242
FXUS61 KAKQ 291852
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
252 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING INTO
MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WARM AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
- THE WARMTH CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY, BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER LATER IN THE DAY.
THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF THE SE
COAST, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND USHERING WARM/SOUTHERLY WINDS
INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE
ALREADY WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (70S TO
AROUND 80 EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). THERE ARE
VARYING LEVELS OF HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FURTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VA PIEDMONT AND
CENTRAL VA, RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO AROUND 30 TO 40%.
WITH THE DRY SURFACE FUELS AND GUSTY SW WINDS, AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING. VIRGINIA
RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED THAT OPEN BURNING IS PROHIBITED BEFORE 4 PM
EACH DAY THROUGH APRIL 30TH.
THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO BUILD NORTH
INTO THE AREA AND ALSO ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE, MAINLY MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN MILD
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FOR SUNDAY, A WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADD MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE, THE CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (BEST
CHANCES WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA). ANY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND QPF WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10". THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE MONDAY.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AS
IT AMPLIFIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE CONTINUATION OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
DEW POINTS TO RECOVER EVEN FURTHER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH
DEW POINTS OF 60-65 DEGREES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 70S AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS BEING
DRAGGED ALONG BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND ELEVATED TEMPERATURES, A MORE HUMID DAY THAN
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. THE TIGHTENING OF THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC AND
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DECENT ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS FOR
SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
INCLUDING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG, STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, HIGH PW VALUES, AND MINIMAL INHIBITION. THE
NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF HOW UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE AND IS SUGGESTING CAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1000-1500
J/KG. WITH GOOD FORCING ALOFT AS A STRONG JET SETS UP ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND ALL OF THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS, SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN REDEVELOP IF SHOWERS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IMPACT DAYTIME HEATING. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS, BUT THE GENERAL TREND
HAS BEEN STORMS MOVING THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS,
COMING TO AN END IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. AS OF NOW,
SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF THE EAST COAST IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY TRENDS AND IRON
OUT THE DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES IN REGARDS TO THE
SEVERE THREAT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC, AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE
EASTERN SHORE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
AREAS FURTHER INLAND. BY THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE TRANSITING
EASTWARD SE OF NOVA SCOTIA BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARDS BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT
THE SAME TIME, A STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO THE RIDGE AND WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE
ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN OUR AREA OF JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE
THIS FRONT STALLS, IT COULD LEAD TO A WETTER WEEKEND FOR THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AS OF RIGHT NOW, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT SET-UP, SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD. WITH THE COLD FRONT LINGERING TO
OUR NORTH, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S (LOW TO MID 70S FOR
THE EASTERN SHORE) AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S UNTIL THE FRONT STARTS TO SAG DOWN BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR PREVAILS FOR THE 18Z/29 TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION, SOME SCT CU
(~4000 FT) DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FAR SE THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST ~15 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
12,000 FT. SOME ADDITIONAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO AROUND 10,000 FT IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING SUNDAY
EVENING. THERE IS A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- ANOTHER, MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT INTO TUE, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS.
THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE SE COAST.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED FROM EARLIER, AND ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SSW ~15 KNOTS. SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET, AND WAVES IN THE BAY
ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS REMAINING POSSIBLE
(HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE SHORE). SCAS WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE A FEW HOURS EARLY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THE
WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING
WINDS BY LATER SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCAS
WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, RIVERS, AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE SSW WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
AND BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FEET (LOCALLY 6 FEET OUT 20 NM) LATER
SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG, WITH SOME
MODELS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING (BEST CHANCE OVER THE OCEAN).
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO SE CANADA ON MONDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
FEATURE AND AN EXPANSIVE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO FRESHENING WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WHILE WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SCA CRITERIA, SEAS IN THE OCEAN
WILL REACH 4-6 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
WITHIN THESE STORMS, WHICH WILL BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AS WARRANTED. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. A SOLID BLAST OF CAA TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BRING WINDS UP TO SCA CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY IN THE
BAY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE CHANCE
FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WINDS AND 5 FT SEAS IN THE OCEAN (MAINLY
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A BREEZY SW WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-30MPH. DESPITE INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM A MOIST
AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA, RHS ARE STILL RUNNING ~30-40%
FOR AREAS ALONG AND W OF I-95, N OF I-64, AND ON THE MD EASTERN
SHORE. AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>024.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>083-085-087>090-509>522.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ631-
632-634.
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJB/NB
FIRE WEATHER...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab VA Page The Nexlab NC Page The Nexlab MD Page Main Text Page