191
FXUS61 KAKQ 010240
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1040 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 1040 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ENE ACROSS
THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT JUST WEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF THIS WRITING. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CROSSED THE AREA LARGELY AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING, AND EXPECT CONVECTION WEAKENS IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THE
DELMARVA AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MORE STABLE MARINE AIRMASS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THE INITIAL (PRE- FRONTAL) LINE OF
TSTMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS UNTIL THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. HAVE THEREFORE LINGERED A SLIGHT TO
LOW-END POP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG ALONG THE COAST, AGAIN OWING TO THE MORE STABLE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW LATER TONIGHT, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S N AND NW TO THE
MID 50S SE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, WITH THE PATTERN
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE
AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUESDAY, SETTLES
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.
PLEASANT AND DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE
LOWER/MID 60S WELL INLAND. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S N TO THE LOWER/MID 40S S. WINDS
BECOME SSE BY WEDNESDAY AFTN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WITH
FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, TO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WELL INLAND. MUCH WARMER WX IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS. LOCALLY, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SSW AND INCREASES. IN FACT, WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUT DOESN'T MAKE MUCH PROGRESS ON THU. HIGHS
THU WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S INLAND, WITH MID 70S-80F OVER
MOST OF THE EASTERN SHORE AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 13-16C.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK.
- LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVES
LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY AS
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE COLD FRONT MAKES A LITTLE BIT OF PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD, BUT LIKELY STALLS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE ON FRIDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR TSTMS DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF THE VA-NC
BORDER. HOWEVER, THIS IS UNCERTAIN AS THE MODELS HAVE VARYING
SOLUTIONS. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY SETTLES INTO THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY, BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE N SUNDAY AS A MORE POTENT
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE WEEKEND, ASIDE FROM LOCALLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN SHORE SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
POTENTIALLY ARRIVES SUN/SUN NIGHT.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS LIKELY STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY CROSSES THE AREA WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. HIGHS LIKELY DROP BACK DOWN TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BY NEXT MONDAY WITH SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 745 PM EDT MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 00Z
TAF PERIOD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC STILL SHOWING A NARROW LINE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST W OF LOCAL TERMINALS THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS
FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE CONVECTION LIKELY ARRIVES AT RIC THROUGH 01Z WITH AN
ARRIVAL TIME CLOSER TO 02-03Z NEAR THE COAST. BREEZY SSW WINDS
(W/ GUSTS TO 25 KT) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING OUTSIDE OF
THE CONVECTION. ANY TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. IFR/LIFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH 04Z OR SO. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT (04Z), WITH TAPERING OFF POST-FRONTAL BETWEEN
06-09Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 08-10Z NEAR THE COAST.
DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TOMORROW WITH NNE
WINDS GUSTING TO 18-22KT THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING TOMORROW EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRIMARILY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHC OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.
MARINE
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NE OF THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO TREK NE
DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT BRINGING ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES. IN
ADDITION, SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCAS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, NOW SOUTHERLY AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS
ARE CURRENTLY 3 TO 5 FT WITH WAVES 1 TO 2 FT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND
WAVES LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER GUSTS OF THE STORMS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE NNW AND REMAIN
ELEVATED AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION USHERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT IN THE BAY AND 15 TO 20
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES WILL ALSO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT TO BE 2 TO 4 FT AND SEAS 3 TO 6
FT. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TO BE SUB-SCA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO BE OUT OF THE EAST
AND RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA ALONG WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. AT THIS TIME,
MARGINAL SCAS REMAIN POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COULD BRING SCA CONDITIONS, AS
WELL.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...KMC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page