237
FXUS61 KAKQ 310755
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A RIDGE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE CO-LOCATED OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH 995MB LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND A COLD FRONT
TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD
LOCALLY WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S (MID/UPPER 50S IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST)
WITH A S WIND OF 8-12 MPH OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WARM LOCALLY TODAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S INLAND,
AND A SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THAT A CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY, AND THAT IS DOES NOT
BREAK UNTIL 4-5 PM ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THEREFORE, MUCH OF THE
DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY DESPITE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND PUSH E THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WIND PROFILE BECOMES MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING THE MAIN WINDOW OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, LCLS ARE INITIALLY RATHER HIGH. GIVEN
THIS, THE TORNADO THREAT IN THE SPC OUTLOOK HAS BEEN SCALED DOWN
TO 2-5%, AND THE OVERALL OUTLOOK HAS BEEN LOWERED A CATEGORY TO
'SLIGHT' INSTEAD OF 'ENHANCED'. THE PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. QPF THROUGH TONIGHT RANGES FROM 0.5- 0.75"
FROM THE PIEDMONT ACROSS CENTRAL VA TO THE MD EASTERN SHORE,
TAPERING DOWN TO 0.15-0.25" ACROSS COASTAL NE NC. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW LATER TONIGHT, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S N AND NW TO THE MID
50S SE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, WITH THE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUESDAY, SETTLES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. PLEASANT AND DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOWER/MID 60S
WELL INLAND. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S N TO THE LOWER/MID 40S S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, TO THE UPPER
60S/AROUND 70F WELL INLAND.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE DIMINISHING LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A
COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW AS A TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, THE 00Z/31 DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLES LARGELY KEEP THE FRONT N OF THE LOCAL AREA, WITH
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. 00Z/31 GEFS/EPS EACH DEPICT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID 80S INLAND THURSDAY
AND UPPER 80S INLAND FRIDAY. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY SETTLES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY, BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE N SUNDAY AS
A MORE POTENT SYSTEM TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
WEEKEND, ASIDE FROM LOCALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AS OF 06Z. MEANWHILE,
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER
PRIMARILY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME PATCHY
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. THE WIND IS SSW 8-12KT WITH GUSTS TO
15-20KT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM
08-14Z, AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT FROM 14-16Z. BECOMING BREEZY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN WITH A SW WIND OF 10-15KT
GUSTING TO 20-25KT. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS APPROACH FROM THE
W LATER THIS AFTN AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. ANY
TSTMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. IFR
VSBY IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING
TSTMS PUSH OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT WITH DRIER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARRIVING FROM THE NW.
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRIMARILY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHC OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.
MARINE
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- WINDS BECOME ELEVATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE
CANADA TODAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LOCAL WATERS.
WINDS WERE S 10-15 KT ACROSS THE S WATERS AND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE N WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS ALL THE
WATERS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT WITH A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO NW/N 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AS THE CAA
RAMPS UP. THIS STRONGER SURGE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 4 AM TUE. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME N AND DIMINISH TO
10-15 KT BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM
THE N. WIND PROBS WERE AROUND 100% FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE, WIND PROBS FOR 18 KT GUSTS INCREASE
QUICKLY TO 85-100% BY 15Z (11 AM) ACROSS THE RIVERS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS AND AROUND 17Z (1 PM) FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND
DUE TO MIXING INCREASING OVER LAND AND GUSTY WINDS BLOWING
ACROSS THE LAND-WATER INTERFACE. GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SHORT BREAK IN
SCA CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE WANING SURGE EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND THE CAA SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT,
HAVE EXTENDED CURRENT SCAS FOR THE CHES BAY THROUGH 4 PM TUE.
LIKEWISE, HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR THE RIVERS FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING THROUGH 1 PM TUE AND FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND S
COASTAL WATERS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 4 PM TUE. SCAS
FOR THE N COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM TUE.
A PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WED-THU WITH WINDS BECOMING E/SE 15-20
KT WED AFTERNOON, BECOMING S WED NIGHT. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SURGE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE 2-3 FT AND 3-5 FT RESPECTIVELY THIS
MORNING. WAVES AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT AND 4-6 FT RESPECTIVELY
BY EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-5 FT
SEAS IS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT WITH ELEVATED SEAS
AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...RMM
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