192
FXUS61 KAKQ 291229
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
829 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WARM DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY IS EXPECT TODAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE, LOCATED OFFSHORE TO THE SE, WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING WARM AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER. WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB, THE
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VA PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE RH TO FALL INTO THE 30% - 40% RANGE. WITH DRY SFC
FUELS AND GUSTY WINDS, EXPECT AN ENHANCE RISK OF WILDFIRE START
UPS WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR QUICK SPREADING. SO WILL ISSUE
INCREASE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT,
WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO BUILD NORTH INTO
THE AREA AND ALSO ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE, MAINLY MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN
MILD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMTH CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE MONDAY.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
A WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADD MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TO THE
AREA. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE, THE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AND QPF WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10". THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN SATURDAY, BUT WITH IT
BEING DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUDS, IT COULD STILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
BACK TOWARD 80S SHOULD MORE SUN PREVAIL.
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES NE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US. SO HAVE INCREASE POPS INTO THE 30 - 40 PERCENT
RANGE. BUT WITH LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT, THE SHOWERS WILL STILL
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS AROUND 60 WILL
CONTINUE.
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
PUSH TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS BEING ABOUT 3 - 6 HOURS
FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING CAPE GETTING UP TO 1000 - 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND STRONG SW FLOW
ALOFT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
AGAIN THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF
THE STORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND BRING THE SHOWERS TO AN END.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
DRIER AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
WHETHER THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA OR STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 830 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR PREVAILS FOR THE 12Z/29 TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS BECOME GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF ~15 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BUT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 12,000 FT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR SUNDAY, WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME AFTN/EVENING TSTMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
MARINE
AS OF 150 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOWER JAMES THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE, GRADUALLY
DROPPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- ANOTHER, MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT INTO TUE, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 1030MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE
WEST, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY SSW
WINDS THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WERE SSW 10-15 KT, WITH GUSTS TO ~20-25 KT, HIGHEST IN THE
BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER AND OVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
SCA CONTINUES THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE FOR THE LOWER JAMES, WITH
WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCA CONTINUES
THROUGH LATE MORNING NORTH OF WINDMILL POINT, AND THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON FROM THERE SOUTH TO THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.
ADDITIONALLY, BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH
INCREASING EASTERLY SWELL, WITH SEAS ALREADY 3-4 FT NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND. SCA CONTINUES INTO LATE AFTERNOON FOR NOW, BUT
NEW WAVE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE
A BIT QUICKER THAN THAT, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 16-18Z/NOON-2P EDT.
WINDS ALSO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA GRADUALLY FROM SAT MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SUB-SCA WINDS LINGER SAT EVENING
THROUGH SUN BEFORE S WINDS BECOME ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN SUN NIGHT
INTO MON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA ON MON, DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MON EVENING/EARLY MON NIGHT,
WITH SMW/MWS FOR CROSSING SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WINDS LIKELY INCREASE AS THE VEER AROUND TO THE NNW
POST-FRONTAL MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE POST-FRONTAL CAA.
WAVES AND SEAS 3-4 FT, BUILD TO 3-5 FT, HIGHEST NORTH, THEN
QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WAVES 1-2 FT
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUILDING TO 2-3 FT (HIGHEST LOWER
BAY) WITH BUILDING EASTERLY SWELL LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED SEAS IS EXPECTED SUN INTO TUE AS SEAS
BUILD TO 4-6 FT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 150 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A BREEZY SW WIND WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
15-30MPH. DESPITE INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM A MOIST AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA, RHS WILL STILL BE ~30-35% DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND W OF I-95, N OF I-64, AND ON THE
MD EASTERN SHORE. AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR TOMORROW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>083-085-087>090-509>522.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ631-
632-634-650-652.
SYNOPSIS...ESS/SW
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...AJB/ESS
MARINE...MAM
FIRE WEATHER...
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