735
FXUS61 KAKQ 200809
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
309 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IMPACTED THE AREA, WITH 8-13" REPORTS
ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS AND PART OF NE NC.
- AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 8 AM AND 2 PM TODAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING, THIS COULD ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS
AS WELL.
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE SNOW HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE
VA AND NE NC. STORM TOTALS HAVE BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE. 8-13" REPORTS
ARE COMMON ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS AND PARTS OF NE NC, WITH A
WIDESPREAD 3-6" FARTHER INLAND. THE STORM TOTAL AT ORF (10.6" AS OF
1 AM) SURPASSED THE 1/3/2018 STORM WHILE THE TOTAL HERE AT THE
OFFICE (6.2") WAS THE LARGEST SINCE 1/3/2018.
WHILE THE STEADY SNOW HAS LARGELY ENDED, ONE FINAL BURST OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AM AND 2 PM TODAY AS ONE FINAL NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWN WITH
RESPECT TO QPF TODAY...BUT STILL FEEL THAT AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO
0.5" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING,
THIS COULD CREATE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ON AREA ROADWAYS. WILL
EVENTUALLY CONVERT ALL OF THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO WINTER WX
ADVISORIES...BUT ANTICIPATE HAVING WINTER HEADLINES UP THROUGH
TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL THREAT. AFTER THE END OF THE
SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE. THIS IS DUE TO THE THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
AND A STRONG HIGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ISSUES
WITH BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LAST ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT AND EASILY MOVED AROUND. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND
CHILLS FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SE VA AND NE NC WHERE THE CRITERIA IS
10F.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH LOWS PLUMMETING
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THESE FRIGID LOWS, COMBINED WITH THE
ELEVATED WINDS, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR SE VA/NE NC
COUNTIES WHERE THE CRITERIA IS 10F. AND WITH THE SNOW COVER, WIND
CHILLS/TEMPS MAY BE A BIT COLDER ACROSS INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC THAN
AREAS FARTHER TO THE NW. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX. THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND FINALLY SETTLE ACROSS OUR
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO
MODERATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS WINDS
SLACKEN FURTHER AND CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS MINIMAL. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN OPTIMAL CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AND MAINLY DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER AIR
TROUGH WILL THEN AMPLIFY IN THE SE BY MIDWEEK AND POTENTIALLY BRING
THE NEXT SYSTEM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL
REACH UP TO THE LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE OUT
WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL IN THE 20S WITH
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST THURSDAY...
SNOW CONTINUES IN THE SE WITH IFR/LIFR AT ORF AND ECG, WHILE RIC AND
SBY HAVE CLEARED OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS. PHF IS RIGHT ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE SNOW BAND AND WILL LIKELY IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR IN THE
NEXT HOUR. SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AT ECG AND ORF BY 9-12Z
WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS. BY THE
AFTERNOON, ALL MAJOR TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE N WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED N-NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MARINE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- MUCH QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
MORNING SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 100 MILES SSE
OF CAPE HATTERAS, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN VA AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS LEADING TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS, WITH 15-20 KT FURTHER N INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND OFFSHORE OF THE VA/MD EASTERN SHORE. GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE S OF THE NC/VA BORDER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT HERE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE (MINUS THE UPPER RIVERS). EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NNW/NW AT 15-25 KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA BY LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A STRONG PUSH OF CAA IS STILL EXPECTED
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 KT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. GALE WARNINGS GO INTO
EFFECT AT 21Z/5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. FOR THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND,
WINDS SHOULD STAY SHY OF GALES AND HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY AND THE GALE WARNINGS EXPIRE AT 15Z/10 AM FRIDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE QUITE VARIABLE
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE S/SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE COLD AIR AND WATER TEMPS TONIGHT, ALONG WITH
THE BLUSTERY WINDS, LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AND WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF THIS IN THE FORECAST.
SEAS RANGE FROM 5-8 FT S TO 2-4 FT N THIS MORNING. IN THE BAY, WAVES
ARE 2-3 FT N OF WINDMILL PT AND 3-4 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND AT THE
MOUTH. ELEVATED SEAS SHOULD SPREAD N THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS N AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OCEAN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FURTHER UPTICK IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONG NW FLOW AND A FEW 7 FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE OUT NEAR 20 NM FROM
SHORE, WITH 3-5 FT (LOCALLY 6 FT) WAVES IN THE BAY. AS WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH, SO WILL THE WAVES/SEAS AND 2-3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH ~1 FT WAVES IN THE BAY.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 1025 PM EST TUESDAY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND-
WESTHAM AND THE RICHMOND LOCKS. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT MATTOAX AND MATOACA. WARNINGS ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR RAWLINGS/STONY
CREEK/SEBRELL. THESE POINTS WILL SEE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING,
WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE
WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE LATEST SITE- SPECIFIC
INFORMATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ022>025.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ060>062-065>069-075>083-085-512>522.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ084-
086>090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR VAZ084-086>090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ048-064-509>511.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...ERI/NB
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/NB
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...SW
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page