244
FXUS61 KAKQ 291811
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
211 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING INTO
MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WARM AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
- THE WARMTH CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY, BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER LATER IN THE DAY.
THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF THE SE
COAST, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND USHERING WARM/SOUTHERLY WINDS
INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE
ALREADY WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (70S TO
AROUND 80 EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). THERE ARE
VARYING LEVELS OF HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FURTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VA PIEDMONT AND
CENTRAL VA, RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO AROUND 30 TO 40%.
WITH THE DRY SURFACE FUELS AND GUSTY SW WINDS, AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING. VIRGINIA
RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED THAT OPEN BURNING IS PROHIBITED BEFORE 4 PM
EACH DAY THROUGH APRIL 30TH.
THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO BUILD NORTH
INTO THE AREA AND ALSO ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE, MAINLY MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN MILD
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FOR SUNDAY, A WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADD MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE, THE CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (BEST
CHANCES WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA). ANY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND QPF WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10". THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMTH CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE MONDAY.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
A WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADD MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TO THE
AREA. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE, THE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AND QPF WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10". THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN SATURDAY, BUT WITH IT
BEING DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUDS, IT COULD STILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
BACK TOWARD 80S SHOULD MORE SUN PREVAIL.
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES NE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US. SO HAVE INCREASE POPS INTO THE 30 - 40 PERCENT
RANGE. BUT WITH LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT, THE SHOWERS WILL STILL
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS AROUND 60 WILL
CONTINUE.
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
PUSH TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS BEING ABOUT 3 - 6 HOURS
FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING CAPE GETTING UP TO 1000 - 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND STRONG SW FLOW
ALOFT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
AGAIN THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF
THE STORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND BRING THE SHOWERS TO AN END.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
DRIER AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
WHETHER THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA OR STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR PREVAILS FOR THE 18Z/29 TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION, SOME SCT CU
(~4000 FT) DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FAR SE THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST ~15 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
12,000 FT. SOME ADDITIONAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO AROUND 10,000 FT IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING SUNDAY
EVENING. THERE IS A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
MARINE
AS OF 150 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOWER JAMES THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE, GRADUALLY
DROPPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- ANOTHER, MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT INTO TUE, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 1030MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE
WEST, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY SSW
WINDS THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WERE SSW 10-15 KT, WITH GUSTS TO ~20-25 KT, HIGHEST IN THE
BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER AND OVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
SCA CONTINUES THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE FOR THE LOWER JAMES, WITH
WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCA CONTINUES
THROUGH LATE MORNING NORTH OF WINDMILL POINT, AND THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON FROM THERE SOUTH TO THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.
ADDITIONALLY, BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH
INCREASING EASTERLY SWELL, WITH SEAS ALREADY 3-4 FT NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND. SCA CONTINUES INTO LATE AFTERNOON FOR NOW, BUT
NEW WAVE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE
A BIT QUICKER THAN THAT, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 16-18Z/NOON-2P EDT.
WINDS ALSO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA GRADUALLY FROM SAT MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SUB-SCA WINDS LINGER SAT EVENING
THROUGH SUN BEFORE S WINDS BECOME ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN SUN NIGHT
INTO MON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA ON MON, DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MON EVENING/EARLY MON NIGHT,
WITH SMW/MWS FOR CROSSING SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WINDS LIKELY INCREASE AS THE VEER AROUND TO THE NNW
POST-FRONTAL MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE POST-FRONTAL CAA.
WAVES AND SEAS 3-4 FT, BUILD TO 3-5 FT, HIGHEST NORTH, THEN
QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WAVES 1-2 FT
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUILDING TO 2-3 FT (HIGHEST LOWER
BAY) WITH BUILDING EASTERLY SWELL LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED SEAS IS EXPECTED SUN INTO TUE AS SEAS
BUILD TO 4-6 FT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 150 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A BREEZY SW WIND WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
15-30MPH. DESPITE INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM A MOIST AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA, RHS WILL STILL BE ~30-35% DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND W OF I-95, N OF I-64, AND ON THE
MD EASTERN SHORE. AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR TOMORROW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>024.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>083-085-087>090-509>522.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ631-
632-634-650-652.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/ESS
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...MAM
FIRE WEATHER...
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