686
FXUS61 KAKQ 210532
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1232 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 955 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND
CHILLS FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SE VA AND NE NC WHERE THE CRITERIA IS
10F.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
WERE LOWERED ~1-2 DEGREES IN SPOTS WITH TEMPS ALREADY FALLING
QUITE QUICKLY IN COMBINATION WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WHERE THE CRITERIA IS ONLY 10 DEGREES F. ALL OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 TO
10 DEGREES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SPS THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE BLACK ICE/REFREEZE THREAT TONIGHT. MANY SECONDARY
ROADWAYS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA)
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/SLUSH ON THEM, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT -
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO REFREEZE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH THE NE NC COUNTIES, WITH A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING IN
THE PIEDMONT REGION AND ACROSS THE RIC METRO AREA. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS OUR SE VA AND NE NC COUNTIES AS THESE
SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE
PICKED UP AN ADDITIONAL QUICK FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH DURING THESE
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
LOOKING ALOFT, THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CURRENT ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHILE THE
LOW THAT HELPED GENERATE OUR IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS IN OUR SE
COUNTIES IS MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC. AFTER THE
END OF THE SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
EARNEST ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE, AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES
TIGHTENS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SNOW IS LIGHT AND EASILY MOVED AROUND. HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND
EASTERN SHORE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. THESE FRIGID LOWS, COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS,
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 DEGREES ESPECIALLY
IN THE AREAS WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SE VA, NE NC, AND
THE VA EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES WHERE THE CRITERIA IS 10F. AS THE
LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RELAX.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND FINALLY SETTLE ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO
MODERATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS WINDS
SLACKEN FURTHER AND CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS MINIMAL. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN OPTIMAL CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHOVED SOUTH DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS CLIPPER SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO
SNOW MELTING RELATIVELY QUICKLY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND MAINLY DRY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRONG, ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO GREENLAND, WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN/BECOME CENTERED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST REGION, AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ESE ACROSS
CANADA MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER/FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW LATE TUESDAY, WHILE THE CMC IS THE
STRONGEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN
MAINLY DRY, BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE
WEST COAST BY MIDWEEK, TRANSLATING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK, ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY.
THIS PATTERN WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING WELL TO OUR NORTH OFTEN
LEADS TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE MODELS PREDICT THIS TIME
OF YEAR, SO HAVE TRENDED HIGHS TO THE WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE FOR
MON-TUE (AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NBM NEAR THE COAST
IN SE VA DUE TO OFFSHORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW). HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S TO AROUND 60F MONDAY, RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S (AND
POSSIBLY WARMER) MOST AREAS TUESDAY. A LITTLE COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY,
BUT STILL MILD BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S (AREAS NEAR THE COAST WILL TEND TO SEE THE LARGER TEMPERATURE
DROP COMPARED TO TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ONSHORE). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY, BUT THEN ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR TEMPERATURES
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT SYSTEM; POTENTIALLY STILL
QUITE WARM BUT IT COULD BE MUCH COOLER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES IF ONSHORE FLOW DOMINATES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST FRIDAY...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MOST TERMINALS ARE
SKC EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH SCT-BKN 5000 FT CIGS REMAIN NEAR
SBY. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KT W/ GUSTS TO 20 KT, EXCEPT
15-20 KT W/ GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AT SBY. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 21Z
OR SO AND LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL FRI NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH VFR/DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 305 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED N-NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MARINE ZONES THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- MUCH QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 996 MB LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE DELMARVA COAST AS OF THIS WRITING, WITH COLD 1045+MB SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAS BRIEFLY WEAKENED,
ALLOWING FOR NNW WINDS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO ~25 KT IN THE BAY AND OFFSHORE. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-4 FT
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 5- 7 FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. WAVES WERE
GENERALLY 1-2 FT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BAY, RIVERS AND SOUND.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN THIS EVENING, IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING QUICKLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG PUSH OF
CAA THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT. N WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS. GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
FOR THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND, IN-HOUSE WIND PROBS CONTINUE TO
POINT TOWARD WINDS STAYING IN STRONG SCA RANGE, WITH 20-25 KT N
WINDS GUSTING TO ~30 KT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT THE GALE WARNINGS GET REPLACED BY SCA,
WITH SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND AND VA RIVERS, LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING MORE BENIGN
BOATING CONDITIONS OVER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING S/SW
10-15 KT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 640 PM EST THURSDAY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE APPOMATTOX RIVER
AT MATTOAX AND THE NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR SEBRELL. THESE POINTS ARE
SEEING MINOR FLOODING, WITH WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR
THE LATEST SITE- SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
CLIMATE
NORFOLK'S OFFICIAL SNOW STORM TOTAL THROUGH 7 AM EST THIS MORNING
HAS BEEN 11.0", RANKING AS THE 9TH HIGHEST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ON
RECORD (TIED WITH FEB 6-7, 1936...MAR 2, 1927...AND DEC 2-3, 1896).
THIS IS THE GREATEST SINGLE STORM TOTAL SINCE THE DEC 25-26, 2010
EVENT (14.2"). WITH 11.1" NOW OBSERVED FOR THE MONTH, THIS IS ALSO
THE 8TH SNOWIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD AND SNOWIEST FEBRUARY SINCE 2015
(11.5"). A LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY, AND COULD ADD SLIGHTLY TO THESE AMOUNTS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ084-
086>090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SYNOPSIS...ERI/NB
NEAR TERM...AJB/NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MAM/SW
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page