535
FXUS61 KAKQ 221120
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
620 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS NOT UNTIL
LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 615 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH ITS CENTER (~1038 MB) OVER THE
OH VALLEY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND BRIEF RIDGING IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE A SHORTWAVE SLIDES
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY, TEMPS ARE COLD AND
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S, EXCEPT IN THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA AND NE NC. THE
COOLEST TEMPS ARE LOCATED OVER CHESAPEAKE SOUTHWARD INTO
INTERIOR NE NC WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW PACK REMAINS. THE TEMP
EVEN FELL TO 16 F AT ELIZABETH CITY EARLIER AND THIS
PRELIMINARILY WOULD BE A RECORD LOW FOR FEBRUARY 22ND. WOULDN'T
BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS (BRIEFLY) DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH 8 AM OR SO. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED
BY THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH HIGHS (MID 40S) ARE FORECASTED TO BE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN HIGHER MID- LEVEL
HEIGHTS. THAT SHORTWAVE BRINGS SCATTERED MID- HIGH CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH BROKEN OR OVERCAST SKIES BY THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS OFFSHORE. FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN THE MID-UPPER
20S AREAWIDE, BUT COULD SEE SOME COLDER READINGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS, AS WELL AS OVER REGIONS OF SNOW COVER.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MILDER SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY WITH DRY/SUNNY CONDITIONS.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS TO START THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES OFF
THE SE COAST. OUTSIDE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT,
EXPECTING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND AND HIGHS SUNDAY WARM INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 40S ON THE
EASTERN SHORE. WITH THE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE, MODEST WARM
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY. MOST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 F, BUT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF A GOOD CHUNK OF AREA WARMS INTO THE
LOWER 60S GIVEN THE SUNNY SKIES AND LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.
AGAIN, IT REMAINS CHILLIER (IN THE MID 50S) ON THE EASTERN SHORE
GIVEN THE FLOW OFF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MILDER TEMPS PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ABOVE-FREEZING LOWS IN THE MID- UPPER
30S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.
ON TUESDAY, A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT SLIDES SE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND
FLATTER WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THERE IS NOW VERY LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. THEREFORE, HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES
AND THICKNESS TOOLS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. NBM SEEMS TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP (THOUGH IS HIGHER THAN 24 HRS
AGO), SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO QUITE A BIT ABOVE THESE BLENDED TOOLS
AND CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED THICKNESS AND MOS GUIDANCE. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF VA AND NC W OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE.
FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE TEMPS MAY BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE
UPDATES. IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING!
WITH VIRTUALLY NO COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT/CLIPPER SYSTEM,
SIMILARLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE
FLOW FIELD WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER.
THUS, IT WILL LIKELY BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 50S AT THE COAST WHERE
THE FLOW LIKELY TURNS ONSHORE. FURTHER INLAND, TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S ARE AGAIN EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE AND WED NIGHT
ARE IN THE MID 30S AND MID 40S, RESPECTIVELY.
BY THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS, DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THEN CROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY, WITH LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE
AREA AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM LIKELY BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AND DEPICTS A LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY, ONLY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND NORTHERN STREAM ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE
IS ALSO LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR THUNDER GIVEN VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY. A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY
GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE WARMEST FOR SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DRYING OUT BY FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AND
ANOMALOUSLY LOW UPPER HEIGHTS (BRIEFLY) MOVE OVER. TEMPS TURN
COOLER, BUT REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
LOOKS TO SETTLE S OF THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 615 AM EST SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
12Z/22 TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING TO THE S-SW THIS EVENING
(WIND SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT...5 KT OR LESS). CLEAR SKIES TO
START THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING MID- HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z OR SO THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA WITH VFR/DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY TO MID-
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
1034MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE WIND IS N 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT FOR THE OCEAN AND CHES.
BAY, AND 5-10KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-
4FT OFFSHORE, WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE COAST TODAY, AND THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL REMAIN N AND DIMINISH TO 5-10KT THIS MORNING, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTN, AND
THEN S TO SW 5-10KT BY LATER THIS AFTN. THE WIND WILL BECOME SW 10-
15KT TONIGHT FOR THE CHES. BAY AND OCEAN N OF CAPE HENRY, AND SW 5-
10KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH 1-2FT
WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. A WEAK TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY RESULTING IN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH SPEEDS OF 5-10KT.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN VERY WEAK FLOW, GENERALLY E TO SE,
BUT LOCALLY VARIABLE. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2FT WITH ~1FT WAVES IN THE
CHES. BAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
WIND BECOMING S 5-10KT MONDAY AND SSW 5-10KT SOUTH TO 10-15KT NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NW, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE ~2FT MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. 22/00Z NUMERICAL
MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 905 PM EST THURSDAY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NOTTOWAY RIVER
NEAR SEBRELL. THIS POINT IS SEEING MINOR FLOODING, WITH WATER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE
WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE LATEST SITE-SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
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