513
FXUS61 KAKQ 280458
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1258 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ON FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOWS AROUND 40 OVERNIGHT UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SE ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS EARLY THIS
EVENING, AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
THE EASTERN SHORE STAYS COOLER GIVEN THE WIND DIRECTION OFF THE
STILL-COOL CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERS.
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT SSE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z. LIGHT WINDS
VEER AROUND TO THE SSW OVERNIGHT, AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER
(HIGHEST WELL INLAND) WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S, WITH SOME UPPER
30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR N AND ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TURNING WARMER FRIDAY, BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF I-64.
- VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY SATURDAY.
- WARMTH CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WELL OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY, AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AS WELL AS RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD. THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY
STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE VA NORTHERN NECK AND ESPECIALLY THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER (MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S)
IN MOST AREAS WITH COOLER TEMPS (UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S) AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE FA. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE NW IN THE LATE MORNING, SHIFTING
TO THE NE BY AFTN/EVENING. THE AFTERNOON CAMS ARE GENERALLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHOWER COVERAGE AND HAVE CONFINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE POPS N OF RICHMOND, EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
NECK AND MD EASTERN SHORE. SKIES AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FARTHER N/NE.
AGAIN, CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AND ANY QPF AMOUNTS WOULD
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
OUTSIDE OF THIS POTENTIAL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AND
TEMP/DEW POINT COMBINATIONS LEAD TO RH VALUES IN THE 25-40%
RANGE. WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH, AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DRY AND WARM FRI
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE CWA INTO THE WARM SECTOR. LOWS FRI
NIGHT IN THE 50S, WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S,
ALONG WITH A BREEZY SW WIND. REMAINING DRY AND MILD SAT NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 F.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER THE AREA AND A DEEPER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES NE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR SUNDAY AND AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SPRINKLE/SHOWER OR TWO.
POPS ARE QUITE LOW DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 20% W OF I-95 FOR MOST
OF SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL MILD, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S. A FEW AREAS COULD REACH 80 F ACROSS THE EASTERN FA,
ESPECIALLY WHERE LOWER CLOUD COVER IS REALIZED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND.
- A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
- SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
PROGGED TO QUICKLY TRACK NE FROM THE MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A WAVE OF
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WAA INCREASES AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. THE ECMWF HAS HIGHER COVERAGE OF PRECIP
DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT WILL DEPICT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS (20-30%)
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. PRECIP CHANCES BRIEFLY EARLIER SUNDAY BEFORE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY (AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO
MON NIGHT NEAR THE COAST). TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 80F WITH DEW PTS
RISING INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR MODEST SFC-BASED INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL ALSO BE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT
AT THIS RANGE REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WX MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS A 15% SEVERE RISK FOR MONDAY, BUT NOTES THAT
REFINEMENTS ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMING DAYS AS FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES DECREASES. POPS ARE WELL INTO THE LIKELY RANGE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. PRECIP
CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
COOLER, DRY, BUT SEASONABLE WX EXPECTED ON TUE/WED WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 60S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND POTENTIALLY BEGINS AS WE NEAR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE 00Z/28 TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA WHILE SLIDING
FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SSE TO THE SW LATER
TONIGHT, BECOMING GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 08Z/28 AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH CLOUDS REMAINING MID TO HIGH LEVEL. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSBY AFTER 18Z/FRI, BUT CHANCES
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO HOLD OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. CLEARING FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
INTERMITTENT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 100 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND LOWER JAMES THROUGH MID-MORNING FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- SW WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SCAS POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER BAY, JAMES RIVER, AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST,
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASINGLY BREEZY SSW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER
JAMES, AND COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING, AS THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
THE GRADIENT SLACKENS A BIT. OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS TO 20-25 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE AND IN THE LOCAL TIDAL
RIVERS AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT EXPECT PREDOMINATE
CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB-SCA FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE SSW AND INCREASE, AGAIN OWING TO THE BUILDING RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND THE RESULTANT COMPRESSING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOCAL
WIND PROBABILITIES ARE NOW AOA 80-90% FOR WINDS OF 18-20 KT,
WITH GUSTS TO ~25 KT IN THE BAY AND JAMES RIVER, AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCA ARE LIKELY HERE. ADDITIONALLY, BUILDING SEAS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY SWELL, AND SCA ARE ALSO LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND. WILL ALLOW CURRENT HEADLINES TO EXPIRE THIS
MORNING BEFORE ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE ISSUED. WINDS DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA SAT LATE MORNING THROUGH SUN BEFORE S WINDS
BECOME ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA ON MON, DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MON EVENING/EARLY MON NIGHT,
WITH SMW/MWS FOR CROSSING SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WINDS LIKELY INCREASE AS THE VEER AROUND TO THE NNW
POST-FRONTAL MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA.
WAVES AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. WAVES BUILD TO
2-3 FT TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. SEAS OF 4-5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ELEVATED SEAS IS EXPECTED SUN INTO TUE AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT DUE
TO ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN LIKELY FRIDAY, THOUGH RHS WILL TEND TO
BE A 5-10% HIGHER THAN TODAY. STILL, WINDS WILL BE HIGHER (GUSTS
TO 20-25 MPH) AND GIVEN DRYING OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR NC COUNTIES
AWAY FROM THE N OBX. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY STILL YET BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF VA FOR
TOMORROW, AND WILL BE RE-EVALUATED LATER TONIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ631-
632-634.
SYNOPSIS...ERI/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...ERI/SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...ERI/KMC
MARINE...MAM/SW
FIRE WEATHER...
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