401
FXUS61 KAKQ 310558
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
158 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 1020 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (3 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS JUST
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO SW VA ARE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF HEATING. COULD WELL HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FIRE UP
LATE TONIGHT, AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS MAY ALSO LEAD
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY SEA FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE OCEAN
AND POTENTIALLY PUSHING INLAND ACROSS ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OF
THE EASTERN SHORE (MAINLY EAST OF US-13). OTHERWISE, MILD ONCE
AGAIN WITH LOWS REMAINING STABLE OR FALLING SLOWLY BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (50S ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE) UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKY.
ALL ATTENTION TURNS TO MONDAY WHERE WE STILL HAVE AN ENHANCED
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY GENERALLY DRY, OUTSIDE
OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (QPF ~0.10" OR LESS). WITH A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE, WITH LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SE. BY LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND SEVERE WEATHER. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
WITH MLCAPE POTENTIALLY CLIMBING TO AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG, STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, HIGH PW VALUES, AND MINIMAL INHIBITION.
STORMS LIKELY FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY ~3-5 PM AND PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING,
REACHING I-95 BETWEEN 6-10P AND EXITING OFFSHORE AFTER 2AM
TUESDAY. CAMS STILL FAVOR EVOLVING CONVECTION INTO A BROKEN
LINE AS STORMS CROSS OUR AREA MONDAY EVENING. WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY TRY TO LIMIT STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT, AT LEAST
INITIALLY, BUT THE OTHER PARAMETERS SUPPORT THE ENHANCED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60+ MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT WE ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT (PARTICULARLY EAST OF I- 95) DUE TO
FAVORABLE SRH AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. STORM PROGRESS EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING/NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A HYDRO THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT LOCALIZED QPF OF 1"+ WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE, BUT TO START
THE NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EARLY WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST
AREAS. AS THE HIGH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO SE CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST. WITH ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH EJECTS
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC, AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
IN THE EASTERN SHORE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN AREAS FURTHER INLAND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S (LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE). FLOW ALOFT
WILL START TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, A STOUT MID-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL BE TRANSITING EASTWARD SE OF NOVA SCOTIA ON THURSDAY
BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARDS BY AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THE ATTENDANT FRONT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO THE
BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE ANY
FURTHER THAN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION UNTIL THE WEEKEND. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK DOWN. DEPENDING
ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS, IT COULD LEAD TO A WETTER
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND FOR OUR AREA. AS OF RIGHT NOW, HAVE
MAINTAINED LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STARTS
TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT MAINLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, SO A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH THE COLD FRONT LINGERING TO OUR
NORTH, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 80S (LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE EASTERN SHORE) AND DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNTIL THE FRONT
STARTS TO SAG DOWN BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AS OF 06Z. MEANWHILE,
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER
PRIMARILY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME PATCHY
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. THE WIND IS SSW 8-12KT WITH GUSTS TO
15-20KT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM
08-14Z, AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT FROM 14-16Z. BECOMING BREEZY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN WITH A SW WIND OF 10-15KT
GUSTING TO 20-25KT. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS APPROACH FROM THE
W LATER THIS AFTN AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. ANY
TSTMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. IFR
VSBY IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING
TSTMS PUSH OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT WITH DRIER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARRIVING FROM THE NW.
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRIMARILY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHC OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.
MARINE
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TUE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
SW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH
SCA CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS (GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS AND
BUILDING SEAS).
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO SE CANADA ON MONDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SCAS FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
START AT NOON ON MONDAY. S WINDS WILL STAY AT 15-20KT THROUGH
THE MORNING, INCREASING TO 20-25KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER WITHIN THESE STORMS, WHICH
WILL BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS AS WARRANTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH. A SOLID BLAST OF CAA TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING WINDS WELL
INTO SCA CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY IN THE BAY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR WINDS AND 5 FT SEAS IN THE
OCEAN (MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES OF THE OCEAN) WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/JDM
NEAR TERM...AJB/MAM
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJB/NB
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