113
FXUS61 KAKQ 301927
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
327 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (3 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
US COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CHICAGO AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST. A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA OVER NORTHERN DELAWARE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO
AROUND 80 FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER MUCH COLDER
WATERS MAY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY ACROSS ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OF THE EASTERN SHORE. THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY FOG WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG/NEAR THE
WATER. IN ADDITION, A STRAY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE INCREASING
MOISTURE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING BACK
INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (50S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE EASTERN SHORE) UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY.
ALL ATTENTION TURNS TO MONDAY WHERE WE STILL HAVE AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY GENERALLY DRY, OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA (QPF ~0.10" OR
LESS). WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SE. BY LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND SEVERE
WEATHER. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL APPEARS TO BE
QUITE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH MLCAPE POTENTIALLY
CLIMBING TO AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, HIGH
PW VALUES, AND MINIMAL INHIBITION. STORMS LIKELY FIRE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY ~4-5 PM AND PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING, POTENTIALLY FORMING INTO A LINE AS INDICATED BY
NUMEROUS CAMS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TRY TO LIMIT STRONG
STORM DEVELOPMENT, AT LEAST INITIALLY, BUT THE OTHER PARAMETERS
SUPPORT THE ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60+
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT WE ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT (PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-
95) DUE TO FAVORABLE SRH AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. STORM PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT, EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE ~2 AM
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REMAINS MODERATE, WITH SOME OF THE
CAMS HOLDING ONTO THE CONVECTION A BIT LATER AND OTHER PUSHING IT
ALL OFFSHORE QUICKLY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A HYDRO THREAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT LOCALIZED QPF OF 1"+ WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE, BUT TO START
THE NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EARLY WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST
AREAS. AS THE HIGH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO SE CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST. WITH ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH EJECTS
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC, AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
IN THE EASTERN SHORE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN AREAS FURTHER INLAND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S (LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE). FLOW ALOFT
WILL START TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, A STOUT MID-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL BE TRANSITING EASTWARD SE OF NOVA SCOTIA ON THURSDAY
BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARDS BY AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THE ATTENDANT FRONT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO THE
BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE ANY
FURTHER THAN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION UNTIL THE WEEKEND. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK DOWN. DEPENDING
ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS, IT COULD LEAD TO A WETTER
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND FOR OUR AREA. AS OF RIGHT NOW, HAVE
MAINTAINED LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STARTS
TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT MAINLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, SO A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH THE COLD FRONT LINGERING TO OUR
NORTH, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 80S (LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE EASTERN SHORE) AND DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNTIL THE FRONT
STARTS TO SAG DOWN BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT LOCAL TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 18Z/30
TAF PERIOD. PLENTIFUL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. SCT CU HAS
ALSO DEVELOPED BENEATH THE HIGHER CLOUDS, WITH BASES ~4000 TO
4500 FEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN SSW 8-12 KT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW. CIGS LOWER DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT, WITH MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADING RIC AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 08Z AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES AROUND 11Z. ALSO CANNOT
RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AT ANY SITE TONIGHT, BUT THE
COVERAGE IS TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE VERY LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER MONDAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
LARGE HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION,
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TUE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
SW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH
SCA CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS (GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS AND
BUILDING SEAS).
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO SE CANADA ON MONDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SCAS FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
START AT NOON ON MONDAY. S WINDS WILL STAY AT 15-20KT THROUGH
THE MORNING, INCREASING TO 20-25KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER WITHIN THESE STORMS, WHICH
WILL BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS AS WARRANTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH. A SOLID BLAST OF CAA TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING WINDS WELL
INTO SCA CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY IN THE BAY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR WINDS AND 5 FT SEAS IN THE
OCEAN (MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES OF THE OCEAN) WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/JDM
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJB/NB
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