414
FXUS61 KAKQ 300741
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE WARMTH CONTINUES TODAY, BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE IN THE
DAY.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS 1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
BERMUDA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY, WITH RESULTANT
SSW FLOW RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD EARLY SPRING DAY WITH SLOWING
INCREASING DEW PTS. GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND LACK OF
APPRECIABLE FORCING TODAY, HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS AND WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLGHT CHANCE JUST OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEG, EXPECT MID 60S
TO LOW 70S FOR THE MD BEACHES.
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WITH LOWS MID 50S TO LOW
60S. WE SHOULD START TO SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE PRE-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SO WILL HAVE 20-30% POPS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE MONDAY.
- THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO LIFT NNE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION
EARLY MONDAY.
THE CONTINUATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO RECOVER EVEN FURTHER
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH DEW POINTS OF 60-65 DEGREES IN
THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AS THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS BEING DRAGGED ALONG BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW OVER SE ONTARIO APPROACHES THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND ELEVATED TEMPERATURES RESULTS IN A
MORE HUMID DAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE IS ON TAP FOR
MONDAY. THE TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT THE BROAD BERMUDA HIGH
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
AND MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DECENT
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS FOR SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, INCLUDING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, HIGH PW
VALUES, AND MINIMAL INHIBITION. THE NAM IS NOT SURPRISINGLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF HOW UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
AND IS SUGGESTING CAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1000-1500
J/KG. WITH GOOD FORCING ALOFT AS A STRONG JET SETS UP ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND ALL OF THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS, SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BE MAINTAINED...OR REDEVELOP
IF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS FIRE UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IMPACTING
DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THERE ARE ALSO SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS, BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN
SLOWER MODEL PROGRESSION, WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
MOVING THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS, COMING TO AN
END IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
AS OF NOW, SPC HAS UPGRADED THE SEVERE THREAT ON MONDAY TO AN
ENHANCED RISK (3 OF 5) FOR MOST OF OUR CWA (SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE) AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC, AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE
EASTERN SHORE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
AREAS FURTHER INLAND. BY THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE TRANSITING
EASTWARD SE OF NOVA SCOTIA BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARDS BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT
THE SAME TIME, A STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO THE RIDGE AND WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE
ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN OUR AREA OF JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE
THIS FRONT STALLS, IT COULD LEAD TO A WETTER WEEKEND FOR THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AS OF RIGHT NOW, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT SET-UP, SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD. WITH THE COLD FRONT LINGERING TO
OUR NORTH, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S (LOW TO MID 70S FOR
THE EASTERN SHORE) AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S UNTIL THE FRONT STARTS TO SAG DOWN BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 06Z/30 TAF
PERIOD WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SSW 8-12 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MORE FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 KT RESUME WITH DIURNAL MIXING LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THERE IS A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LATE AFTN/EVENING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
MARINE
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT INTO TUE, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
LOCATED JUST N OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE.
BREEZY, BUT SUB-SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING
AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SW WINDS AT 10-15KT BRIEFLY BECOME SE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE S THIS EVENING. WINDS PICK
UP A BIT IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO 15-20KT WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS IN THE UPPER BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THIS, COMBINED
WITH SEAS N OF CAPE CHARLES BUILDING TO 5FT, WILL LEAD TO SCA
CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED SCAS FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS STARTING 23Z TODAY. ALSO RAISED SCAS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER BAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO SE CANADA ON MONDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SCAS FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
START AT NOON ON MONDAY. S WINDS WILL STAY AT 15-20KT THROUGH
THE MORNING, INCREASING TO 20-25KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER WITHIN THESE STORMS, WHICH
WILL BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS AS WARRANTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH. A SOLID BLAST OF CAA TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
BACK UP TO SCA CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY IN THE BAY THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
TO 10 TO 15 KT BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WINDS AND 5 FT SEAS IN THE OCEAN (MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE OCEAN) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JDM/NB
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AC/JDM
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