113
FXUS61 KAKQ 211048
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
548 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LEADS TO DRY WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 545 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIND CHILLS OF 5-10 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR
THE AREA. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SE VA AND NE NC.
- SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
REGION IS NOW LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE
CONTINENTAL US, STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE (~1042 MB) IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL MIDWEST STATES, WITH SFC RIDGING EXTENDING EASTWARD
INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FINAL PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR A
PASSING CLOUD OR TWO ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE. A RESIDUAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO ELEVATED WINDS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST,
WITH LIGHTER, BUT NOT CALM, FLOW INLAND. WIND CHILLS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS GIVEN TEMPS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S AND WINDS 5-10 MPH. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SE VA AND THE VA EASTERN SHORE THROUGH
10 AM.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES FURTHER E DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE ACCELERATES FURTHER INTO THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF THE ARCTIC. HOWEVER, NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 20-
30 MPH (HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE COAST). BROAD-
SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH FAVORS CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE THE FULL
SUNSHINE, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH OVER 40 F TODAY. MID-
UPPER 30S ARE FORECAST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, INCLUDING
OVER THE SNOWPACK, WITH LOWER 40S FROM I-95 AND POINTS W. THESE
HIGHS ARE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
COLD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LESS WIND. LOWS IN THE TEENS INLAND AND
LOWER 20S AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- COOL WITH INCREASED CLOUDS SATURDAY; MILDER AND SUNNIER SUNDAY.
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS STARTS THIS WEEKEND. THE SFC
PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WHILE THE UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 40S AREAWIDE, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF OUR VA AND NC COUNTIES (STAYING IN THE UPPER 40S ON THE
EASTERN SHORE). THIS SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED MELTING OF ANY
RESIDUAL SNOWFALL. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT AND MID
20S-LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING
INCREASED MID-HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY. SUNDAY STAYS SUNNY OR MOSTLY
SUNNY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND MAINLY DRY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
NOT MUCH CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A STRONG, ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH CENTERED FROM NORTHERN
QUEBEC TO GREENLAND, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN/BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION, AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ESE ACROSS CANADA MONDAY/TUESDAY IN THE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES REMAIN ACROSS THE GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, ALL MODELS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-STARVED E OF THE APPALACHIANS, AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE N AND NW TUESDAY, HOWEVER. THERE REMAINS DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE
WEST COAST BY MIDWEEK, TRANSLATING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS
WILL FAVOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SFC COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY APPROACHES THE AREA.
THIS PATTERN WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING WELL TO OUR NORTH OFTEN LEADS
TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE MODELS PREDICT THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO
CONTINUE TO FORECAST HIGHS ON THE WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE FOR MON-TUE.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60F MONDAY, RISING INTO THE LOW-
MID 60S (AND POSSIBLY WARMER) MOST AREAS TUESDAY. A LITTLE COOLER
FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL MILD BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S (AREAS NEAR THE COAST WILL TEND TO SEE THE
LARGER TEMPERATURE DROP COMPARED TO TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ONSHORE). WITH SW-NW FLOW GENERALLY PREVAILING THROUGH THE
WEEK, THE EASTERN SHORE REMAINS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN LAND
AREAS W OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TREND ABOVE FREEZING
BY MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. THURSDAY WILL BE MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM; POTENTIALLY STILL QUITE WARM BUT IT COULD BE MUCH COOLER IF
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY AND/OR RAINFALL IS MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 550 AM EST FRIDAY...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TODAY AND THE WEEKEND. ALL TERMINALS ARE
SKC THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. NW
WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KT W/
GUSTS TO 20 KT, EXCEPT 15-20 KT W/ GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AT SBY.
WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 22Z OR SO AND LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH VFR/DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 320 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED N-NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. GALE WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- MUCH QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
1042MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, ~990MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED
SW OF NOVA SCOTIA. STRONG CAA IS OCCURRING BETWEEN THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AND THE STRONG HIGH TO THE W. THE WIND IS NW 25-30KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35- 40KT FOR THE CHES. BAY AND OCEAN, AND
GENERALLY NW 15-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS RANGE
FROM 4-6FT S TO 5-7FT N WITH 3-5FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN AND CHES. BAY, WITH
SCAS ELSEWHERE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY SLACKEN WITH THE WIND STEADILY DIMINISHING BY LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN TO NW 15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KT
FOR THE CHES. BAY AND OCEAN, AND 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT
ELSEWHERE. SCAS FOR THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND END AT
18Z/1PM. GALE WARNINGS ARE SCHEDULED TO END AT 15Z/10AM FOR THE
CHES. BAY AND OCEAN AND WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH SCAS. A
SECONDARY SURGE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE CHES. BAY THIS EVENING, WITH
SCA CONDITIONS LASTING TO ABOUT 06- 09Z/1-4AM. SEAS WILL BEGIN
THE DAY 4-6FT S TO 5-7FT N, AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-5FT LATER THIS
AFTN INTO TONIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS (MAINLY FOR SEAS) THROUGH
06-09Z/1-4AM.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST
SATURDAY, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A 10-15KT NNW WIND BECOMING SW 5-10KT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY (10- 15KT NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT). HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SSW WIND GENERALLY 8-12KT. A WEAK COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
CROSSES THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 2-3FT THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH 1 FOOT TO
OCCASIONALLY 2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 640 PM EST THURSDAY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE APPOMATTOX RIVER
AT MATTOAX AND THE NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR SEBRELL. THESE POINTS ARE
SEEING MINOR FLOODING, WITH WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR
THE LATEST SITE- SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
CLIMATE
NORFOLK'S OFFICIAL SNOW STORM TOTAL THROUGH THURSDAY WAS 11.0",
RANKING AS THE 9TH HIGHEST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ON RECORD (TIED
WITH FEB 6-7, 1936...MAR 2, 1927...AND DEC 2-3, 1896). THIS IS
THE GREATEST SINGLE STORM TOTAL SINCE THE DEC 25-26, 2010 EVENT
(14.2"). WITH 11.1" NOW OBSERVED FOR THE MONTH, THIS IS ALSO THE
8TH SNOWIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD AND SNOWIEST FEBRUARY SINCE
2015 (11.5").
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ084-
086>090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
650-652-654-656-658.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
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