473
FXUS61 KAKQ 200025
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
725 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 322 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS IMPACTING SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TODAY INTO THURSDAY. 5-10" STORM TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA, WITH
2-6" STORM TOTALS EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES INCLUDING DORCHESTER.
SNOW STARTED EARLIER THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SNOW HAS SINCE FILLED IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR
AREA AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENTERED THE PICTURE TO OUR SOUTH
AND A LOW STARTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLIER TODAY. A
STRONG 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND HAS SET UP OVER S-SE VA AND NE
NC, LEADING TO INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES (1-2" PER HOUR) AND RAPID
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATED QUICKLY AS
THIS BAND SET UP. THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA IS STILL SEEING
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN TERMS OF SNOW
TOTALS DUE TO THIS F-GEN BAND AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS. THE STEADY
SNOW WILL END FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/RIC METRO BETWEEN 5 AND
11 PM AS ENERGY FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRANSFERS TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ONE. SNOW IN THE SE COUNTIES WILL FINALLY BRIEFLY
TAPER OFF EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR
THE EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTES ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA, SO STAY OFF THE ROAD IF POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW ON THE BACK END
OF THE SYSTEM AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE THE MID AND UPPER-LEVELS WILL HAVE STARTED
TO DRY OUT, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO SNOW RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH, LEADING
TO A LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW. A QUICK HALF-INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME IN SOME LOCATIONS. AFTER THE END OF THE SNOW BY THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY, WINDS WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE. THIS IS DUE TO THE THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
AND A STRONG HIGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ISSUES
WITH BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LAST ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT AND EASILY MOVED AROUND. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 322 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THESE FRIGID LOWS, COMBINED
WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT WIND
CHILLS. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND FINALLY SETTLE
ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR DOMINATING THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO MODERATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AND HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS WINDS SLACKEN FURTHER AND CLOUD
COVERAGE REMAINS MINIMAL. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND, AND MAINLY DRY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRONG, ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND,
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST BY MIDWEEK, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS.
THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER, WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S SUNDAY, AND WELL INTO THE 50S MONDAY, WITH SOME 60S
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. TURNING A LITTLE COOLER WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN 20S SAT NIGHT, BUT THEN MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 725 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
SNOW CONTINUES AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 7 PM, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM W-E AT RIC AND
SBY. THE SE TERMINALS MAY FINALLY RECEIVE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
PRECIPITATION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE STARTING LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST AND SPREADING EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS. NE WINDS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 322 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS, LEADING TO GALE WARNINGS BEING ISSUED STARTING 1AM TONIGHT.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT LATE THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI
MORNING.
- QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST. WINDS HAVE RELAXED
SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT OFF THE SE COAST, EXPECT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. AS SUCH, WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL AREAS (EXCEPT THE UPPER JAMES/YORK
AND RAPPAHANNOCK) TONIGHT. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS COULD REACH 25 TO 30
KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS, COMBINED WITH MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT
THE WIND SPEED IN N-NE FLOW SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER IN THESE TYPES
OF SITUATIONS, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR THE NE NC
COASTAL WATERS STARTING AT 1AM TONIGHT.
THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THU AM INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
BEFORE THE STRONG PRESSURE RISES DUE TO THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, BY EVENING THE NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO GALE FORCE ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS
AND LAST UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE PROBABILITIES ARE GREATER
THAN 60% FOR MOST OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE RIVERS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AM. PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER IN THE NC WATERS THU NIGHT
(GENERALLY 30-50%), BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE GALE WARNING GOING
THROUGH FRI MORNING THERE AS WELL GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEEP MIXING AND
COLD AIRMASS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NW WINDS
DECREASE TO 10-15 KT OR LESS BY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY
TURN SW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE GALES COMBINED WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 5 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING IN THE BAY AND 4
TO 7 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BY SATURDAY, WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE
TO 1 OR 2 FEET IN THE BAY AND 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 615 AM EST TUESDAY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER AT
CARTERSVILLE, RICHMOND-WESTHAM, AND THE RICHMOND LOCKS, AND ALSO FOR
THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT FARMVILLE, MATTOAX, AND MATOACA. WARNINGS
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE MEHERRIN RIVER NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE AND THE
NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR RAWLINGS/STONY CREEK/SEBRELL. THESE POINTS
WILL SEE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE
LATEST SITE-SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ022>025.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ060>062-
065>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-512>525.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-064-
509>511.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634-654-656.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...ERI/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...AJB/NB
MARINE...MRD
HYDROLOGY...
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