601
FXUS61 KAKQ 201930
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
230 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND
CHILLS FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SE VA AND NE NC WHERE THE CRITERIA IS
10F.
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NE NC
COUNTIES, BUT LIGHT FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH THE NE NC COUNTIES, WITH A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING IN
THE PIEDMONT REGION AND ACROSS THE RIC METRO AREA. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS OUR SE VA AND NE NC COUNTIES AS THESE
SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE
PICKED UP AN ADDITIONAL QUICK FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH DURING THESE
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
LOOKING ALOFT, THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CURRENT ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHILE THE
LOW THAT HELPED GENERATE OUR IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS IN OUR SE
COUNTIES IS MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC. AFTER THE
END OF THE SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
EARNEST ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE, AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES
TIGHTENS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SNOW IS LIGHT AND EASILY MOVED AROUND. HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND
EASTERN SHORE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. THESE FRIGID LOWS, COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS,
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 DEGREES ESPECIALLY
IN THE AREAS WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SE VA, NE NC, AND
THE VA EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES WHERE THE CRITERIA IS 10F. AS THE
LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RELAX.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND FINALLY SETTLE ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO
MODERATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS WINDS
SLACKEN FURTHER AND CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS MINIMAL. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN OPTIMAL CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHOVED SOUTH DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS CLIPPER SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO
SNOW MELTING RELATIVELY QUICKLY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AND MAINLY DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER AIR
TROUGH WILL THEN AMPLIFY IN THE SE BY MIDWEEK AND POTENTIALLY BRING
THE NEXT SYSTEM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL
REACH UP TO THE LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE OUT
WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL IN THE 20S WITH
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1253 PM EST THURSDAY...
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS ECG, BRINGING VIS DOWN TO
IFR. A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE BAND ARE MOVING THROUGH, WITH
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MAINLY ECG AND
POSSIBLY ORF LATER. SBY AND RIC HAVE LIKELY SEE THE LAST OF THE
SNOW, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THESE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER THIS LAST BURST OF SNOW
MOVES THROUGH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON, AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED. BLSN IS
POSSIBLE AT ORF TODAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED THAT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED N-NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MARINE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- MUCH QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
MORNING SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 100 MILES SSE
OF CAPE HATTERAS, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN VA AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS LEADING TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS, WITH 15-20 KT FURTHER N INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND OFFSHORE OF THE VA/MD EASTERN SHORE. GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE S OF THE NC/VA BORDER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT HERE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE (MINUS THE UPPER RIVERS). EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NNW/NW AT 15-25 KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA BY LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A STRONG PUSH OF CAA IS STILL EXPECTED
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 KT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. GALE WARNINGS GO INTO
EFFECT AT 21Z/5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. FOR THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND,
WINDS SHOULD STAY SHY OF GALES AND HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY AND THE GALE WARNINGS EXPIRE AT 15Z/10 AM FRIDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE QUITE VARIABLE
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE S/SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE COLD AIR AND WATER TEMPS TONIGHT, ALONG WITH
THE BLUSTERY WINDS, LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AND WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF THIS IN THE FORECAST.
SEAS RANGE FROM 5-8 FT S TO 2-4 FT N THIS MORNING. IN THE BAY, WAVES
ARE 2-3 FT N OF WINDMILL PT AND 3-4 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND AT THE
MOUTH. ELEVATED SEAS SHOULD SPREAD N THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS N AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OCEAN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FURTHER UPTICK IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONG NW FLOW AND A FEW 7 FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE OUT NEAR 20 NM FROM
SHORE, WITH 3-5 FT (LOCALLY 6 FT) WAVES IN THE BAY. AS WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH, SO WILL THE WAVES/SEAS AND 2-3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH ~1 FT WAVES IN THE BAY.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 620 AM EST THURSDAY...
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE CHICKAHOMINY
NEAR PROVIDENCE FORGE. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
APPOMATTOX RIVER AT MATTOAX AND MATOACA. WARNINGS ALSO CONTINUE
FOR THE NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR SEBRELL. THESE POINTS WILL SEE MINOR
TO MODERATE FLOODING, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE LATEST SITE-
SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
CLIMATE
NORFOLK'S OFFICIAL SNOW STORM TOTAL THROUGH 7 AM EST THIS MORNING
HAS BEEN 11.0", RANKING AS THE 9TH HIGHEST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ON
RECORD (TIED WITH FEB 6-7, 1936...MAR 2, 1927...AND DEC 2-3, 1896).
THIS IS THE GREATEST SINGLE STORM TOTAL SINCE THE DEC 25-26, 2010
EVENT (14.2"). WITH 11.1" NOW OBSERVED FOR THE MONTH, THIS IS ALSO
THE 8TH SNOWIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD AND SNOWIEST FEBRUARY SINCE 2015
(11.5"). A LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY, AND COULD ADD SLIGHTLY TO THESE AMOUNTS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-
065>067-079>081-087>089-092-093-095>098-523>525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ084-086>090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
SYNOPSIS...ERI/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...SW
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
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