND HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS WINDS
SLACKEN FURTHER AND CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS MINIMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 305 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS COULD A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEK, BUT AMOUNTS WILL
BE GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS COLD AND DRY SATURDAY, WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM PASSES BY MAINLY N OF THE
LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW, WILL HAVE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SAT
NIGHT, THOUGH SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DEPICT LIGHT QPF AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS SAT WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, THOUGH THERE IS SOME AMPLIFICATION SHOWN BY MOST OF THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES LATE IN THE WEEK (MAINLY WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE FURTHER SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS BY TUESDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S SUNDAY, AND RANGING THROUGH THE 50S MONDAY-TUESDAY,
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S SUNDAY NIGHT, AND IN THE 30S MONDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS TO START THE 06Z/19 TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NNE 5-10 KT AT RIC, ORF, AND PHF, WITH CALM WINDS AT ECG
AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT SBY. CIGS WILL START TO DECREASE IN THE
NEXT SIX HOURS, BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO ALL MAJOR TERMINALS. SNOW
WILL IMPACT RIC FIRST AROUND 12Z DROPPING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MFR.
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 15-19Z FOR ALL MAJOR
TERMINALS, WITH THE FURTHER WEST SEEING IMPACTS FIRST. EXPECT VIS
AND CIGS TO QUICKLY DROP TO IFR WITH THE HEAVY SNOW. SITES IN THE SE
(ORF, PHF, AND ECG) MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH VIS DROPPING TO 1/4SM
OR LESS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE AROUND 5-10 KT, WITH ORF
GUSTING TO 20 KT AFTER ~23Z/19.
OUTLOOK: DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 335 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TONIGHT FOR
ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS.
- GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.
- QUIETER MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING, EXPECT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT. AS SUCH, HAVE
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAY TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SOMEWHAT ON
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST BY WED NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS
TO INCREASE. AM EXPECTING N TO NE WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 15
TO 25 KT AND ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE BAY ONCE
THE 1ST ONE EXPIRES OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND FOR WED NIGHT
INTO THU AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE AND OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS.
WINDS GRADUALLY TURN NW BY THU EVENING AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 KT BY EVENING. COULD NOT RULE OUT A
FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE BEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE LATER THU
INTO THU NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW GALES BY FRI AFTERNOON, THEN CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC.
SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT THEN BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY WED EVENING. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD
TO 4 TO 7 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE
BY BY THU MORNING. N-NW GALE FORCE GUSTS BY THU EVENING WILL
YIELD 3 TO 5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS OVER THE
OCEAN. SEAS DIMINISH TO 1 TO 3 FT BY SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 615 AM EST TUESDAY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER AT
CARTERSVILLE, RICHMOND-WESTHAM, AND THE RICHMOND LOCKS, AND ALSO FOR
THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT FARMVILLE, MATTOAX, AND MATOACA. WARNINGS
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE MEHERRIN RIVER NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE AND THE
NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR RAWLINGS/STONY CREEK/SEBRELL. THESE POINTS
WILL SEE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE
LATEST SITE-SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ022>025.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ075>078-084>090-092-093-095>100-521>525.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-064-509>511.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ060>062-065>069-079>083-512>520.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
631.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
634-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...MAM/NB
NEAR TERM...AJB/NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...MRD
HYDROLOGY...
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