429
FXUS61 KAKQ 282028
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
428 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIAN, SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
- MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE W TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WARM FRONT IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, USHERING IN SW, WARM FLOW GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 MPH BEHIND IT. DRY LOWER LEVELS PRECLUDE AND RISK FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS ON THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY. TONIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST, KEEPING TEMPS MILD WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING. LOWS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 4 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY SATURDAY.
- WARMTH CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE MONDAY.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE EAST
COAST. PARTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM, AND BREEZY SATURDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (COOLER AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST). A SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
MPH IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE AS DRY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM 35-45% INLAND
TO 45-55% TOWARD THE COAST. CONTINUED PARTLY SUNNY MILD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
LIMITED, WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY REMAINING DRY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. STILL WARM, JUST NOT QUITE AS WARM AS SATURDAY GIVEN
MORE CLOUD COVER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80F (AGAIN COOLER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). A BREEZY SW WIND WILL
CONTINUE, BUT NOT AS DRY AS 2M DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STRENGTHENING 200MB JET WITH THE RRQ OF THAT JET SLIDING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
TIMEFRAME. OVERALL, POPS FOR SHOWERS ARE 20-40% SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. KINEMATIC FIELDS
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. HOWEVER, THERE STILL
SOME QUESTION WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND HOW MUCH SURFACE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS GIVEN THAT CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY PRECEDE THE BETTER FORCING. POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ARE HIGHEST FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA (60-80%), WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST LOWER DUE TO
THE FRONT NOT REACHING THE COAST UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL ALSO BE WARM MONDAY, WITH THE WARM SECTOR BRINGING HIGHS
NEAR 80 BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HELPS COOL THINGS DOWN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COASTAL REGION. DRIER AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SW
WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH A SSW WIND OF 10-15KT. AND
A EXPANSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK. THERE IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE
OF SEEING SUB-VFR CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
HINTED AT BY THE NAM. LACK OF OTHER MODEL SUPPORT HAS KEPT
CONFIDENCE LOW, BUT KEPT A SCT MVFR DECK FOR TAF SITES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. BY 15Z LOW CLOUD SHOULD MOVE AWAY
KEEPING US VFR AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ MAY RESULT IN LLWS FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS BUT
ECG TONIGHT, SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE TAF WITH THE 18Z
ISSUANCE.
MAINLY VFR AND SUNDAY, WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING SUNDAY
EVENING. THERE IS A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME AFTN/EVENING TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
MARINE
AS OF 420 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND LOWER JAMES NOW THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FROM 8PM TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR REMAINING AREAS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,
JAMES, YORK, AND RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS AS WINDS INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM 11PM TONIGHT TO 11AM
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 1030MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TO THE WEST, DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE
MIDWEST. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY
SSW WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WIND SPEEDS TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, JAMES, YORK, AND RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS TODAY.
OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE AND IN THE LOCAL TIDAL RIVERS AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE SSW AND INCREASE, AGAIN OWING TO THE BUILDING RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND THE RESULTANT COMPRESSING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOCAL
WIND PROBABILITIES ARE NOW AOA 80-90% FOR WINDS OF 18-20 KT,
WITH GUSTS TO ~25 KT IN THE BAY AND JAMES RIVER, AND SCA HAS
BEEN ISSUED AS A RESULT. ADDITIONALLY, BUILDING SEAS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY SWELL, AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. WINDS
DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR ALL REGIONS SAT EVENING THROUGH SUN
BEFORE S WINDS BECOME ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA ON MON, DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MON EVENING/EARLY MON NIGHT,
WITH SMW/MWS FOR CROSSING SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WINDS LIKELY INCREASE AS THE VEER AROUND TO THE NNW
POST-FRONTAL MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA.
WAVES AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED SEAS IS EXPECTED SUN INTO TUE AS SEAS
BUILD TO 4-6 FT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED
TO 25-30% ACROSS CENTRAL/SE VA AND NE NC. THIS HAS COMBINED
WITH A SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH.
ADDITIONALLY, 10HR FUELS HAVE HAD A FEW DAYS OF DRYING.
THEREFORE, AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS. A BREEZY SW WIND WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. DESPITE
THE MOISTENING TREND, RHS WILL STILL BE 30-40% WITH GUSTY SW WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. ANOTHER IFD ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THREAT OF FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-
061-065>069-079>083-087>090-092-093-095>098-513>516-
523>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ631-632-
634.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SW
NEAR TERM...AJZ/RJ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/RJ
LONG TERM...AJZ/RJ
AVIATION...AJZ/ERI/RJ
MARINE...MAM/SW/RJ
FIRE WEATHER...
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