557
FXUS61 KAKQ 011248
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
848 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 845 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A COLD
FRONT IS DROPPING NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WIND SHIFT TO NNW WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
AS OF 9AM. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF VA/MD, TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S OVER SE VA AND NE NC.
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING, AND THEN
DAMPENS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL.
1026MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NNW TODAY AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AND RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, TO THE LOWER TO MID
60S INLAND W AND SW OF THE CHES. BAY UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. A
N WIND OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20- 25 MPH (STRONGEST TOWARD
THE COAST) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO ~1036MB TONIGHT AS IT
BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QB. CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH A
CALM TO VERY LIGHT EASTERLY WIND. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, WITH SOME MID 30S IN FAVORED COOL SPOT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 350 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAKENS
AS IT SETTLES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F ALONG
THE COAST, TO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F FARTHER INLAND UNDER
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
WITH EVEN SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT. NOTICEABLY
WARMER THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR
THE EASTERN SHORE AND THE LOWER/MID 80S FARTHER INLAND. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE LOCAL
AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 350 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK.
- LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVES
LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT NUDGES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL
AREA, AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z/01 MODELS IS FOR IT TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT , WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND
(COOLER NE WITH AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT). THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING,
MAINLY NORTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES
SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS N SATURDAY, BEFORE PUSHING
BACK TO THE N SUNDAY AS A MORE POTENT SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES INTO THE WEEKEND, ASIDE FROM LOCALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN SHORE SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
POTENTIALLY ARRIVES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS LIKELY STARTING EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY CROSSES THE AREA WHILE A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. HIGHS LIKELY
DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BY NEXT MONDAY WITH
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY,
BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 700 AM EDT TUESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING OFFSHORE AS OF 11Z. A COLD FRONT IS
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AND PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH ECG. SOME
CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER SE VA AND NE NC, WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
~2.5KFT POSSIBLE THROUGH 13-14Z. THE WIND IS NNW 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS TO ~20KT. LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS SE VA/NE NC CLEARS
FROM WNW-ESE LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TODAY AND SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR WITH A
CLEAR SKY BY THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL BE N 10-15KT
WITH GUSTS ~20KT THROUGH MID-AFTN, AND THEN BECOME NNE 8-12KT
LATER THIS AFTN, AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT OUT OF THE E TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRIMARILY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHC OF SHOWERS
LATER IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NW. THIS COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, AND LIFTS BACK N SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
- WINDS BECOME ELEVATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS BECOME NW/N 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AS THE CAA RAMPS UP. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 34 KT THIS MORNING (WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS WERE 15-20%)
WHICH WILL BE HANDLED WITH SMWS IF THEY OCCUR. OTHERWISE, WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOME N AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT BY LATE TUE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE N. AS SUCH, SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE RIVERS, 4 PM
FOR THE CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND, AND 7 PM FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS (DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS). WILL NOTE THAT SCAS FOR
THE CURRITUCK SOUND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WED INTO THU WITH WINDS BECOMING E/SE
15-20 KT WED AFTERNOON, BECOMING S WED NIGHT. MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SURGE, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS IS POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE LOCAL WATERS.
WAVES AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT AND 4-6 FT RESPECTIVELY LATER
THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
4-5 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT ACROSS THE N
COASTAL WATERS WITH ELEVATED SEAS AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI
NEAR TERM...AJZ/HET
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...RMM
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