812
FXUS61 KAKQ 202025
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND
CHILLS FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SE VA AND NE NC WHERE THE CRITERIA IS
10F.
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NE NC
COUNTIES, BUT LIGHT FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH THE NE NC COUNTIES, WITH A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING IN
THE PIEDMONT REGION AND ACROSS THE RIC METRO AREA. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS OUR SE VA AND NE NC COUNTIES AS THESE
SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE
PICKED UP AN ADDITIONAL QUICK FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH DURING THESE
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
LOOKING ALOFT, THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CURRENT ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHILE THE
LOW THAT HELPED GENERATE OUR IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS IN OUR SE
COUNTIES IS MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC. AFTER THE
END OF THE SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
EARNEST ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE, AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES
TIGHTENS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SNOW IS LIGHT AND EASILY MOVED AROUND. HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND
EASTERN SHORE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. THESE FRIGID LOWS, COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS,
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 DEGREES ESPECIALLY
IN THE AREAS WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SE VA, NE NC, AND
THE VA EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES WHERE THE CRITERIA IS 10F. AS THE
LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RELAX.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND FINALLY SETTLE ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO
MODERATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS WINDS
SLACKEN FURTHER AND CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS MINIMAL. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN OPTIMAL CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHOVED SOUTH DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS CLIPPER SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO
SNOW MELTING RELATIVELY QUICKLY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND MAINLY DRY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRONG, ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO GREENLAND, WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN/BECOME CENTERED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST REGION, AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ESE ACROSS
CANADA MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER/FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW LATE TUESDAY, WHILE THE CMC IS THE
STRONGEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN
MAINLY DRY, BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE
WEST COAST BY MIDWEEK, TRANSLATING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK, ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY.
THIS PATTERN WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING WELL TO OUR NORTH OFTEN
LEADS TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE MODELS PREDICT THIS TIME
OF YEAR, SO HAVE TRENDED HIGHS TO THE WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE FOR
MON-TUE (AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NBM NEAR THE COAST
IN SE VA DUE TO OFFSHORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW). HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S TO AROUND 60F MONDAY, RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S (AND
POSSIBLY WARMER) MOST AREAS TUESDAY. A LITTLE COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY,
BUT STILL MILD BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S (AREAS NEAR THE COAST WILL TEND TO SEE THE LARGER TEMPERATURE
DROP COMPARED TO TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ONSHORE). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY, BUT THEN ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR TEMPERATURES
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT SYSTEM; POTENTIALLY STILL
QUITE WARM BUT IT COULD BE MUCH COOLER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES IF ONSHORE FLOW DOMINATES.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1253 PM EST THURSDAY...
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS ECG, BRINGING VIS DOWN TO
IFR. A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE BAND ARE MOVING THROUGH, WITH
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MAINLY ECG AND
POSSIBLY ORF LATER. SBY AND RIC HAVE LIKELY SEE THE LAST OF THE
SNOW, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THESE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER THIS LAST BURST OF SNOW
MOVES THROUGH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON, AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED. BLSN IS
POSSIBLE AT ORF TODAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED THAT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED N-NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MARINE ZONES THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- MUCH QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 996 MB LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE DELMARVA COAST AS OF THIS WRITING, WITH COLD 1045+MB SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAS BRIEFLY WEAKENED,
ALLOWING FOR NNW WINDS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO ~25 KT IN THE BAY AND OFFSHORE. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-4 FT
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 5- 7 FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. WAVES WERE
GENERALLY 1-2 FT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BAY, RIVERS AND SOUND.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN THIS EVENING, IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING QUICKLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG PUSH OF
CAA THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT. N WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS. GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
FOR THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND, IN-HOUSE WIND PROBS CONTINUE TO
POINT TOWARD WINDS STAYING IN STRONG SCA RANGE, WITH 20-25 KT N
WINDS GUSTING TO ~30 KT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT THE GALE WARNINGS GET REPLACED BY SCA,
WITH SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND AND VA RIVERS, LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING MORE BENIGN
BOATING CONDITIONS OVER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING S/SW
10-15 KT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 620 AM EST THURSDAY...
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE CHICKAHOMINY
NEAR PROVIDENCE FORGE. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
APPOMATTOX RIVER AT MATTOAX AND MATOACA. WARNINGS ALSO CONTINUE
FOR THE NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR SEBRELL. THESE POINTS WILL SEE MINOR
TO MODERATE FLOODING, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE LATEST SITE-
SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
CLIMATE
NORFOLK'S OFFICIAL SNOW STORM TOTAL THROUGH 7 AM EST THIS MORNING
HAS BEEN 11.0", RANKING AS THE 9TH HIGHEST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ON
RECORD (TIED WITH FEB 6-7, 1936...MAR 2, 1927...AND DEC 2-3, 1896).
THIS IS THE GREATEST SINGLE STORM TOTAL SINCE THE DEC 25-26, 2010
EVENT (14.2"). WITH 11.1" NOW OBSERVED FOR THE MONTH, THIS IS ALSO
THE 8TH SNOWIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD AND SNOWIEST FEBRUARY SINCE 2015
(11.5"). A LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY, AND COULD ADD SLIGHTLY TO THESE AMOUNTS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-
065>067-079>081-087>089-092-093-095>098-523>525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ084-086>090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
SYNOPSIS...ERI/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...MAM/SW
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
CLIMATE...AKQ
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