213
FXUS61 KAKQ 191531
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1031 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1031 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TODAY INTO THURSDAY. 5-10" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA, WITH 2-6"
EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES INCLUDING DORCHESTER.
AN ARCTIC HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING,
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE ESE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 20 DEGREES IN THE INLAND
COUNTIES THANKS TO THIS CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS. THE EASTERN
SHORE, SE VA, AND NE NC COUNTIES TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. SNOWFALL HAS ALREADY BEGUN AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAS REACHED THE AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS
IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH. DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THE SNOW RATIOS HAVE
REMAINED ABOVE THE TYPICAL "10:1" LEADING TO LIGHTER AND
FLUFFIER SNOW THAT IS EASILY STICKING TO THE ALREADY COLD
ROADWAYS.
AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN. THIS IS
WHEN SNOWFALL RATES WILL REALLY BEGIN TO RAMP UP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SE VA AND NE NC COUNTIES. A STRONG 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THIS AREA, LEADING TO INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES (1-
2" PER HOUR) AND RAPID ACCUMULATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
QUICKLY. CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE SE FORECAST AREA IS
HIGH. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS. THE STEADY SNOW ENDS FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/RIC METRO BETWEEN 5 AND 11 PM AS ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TRANSFERS TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM ONE. TRAVEL WILL
BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTES
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO STAY OFF THE ROAD IF
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW ON THE BACK END
OF THE SYSTEM AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE THE MID AND UPPER-LEVELS WILL HAVE STARTED
TO DRY OUT, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO SNOW RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH, LEADING
TO A LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW. A QUICK HALF-INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME IN SOME LOCATIONS. AFTER THE END OF THE SNOW LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY, WINDS WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE. THIS IS DUE TO
THE THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC AND A STRONG HIGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LAST ROUND OF SNOW
WILL BE LIGHT AND EASILY MOVED AROUND. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF
BLOWING SNOW IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.
SNOW TOTALS...
SE VA AND NE NC ALONG WITH THE VA PORTION OF THE EASTERN SHORE STILL
REMAIN THE TARGET OF THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS, WHERE 5-10" ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE RIC METRO AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES, INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES, ARE IN THE 4-6" RANGE,
WHILE PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE WEST ARE PROGGED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 3-
4". LOUISA TO CAMBRIDGE REMAINS IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH
SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN 2-3" POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NE NC NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THESE FRIGID LOWS,
COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT
WIND CHILLS. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND
FINALLY SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR DOMINATING THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO MODERATE
SOMEWHAT BEGINNING FRIDAY AND HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS WINDS
SLACKEN FURTHER AND CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS MINIMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 305 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, WITH A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS THAT COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A
COASTAL LOW FORMING IN THE SE AND THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY.
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WEAK AND LIKELY NOT BRING ANY PRECIP TO
THE AREA. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE AS WELL.
CURRENTLY HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHC FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY LOWS WILL BE COLD IN THE MID TEENS WITH SATURDAY WARMING UP
TO THE LOWER 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES THEN BECOME MORE MODERATE TO START OFF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEN REACH ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
A BAND OF SNOW HAS BEGUN JUST NORTH OF RICHMOND WITH RIC REPORTING
LIGHT SNOW. THE BAND IS PRIMARILY MOVING W TO E SO HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR RIC TO CAPTURE THE LIGHT SNOWFALL. AS FOR THE REST OF THE
MAJOR TERMINALS, SNOW HASN'T YET REACHED AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 13-18Z FOR ALL MAJOR
TERMINALS, WITH THE FURTHER WEST SEEING IMPACTS FIRST. EXPECT VIS
AND CIGS TO QUICKLY DROP TO IFR WITH THE HEAVY SNOW. SITES IN THE SE
(ORF, PHF, AND ECG) MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH VIS DROPPING TO 1/4SM
OR LESS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST THE PERIOD, WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, EXCEPT SBY WHICH
SHOULD REACH VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 03Z/20. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT FROM THE NE AT ALL MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT SBY.
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 335 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
- QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR S. A PUSH
OF COOLER AIR HAS LED TO ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-25 KT ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND 15-20 KT ON THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
QUICKLY AFTER THESE WINDS DIMINISH, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
SHAPE ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF NC/SC. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS, FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY
AREAS TO THE N TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RAISED AND/OR EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. NOTE THE SCA ONLY GOES THROUGH 15Z/10 AM THIS
MORNING FOR THE UPPER BAY AND LOWER JAMES GIVEN A PRONOUNCED SUB-SCA
LULL IN WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS SCA DROPS OFF,
ADDITIONAL SCAS WILL BE NEEDED TO COVER THE WED NIGHT AND THU
PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THURSDAY WITH NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. A PRONOUNCED
PUSH OF CAA THEN ARRIVES THURSDAY EVENING, LASTING INTO THE MORNING
HOURS OF FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WATERS
WITH NW 20-30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT. HAVE
UPGRADED GALE WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER. GUIDANCE AND
PROBABILITIES ARE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC S OF THE NC/VA BORDER SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALE WATCH THERE. GALE WARNINGS/WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY. LASTLY, THE UPPER RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND
WILL LIKELY FALL SHY OF GALES AND HAVE SCAS HERE INSTEAD. SCA
CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AFTER THE GALES DROP OFF AS
NW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE.
QUIETER/BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND AS
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL WATER PATTERN.
WAVES AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH THE PUSH OF
NORTHERLY WINDS. SEAS THEN BUILD QUICKLY TO 4-7 FT TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS NE, FIRST ACROSS THE SRN WATERS
THIS EVENING AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHERN WATERS THURSDAY MORNING.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AT 4-7 FT THROUGH THE STRONG CAA PUSH THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
3-5 FT, WITH 2-4 FT IN THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 615 AM EST TUESDAY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER AT
CARTERSVILLE, RICHMOND-WESTHAM, AND THE RICHMOND LOCKS, AND ALSO FOR
THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT FARMVILLE, MATTOAX, AND MATOACA. WARNINGS
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE MEHERRIN RIVER NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE AND THE
NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR RAWLINGS/STONY CREEK/SEBRELL. THESE POINTS
WILL SEE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE
LATEST SITE-SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ022>025.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ060>062-
065>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-512>525.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-064-
509>511.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-654.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ631-632-
634-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...ERI/NB
NEAR TERM...ERI/NB
SHORT TERM...ERI/NB
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...SW
HYDROLOGY...
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