944
FXUS61 KAKQ 271038
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
638 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TODAY, ALLOWING FOR DIMINISHING
WINDS WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON
FRIDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY,
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AGAIN TODAY, BUT WITH LESS WIND.
- AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW JUST TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES (WITH LIGHT WINDS), TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 30S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY AROUND 32F THANKS TO THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WILL NOTE THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM DOES NOT START UNTIL APRIL 1ST, SO NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
ARE IN EFFECT.
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH ANOTHER VERY DRY
DAY EXPECTED, BUT THE WIND WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER GIVEN THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE ONLY (PARTIAL) EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE
MD EASTERN SHORE, WHERE WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 20 MPH. IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES/STATE AGENCIES, WILL BE ISSUING AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER FOR OUR MD EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES. WILL HOLD OFF ON SPSS
ELSEWHERE GIVEN SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 MPH. HAVE UNDERCUT NBM DEW
PTS ONCE AGAIN, SO MIN RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO 20-25%. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 60-65F (UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE).
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TURNING WARMER FRIDAY, BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF I-64.
- VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY, AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AS WELL AS RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH A SW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS,
AVERAGING IN THE LOW-MID 40S. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST
OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE VA
NORTHERN NECK AND ESPECIALLY THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. IT WILL BE
MUCH WARMER (70S) IN MOST AREAS WITH COOLER TEMPS (65-70F) AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE FA. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE W OF I-95 IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING TO THE NE
BY AFTN/EVENING. SKIES AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FARTHER N/NE. CONFIDENCE IN THESE
SHOWERS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME AND POPS REMAIN 15 TO 30%, WITH QPF
AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. WILL NOTE THAT
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DOWN WITH POPS
(CLOSER TO THE LOWER NBM). DRY AND WARM FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
THE CWA INTO THE WARM SECTOR. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 50S, WITH HIGHS
SAT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, ALONG WITH A BREEZY SW WIND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND.
- A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
- SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY TRACK NE FROM THE
MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THE
FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES BRIEFLY FALL SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON MONDAY (AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO MON NIGHT
NEAR THE COAST). TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 80F WITH DEW PTS RISING INTO
THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR MODEST SFC-BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY THE
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL ALSO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT AT THIS RANGE
REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WX MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY GOING WITH NBM...AND WILL NOTE THAT BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/THE OVERALL SETUP FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ON MONDAY IS LIKELY HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY THE NBM ATTM.
PRECIP CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH COOLER, DRY, BUT SEASONABLE WX EXPECTED ON TUE/WED WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 635 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE
12Z/27 TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS BECOME NW (LOCALLY N NEAR THE
COAST) AT 6-12 KT BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
AT SBY FROM 15-22Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W OR SW BY LATE AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. COULD SEE FEW CUMULUS
DURING THE AFTN AT AROUND 6000-7000 FT AGL BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS ATTM. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS FRIDAY (MAINLY AT RIC/SBY).
INTERMITTENT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 335 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
LOWER JAMES.
- SW WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH SCAS POSSIBLE.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO
TUE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH LIGHT NW WINDS APART FROM 10-15 KT ACROSS THE N WATERS.
WINDS BECOME SE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
OFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME S THIS EVENING, INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE CHES BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND VA COASTAL
WATERS. WIND PROBS FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60-
80% WHILE WIND PROBS FOR 25 KT GUSTS WERE 30-50% ACROSS THE VA
COASTAL WATERS. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED SCAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH 7 AM FRI FOR THE CHES BAY AND LOWER JAMES. WILL NOTE THAT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ACROSS THE VA COASTAL WATERS GIVEN LOWER WIND
PROBS, SEAS REMAINING BELOW 5 FT, AND THE SHORT DURATION OF 25 KT
GUSTS (LIKELY LESS THAN THREE HOURS). AS SUCH, HAVE KEPT THE VA
COASTAL WATERS OUT OF THE SCAS FOR NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY SURGE TO 25 KT
GUSTS CAN BE HANDLED WITH A MWS.
WINDS BECOME SW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI, DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FRI. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS FRI NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
SAT WITH SCAS POSSIBLE. WIND PROBS FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 80-
100% WITH WIND PROBS FOR 25 KT GUSTS 40-60% (LOCALLY 80%) ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA SAT THROUGH SUN BEFORE
S WINDS BECOME ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND/CANADA MON. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MON EVENING/EARLY MON NIGHT.
WINDS LIKELY INCREASE AS THEY BECOME NW/N BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON
NIGHT INTO TUE WITH SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE CAA.
WAVES AND SEAS OF 1-2 FT AND 2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING
SUBSIDE TO MAINLY 1 FOOT AND 2 FT RESPECTIVELY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT.
SEAS OF 4-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED SEAS IS EXPECTED SUN INTO TUE AS SEAS
BUILD TO 4-6 FT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MIN RH EXPECTED TO BE 20-25%
IN MOST AREAS. FIRE CONCERNS ARE LOWER IN MOST AREAS GIVEN FORECAST
SUSTAINED WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10 MPH. HOWEVER, SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH WITH 20+ MPH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE. THEREFORE, WILL ISSUE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES (IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES AND STATE AGENCIES) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ638.
SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ
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