128
FXUS61 KAKQ 300011
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
811 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING INTO
MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 810 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- REMAINING BREEZY AND MILD OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.
- THE WARMTH CONTINUES SUNDAY, BUT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS 1032+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
BERMUDA THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST, A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN TN
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE HIGH REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WITH RESULTANT SSW FLOW
ALLOWING PERSISTENT WAA TO SLOWLY INCREASE DEWPOINT VALUES
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, REMAINING MAINLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING AHEAD OF WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TO
THE WEST. THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WAA COMBINE TO BRING A RATHER MILD
EARLY SPRING EVENING TO THE REGION, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 60S INLAND.
FOR SUNDAY, THE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAINTAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS
CONDITIONS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE, THE
CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING LATER
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (BEST CHANCES WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA). GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AT BEST AND QPF WILL BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 0.10". THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP GUSTS IN
CHECK A BIT MORE TOMORROW, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 810 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE MONDAY.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO LIFT NNE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION
EARLY MONDAY.
THE CONTINUATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO RECOVER EVEN FURTHER
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH DEW POINTS OF 60-65 DEGREES IN
THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AS THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS BEING DRAGGED ALONG BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW OVER SE ONTARIO APPROACHES THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND ELEVATED TEMPERATURES RESULTS IN A
MORE HUMID DAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE IS ON TAP FOR
MONDAY. THE TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT THE BROAD BERMUDA HIGH
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS ARE JUST NOW GETTING INTO THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, AND THEREFORE WE CAN EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL MODEL
JOSTLING AS WE APPROACH THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. THAT SAID,
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE FRONTAL TIMING LATER INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DECENT
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS FOR SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, INCLUDING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, HIGH PW
VALUES, AND MINIMAL INHIBITION. THE NAM IS NOT SURPRISINGLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF HOW UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE AND IS SUGGESTING CAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1000-1500
J/KG. WITH GOOD FORCING ALOFT AS A STRONG JET SETS UP ACROSS THE
MID- ATLANTIC AND ALL OF THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS, SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BE MAINTAINED...OR REDEVELOP
IF PRE- FRONTAL SHOWERS FIRE UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IMPACTING
DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THERE ARE ALSO SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS, BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN
SLOWER MODEL PROGRESSION, WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
MOVING THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS, COMING TO AN
END IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
AS OF NOW, SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF THE EAST COAST IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
ANY TRENDS AND IRON OUT THE DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST
CYCLES IN REGARDS TO THE SEVERE THREAT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC, AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE
EASTERN SHORE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
AREAS FURTHER INLAND. BY THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE TRANSITING
EASTWARD SE OF NOVA SCOTIA BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARDS BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT
THE SAME TIME, A STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO THE RIDGE AND WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE
ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN OUR AREA OF JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE
THIS FRONT STALLS, IT COULD LEAD TO A WETTER WEEKEND FOR THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AS OF RIGHT NOW, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT SET-UP, SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD. WITH THE COLD FRONT LINGERING TO
OUR NORTH, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S (LOW TO MID 70S FOR
THE EASTERN SHORE) AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S UNTIL THE FRONT STARTS TO SAG DOWN BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 00Z/30 TAF
PERIOD WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS
HAVE DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
~8-10 KT OVERNIGHT, WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18-20 KT
POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MORE FREQUENT SW
GUSTS THEN RESUME WITH DIURNAL MIXING LATE SUN MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS 10-15 KT GUSTING TO ~20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THERE IS A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LATE AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- ANOTHER, MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT INTO TUE, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS.
THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE SE COAST.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED FROM EARLIER, AND ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SSW ~15 KNOTS. SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET, AND WAVES IN THE BAY
ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS REMAINING POSSIBLE
(HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE SHORE). SCAS WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE A FEW HOURS EARLY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THE
WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING
WINDS BY LATER SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCAS
WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, RIVERS, AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE SSW WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
AND BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FEET (LOCALLY 6 FEET OUT 20 NM) LATER
SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG, WITH SOME
MODELS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING (BEST CHANCE OVER THE OCEAN).
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO SE CANADA ON MONDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
FEATURE AND AN EXPANSIVE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO FRESHENING WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WHILE WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SCA CRITERIA, SEAS IN THE OCEAN
WILL REACH 4-6 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
WITHIN THESE STORMS, WHICH WILL BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AS WARRANTED. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. A SOLID BLAST OF CAA TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BRING WINDS UP TO SCA CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY IN THE
BAY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE CHANCE
FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WINDS AND 5 FT SEAS IN THE OCEAN (MAINLY
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJB/MAM
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...AJB/NB
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