181
FXUS61 KAKQ 311921
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PART OF
TONIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS
QUITE LOW BUT NON-ZERO.
LATE AFTERNOON WX ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ENE
THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WON'T CROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AM. VERY WARM LOCALLY TODAY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH UPPER 50S-60F DEW POINTS WEST OF I-95
AND LOWER-MID 60S DEW POINTS NEAR THE COAST. WHILE THERE IS A
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE PREVENTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP, THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND UPPER HEIGHTS/TEMPS FALL.
THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE AREA, WITH ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE PIEDMONT BY AROUND 4-6 PM AS THE CAP
SLOWLY ERODES. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY
500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE, MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, BUT ALSO HIGH
LCLS AND LESS IN THE WAY OF 0-1KM SRH WITH SSW SFC WINDS AND A
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE FROM 850-500MB. THE CONVECTION WILL
INITIALLY POSE MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT BECOMES MORE
LINEAR WHILE TRACKING FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
(ARRIVING IN THE RIC METRO BETWEEN 7-830PM). WITH HIGHER DEW
PTS/ENOUGH INSTABILITY TOWARD THE COAST, CONVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN VA AND NE NC BY 10 PM OR SO.
WHILE THE INITIAL (PRE-FRONTAL) LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
OFFSHORE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING (ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST) UNTIL THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT OF BACKING IN THE SFC WINDS DURING
THE EVENING TOWARD THE COAST AND IN NE NC DESPITE THE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE FROM 850-500MB. COUPLED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY LOWER LCLS FARTHER EAST, FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR A BRIEF
QLCS TORNADO IS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER HERE DURING THE 7-11 PM TIME
WINDOW. SPC STILL HAS A 2% TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE AREA TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR DAMAGING WIND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. QPFS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE 0.5-1.0" FROM THE PIEDMONT
ACROSS CENTRAL VA TO THE MD EASTERN SHORE, TAPERING DOWN TO 0.15-
0.40" ACROSS COASTAL NE NC. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NW LATER TONIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER
40S N AND NW TO THE MID 50S SE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, WITH THE PATTERN
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE
AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUESDAY, SETTLES
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.
PLEASANT AND DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE
LOWER/MID 60S WELL INLAND. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S N TO THE LOWER/MID 40S S. WINDS
BECOME SSE BY WEDNESDAY AFTN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WITH
FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, TO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WELL INLAND. MUCH WARMER WX IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS. LOCALLY, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SSW AND INCREASES. IN FACT, WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUT DOESN'T MAKE MUCH PROGRESS ON THU. HIGHS
THU WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S INLAND, WITH MID 70S-80F OVER
MOST OF THE EASTERN SHORE AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 13-16C.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK.
- LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVES
LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY AS
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE COLD FRONT MAKES A LITTLE BIT OF PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD, BUT LIKELY STALLS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE ON FRIDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR TSTMS DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF THE VA-NC
BORDER. HOWEVER, THIS IS UNCERTAIN AS THE MODELS HAVE VARYING
SOLUTIONS. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY SETTLES INTO THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY, BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE N SUNDAY AS A MORE POTENT
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE WEEKEND, ASIDE FROM LOCALLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN SHORE SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
POTENTIALLY ARRIVES SUN/SUN NIGHT.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS LIKELY STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY CROSSES THE AREA WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. HIGHS LIKELY DROP BACK DOWN TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BY NEXT MONDAY WITH SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS INVOF ECG WITH SHOWERS. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 22-00Z.
THEN, A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE
CONVECTION LIKELY ARRIVES AT RIC BETWEEN 23-01Z WITH AN ARRIVAL
TIME CLOSER TO 01-03Z NEAR THE COAST. BREEZY SSW WINDS (W/ GUSTS
TO 25 KT) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION. ANY TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. IFR/LIFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN HEAVY
RAIN. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BY 04-05Z AND
LINGERING SHOWERS COME TO AN END FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA
(BETWEEN 06-09Z). MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST,
BUT DRIER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE FROM THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT.
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRIMARILY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHC OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.
MARINE
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NE OF THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO TREK NE
DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT BRINGING ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES. IN
ADDITION, SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCAS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, NOW SOUTHERLY AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS
ARE CURRENTLY 3 TO 5 FT WITH WAVES 1 TO 2 FT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND
WAVES LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER GUSTS OF THE STORMS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE NNW AND REMAIN
ELEVATED AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION USHERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT IN THE BAY AND 15 TO 20
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES WILL ALSO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT TO BE 2 TO 4 FT AND SEAS 3 TO 6
FT. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TO BE SUB-SCA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO BE OUT OF THE EAST
AND RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA ALONG WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. AT THIS TIME,
MARGINAL SCAS REMAIN POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COULD BRING SCA CONDITIONS, AS
WELL.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...KMC
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