176
FXUS61 KAKQ 191132
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
632 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TODAY INTO THURSDAY. 5-10" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA, WITH 2-6"
EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES INCLUDING DORCHESTER.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH SFC RIDGING EXTENDING ESE INTO THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER KY CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST TOWARD THE AREA, WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING
ENE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 20S-LOWER
30S (WITH SOME MID 30S IN COASTAL SE VA/NE NC) WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH
PROVIDING A SUPPLY OF COLD/DRY AIR WITH NE WINDS. CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO MID-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
IN FACT, RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SOME LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT,
BUT NONE OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND YET. AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OVERSPREADS THE AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THAT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE, STEADY LIGHT SNOW (RATES OF 0.1-0.5"/HOUR) WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA (WITH THE BAND OF
SNOW LIKELY CENTERED ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR). TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S AT THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, SO IT WILL IMMEDIATELY START
ACCUMULATING ON AREA ROADWAYS. WITH THE SNOW ARRIVING IN THE RIC
METRO AS EARLY AS 7 AM, THE MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE IMPACTED. BY
MIDDAY, 1-2" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THE PIEDMONT TO RIC METRO.
MOSTLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING NEAR THE COAST
AND ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER
TODAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN DEEPENING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS
THIS HAPPENS, SNOW (POSSIBLY MIXED W/ SLEET NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND) WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD SE VA AND NE NC WITH STEADY LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUING INLAND. EXPECT CONDITIONS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC TO
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTN AS A ZONE OF STRONG 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1-
2"/HOUR FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT. THE STEADY SNOW
ENDS FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/RIC METRO BETWEEN 5 AND 11 PM AS
ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRANSFERS TO THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ONE. CONFIDENCE IN 5-10" SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE SE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES TO BE HIGH, BUT THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TO LOWER SNOW TOTALS WEST OF I-95. THE NAM (AND OTHER HI-RES
MODELS) HAVE BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT FROM YESTERDAY'S 12Z RUNS TO THE
MOST RECENT 00Z RUNS. NOT SURE OUR PIEDMONT COUNTIES WILL REACH THE
4" THRESHOLD FOR A WARNING, BUT WILL KEEP 3-4" IN THE FORECAST FROM
CUMBERLAND COUNTY SOUTH TO MECKLENBURG/BRUNSWICK. THE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END NEAR THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY
AM.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW ON THE BACK END
OF THE SYSTEM AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE STARTED TO DRY
OUT, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
(AROUND 700MB) THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 20S ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO SNOW RATIOS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH, LEADING TO A LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW. A QUICK 0.5-1.0"
(PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN SPOTS) IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL INCREASE (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON, WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LAST ROUND OF SNOW WILL
BE LIGHT AND EASILY MOVED AROUND. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.
SNOW TOTALS...
THE FORECAST HAS REMAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
THE RIC METRO SINCE YESTERDAY'S UPDATE...BUT HAS BEEN LOWERED WEST
OF I-95. SE VA AND NE NC ALONG WITH THE VA PORTION OF THE EASTERN
SHORE STILL REMAIN THE TARGET OF THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS, WHERE 5-
10" ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL THINK
THE RIC METRO AND ESPECIALLY TRI-CITIES SEE 4-6". WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM LOUISA TO CAMBRIDGE, WITH SNOW TOTALS
BETWEEN 2-3" POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE MD
EASTERN SHORE IN THE 3-5" RANGE WITH A WARNING. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NE NC NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THESE FRIGID LOWS,
COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT
WIND CHILLS. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND
FINALLY SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR DOMINATING THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO MODERATE
SOMEWHAT BEGINNING FRIDAY AND HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS WINDS
SLACKEN FURTHER AND CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS MINIMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 305 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, WITH A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS THAT COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A
COASTAL LOW FORMING IN THE SE AND THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY.
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WEAK AND LIKELY NOT BRING ANY PRECIP TO
THE AREA. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE AS WELL.
CURRENTLY HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHC FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY LOWS WILL BE COLD IN THE MID TEENS WITH SATURDAY WARMING UP
TO THE LOWER 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES THEN BECOME MORE MODERATE TO START OFF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEN REACH ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
A BAND OF SNOW HAS BEGUN JUST NORTH OF RICHMOND WITH RIC REPORTING
LIGHT SNOW. THE BAND IS PRIMARILY MOVING W TO E SO HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR RIC TO CAPTURE THE LIGHT SNOWFALL. AS FOR THE REST OF THE
MAJOR TERMINALS, SNOW HASN'T YET REACHED AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 13-18Z FOR ALL MAJOR
TERMINALS, WITH THE FURTHER WEST SEEING IMPACTS FIRST. EXPECT VIS
AND CIGS TO QUICKLY DROP TO IFR WITH THE HEAVY SNOW. SITES IN THE SE
(ORF, PHF, AND ECG) MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH VIS DROPPING TO 1/4SM
OR LESS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST THE PERIOD, WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, EXCEPT SBY WHICH
SHOULD REACH VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 03Z/20. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT FROM THE NE AT ALL MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT SBY.
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 335 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
- QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR S. A PUSH
OF COOLER AIR HAS LED TO ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-25 KT ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND 15-20 KT ON THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
QUICKLY AFTER THESE WINDS DIMINISH, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
SHAPE ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF NC/SC. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS, FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY
AREAS TO THE N TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RAISED AND/OR EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. NOTE THE SCA ONLY GOES THROUGH 15Z/10 AM THIS
MORNING FOR THE UPPER BAY AND LOWER JAMES GIVEN A PRONOUNCED SUB-SCA
LULL IN WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS SCA DROPS OFF,
ADDITIONAL SCAS WILL BE NEEDED TO COVER THE WED NIGHT AND THU
PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THURSDAY WITH NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. A PRONOUNCED
PUSH OF CAA THEN ARRIVES THURSDAY EVENING, LASTING INTO THE MORNING
HOURS OF FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WATERS
WITH NW 20-30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT. HAVE
UPGRADED GALE WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER. GUIDANCE AND
PROBABILITIES ARE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC S OF THE NC/VA BORDER SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALE WATCH THERE. GALE WARNINGS/WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY. LASTLY, THE UPPER RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND
WILL LIKELY FALL SHY OF GALES AND HAVE SCAS HERE INSTEAD. SCA
CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AFTER THE GALES DROP OFF AS
NW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE.
QUIETER/BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND AS
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL WATER PATTERN.
WAVES AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH THE PUSH OF
NORTHERLY WINDS. SEAS THEN BUILD QUICKLY TO 4-7 FT TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS NE, FIRST ACROSS THE SRN WATERS
THIS EVENING AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHERN WATERS THURSDAY MORNING.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AT 4-7 FT THROUGH THE STRONG CAA PUSH THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
3-5 FT, WITH 2-4 FT IN THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 615 AM EST TUESDAY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER AT
CARTERSVILLE, RICHMOND-WESTHAM, AND THE RICHMOND LOCKS, AND ALSO FOR
THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT FARMVILLE, MATTOAX, AND MATOACA. WARNINGS
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE MEHERRIN RIVER NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE AND THE
NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR RAWLINGS/STONY CREEK/SEBRELL. THESE POINTS
WILL SEE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE
LATEST SITE-SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ022>025.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ075>078-084>090-092-093-095>100-521>525.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-064-
509>511.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ060>062-
065>069-079>083-512>520.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
631-638.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-634-
656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ654.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...ERI/NB
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/NB
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...SW
HYDROLOGY...
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