015
FXUS61 KAKQ 281034
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
634 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WARM WEATHER
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIAN,
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT DRY NW FLOW ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
A TROUGH OFFSHORE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OFF THE NC COAST. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
N, TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S S. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE W TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FARTHER OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND ARRIVE LATER AND
LINGER INTO THE AFTN FROM THE NORTHERN NECK TO THE EASTERN
SHORE. THERE IS A VERY MINIMAL CHC OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
LIMITED BY A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER BELOW 750MB. BECOMING
BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/SE VA AND NE
NC WITH A SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20- 25 MPH. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 25-30% RESULTING IN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY SATURDAY.
- WARMTH CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE EAST
COAST. PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60F. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM, AND BREEZY
SATURDAY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S (COOLER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). A SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. NOT QUITE AS DRY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING
FROM 35-40% INLAND TO 40-50% TOWARD THE COAST. CONTINUED PARTLY
CLOUDY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60F. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE SUNDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER, PRECIP CHANCES
ARE LIMITED, WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY REMAINING DRY DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. STILL WARM, JUST NOT QUITE AS WARM AS SATURDAY
GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80F (AGAIN COOLER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). A BREEZY SW
WIND WILL CONTINUE, BUT NOT AS DRY AS 2M DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE MONDAY.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
STRENGTHENING 200MB JET WITH THE RRQ OF THAT JET SLIDING ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME.
OVERALL, POPS FOR SHOWERS ARE 20-40% SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHOWERS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. HOWEVER, THERE STILL SOME
QUESTION WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND HOW MUCH SURFACE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS GIVEN THAT CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS POTENTIALLY PRECEDE
THE BETTER FORCING. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARRIVING
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 635 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z/28 TAF
PERIOD TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES FARTHER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING, AND WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER BY THIS AFTN, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SBY, WHERE BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LINGER INTO THIS AFTN. A SW WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT BY THIS AFTN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SBY
WITH LESS GUSTINESS DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH A SSW WIND OF 10-15KT. A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ MAY
RESULT IN LLWS AT SBY TONIGHT, SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE
TAF WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE.
MAINLY VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING
LATER SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BETTER
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
MARINE
AS OF 100 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND LOWER JAMES THROUGH MID-MORNING FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- SW WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SCAS POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER BAY, JAMES RIVER, AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST,
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASINGLY BREEZY SSW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER
JAMES, AND COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING, AS THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
THE GRADIENT SLACKENS A BIT. OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS TO 20-25 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE AND IN THE LOCAL TIDAL
RIVERS AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT EXPECT PREDOMINATE
CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB-SCA FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE SSW AND INCREASE, AGAIN OWING TO THE BUILDING RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND THE RESULTANT COMPRESSING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOCAL
WIND PROBABILITIES ARE NOW AOA 80-90% FOR WINDS OF 18-20 KT,
WITH GUSTS TO ~25 KT IN THE BAY AND JAMES RIVER, AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCA ARE LIKELY HERE. ADDITIONALLY, BUILDING SEAS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY SWELL, AND SCA ARE ALSO LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND. WILL ALLOW CURRENT HEADLINES TO EXPIRE THIS
MORNING BEFORE ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE ISSUED. WINDS DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA SAT LATE MORNING THROUGH SUN BEFORE S WINDS
BECOME ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA ON MON, DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MON EVENING/EARLY MON NIGHT,
WITH SMW/MWS FOR CROSSING SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WINDS LIKELY INCREASE AS THE VEER AROUND TO THE NNW
POST-FRONTAL MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA.
WAVES AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. WAVES BUILD TO
2-3 FT TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. SEAS OF 4-5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ELEVATED SEAS IS EXPECTED SUN INTO TUE AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT DUE
TO ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO 25-30% ACROSS CENTRAL/SE VA AND NE NC. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH A SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH.
ADDITIONALLY, 10HR FUELS HAVE HAD A FEW DAYS OF DRYING.
THEREFORE, AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
FOR THESE LOCATIONS. FARTHER NE, MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
THEREFORE, THE WIND WILL BE LESS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. A BREEZY SW WIND WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ060-061-065>069-079>083-087>090-092-093-
095>098-513>516-523>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ631-
632-634-638.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SW
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ/ERI
MARINE...MAM/SW
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ
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