723
FXUS61 KAKQ 201531
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1031 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1031 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IMPACTED THE AREA, WITH 8-13" REPORTS
ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS AND PART OF NE NC.
- AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE RICHMOND METRO THEN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BETWEEN 10 AM
AND 2 PM TODAY. WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING, THIS COULD
CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS AS WELL.
ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE CONVERTED TO ADVISORIES, WHICH
RUN THROUGH TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 0.5" OF
SNOW GIVEN COLD TEMPS.
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS WAKING UP TO A BLANKET OF SNOW. SE VA
AND NE NC, INCLUDING THE VA PORTION OF THE EASTERN SHORE, WERE THE
BIG WINNERS WITH AN AVERAGE OF 8-12" OF SNOW. TOTALS QUICKLY TAPERED
OFF FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THAT AREA. THE MIDDLE PENINSULA
AND NORTHERN NECK RECEIVED 6-8", THE TRI-CITIES AND RIC METRO
RECEIVED BETWEEN 3-5", AND AREAS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PIEDMONT RECEIVED AROUND ROUGHLY 1.5-3". CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL DETER A DECENT PORTION OF THE SNOW FROM
MELTING.
ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH NOW AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WHILE THE MID AND UPPER-LEVELS HAVE
STARTED TO DRY OUT, MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE WITHIN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE THROUGH, ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL, ALBEIT LIGHT,
SNOW TO DEVELOP AND FALL. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO SNOW RATIOS ARE ONCE AGAIN VERY HIGH
TODAY WITH THIS LAST BAND OF SNOW. A QUICK HALF-INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LAST ROUND OF SNOW.
AFTER THE END OF THE SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN EARNEST ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE. THIS
IS DUE TO THE THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW THAT BROUGHT
OUR SNOWSTORM CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND A
STRONG HIGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ISSUES WITH
BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SNOW IS LIGHT AND EASILY MOVED
AROUND. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE COASTAL AREAS
AND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
THESE FRIGID LOWS, COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS, WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR SE VA, NE NC, AND THE VA EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES
WHERE THE CRITERIA IS 10F. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND
CHILLS FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SE VA AND NE NC WHERE THE CRITERIA IS
10F.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH LOWS PLUMMETING
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THESE FRIGID LOWS, COMBINED WITH THE
ELEVATED WINDS, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR SE VA/NE NC
COUNTIES WHERE THE CRITERIA IS 10F. AND WITH THE SNOW COVER, WIND
CHILLS/TEMPS MAY BE A BIT COLDER ACROSS INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC THAN
AREAS FARTHER TO THE NW. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX. THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND FINALLY SETTLE ACROSS OUR
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO
MODERATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS WINDS
SLACKEN FURTHER AND CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS MINIMAL. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN OPTIMAL CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AND MAINLY DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER AIR
TROUGH WILL THEN AMPLIFY IN THE SE BY MIDWEEK AND POTENTIALLY BRING
THE NEXT SYSTEM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL
REACH UP TO THE LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE OUT
WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL IN THE 20S WITH
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 620 AM EST THURSDAY...
THE BULK OF THE SNOW HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL MAJOR TERMINALS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR
CONDITIONS. BY THE AFTERNOON, ALL MAJOR TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES CLEARING AROUND 03Z/21. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY FROM THE NNW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED N-NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MARINE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- MUCH QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
MORNING SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 100 MILES SSE
OF CAPE HATTERAS, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN VA AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS LEADING TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS, WITH 15-20 KT FURTHER N INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND OFFSHORE OF THE VA/MD EASTERN SHORE. GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE S OF THE NC/VA BORDER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT HERE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE (MINUS THE UPPER RIVERS). EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NNW/NW AT 15-25 KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA BY LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A STRONG PUSH OF CAA IS STILL EXPECTED
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 KT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. GALE WARNINGS GO INTO
EFFECT AT 21Z/5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. FOR THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND,
WINDS SHOULD STAY SHY OF GALES AND HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY AND THE GALE WARNINGS EXPIRE AT 15Z/10 AM FRIDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE QUITE VARIABLE
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE S/SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE COLD AIR AND WATER TEMPS TONIGHT, ALONG WITH
THE BLUSTERY WINDS, LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AND WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF THIS IN THE FORECAST.
SEAS RANGE FROM 5-8 FT S TO 2-4 FT N THIS MORNING. IN THE BAY, WAVES
ARE 2-3 FT N OF WINDMILL PT AND 3-4 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND AT THE
MOUTH. ELEVATED SEAS SHOULD SPREAD N THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS N AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OCEAN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FURTHER UPTICK IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONG NW FLOW AND A FEW 7 FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE OUT NEAR 20 NM FROM
SHORE, WITH 3-5 FT (LOCALLY 6 FT) WAVES IN THE BAY. AS WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH, SO WILL THE WAVES/SEAS AND 2-3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH ~1 FT WAVES IN THE BAY.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 620 AM EST THURSDAY...
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE CHICKAHOMINY
NEAR PROVIDENCE FORGE. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
APPOMATTOX RIVER AT MATTOAX AND MATOACA. WARNINGS ALSO CONTINUE
FOR THE NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR SEBRELL. THESE POINTS WILL SEE MINOR
TO MODERATE FLOODING, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE LATEST SITE-
SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
CLIMATE
NORFOLK'S OFFICIAL SNOW STORM TOTAL THROUGH 7 AM EST THIS MORNING
HAS BEEN 11.0", RANKING AS THE 9TH HIGHEST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ON
RECORD (TIED WITH FEB 6-7, 1936...MAR 2, 1927...AND DEC 2-3, 1896).
THIS IS THE GREATEST SINGLE STORM TOTAL SINCE THE DEC 25-26, 2010
EVENT (14.2"). WITH 11.1" NOW OBSERVED FOR THE MONTH, THIS IS ALSO
THE 8TH SNOWIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD AND SNOWIEST FEBRUARY SINCE 2015
(11.5"). A LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY, AND COULD ADD SLIGHTLY TO THESE AMOUNTS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ060>062-065>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-512>525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ084-086>090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ048-064-509>511.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...ERI/NB
NEAR TERM...ERI/NB
SHORT TERM...ERI/NB
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...SW
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...LKB
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