179
FXUS61 KAKQ 290522
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
122 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLEAR AND NOT AS COOL TONIGHT. ANOTHER WARMUP IS EXPECTED, WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 849 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MAINLY CLEAR AND NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
A CLEAR, COOL EVENING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED RIGHT ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT. ALOFT, A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.,
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A QUIET
NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. WHILE THIS IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL HELP PULL IN
A MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOWER LIMIT OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST COMMUNITIES CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY.
- VERY WARM ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-64. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREAT.
THE RIDGE ALOFT CRESTS OVER THE EAST COAST TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, THE SFC RIDGE
SLIDES INTO POSITION OFF THE SE COAST, ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TO VEER TO THE SSW AND INCREASE. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH ARE
LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WAA ALLOWS HIGHS
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S (UPPER 70S ON THE EASTERN
SHORE) TOMORROW. CAMS STILL SHOW SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS TUE AFTN/EVENING, CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND
LIKELY WEAKENING (AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE) AS IT APPROACHES
THE AREA EARLY WED AM, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO THE LOWER DEWPTS. HOWEVER, ANY
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM DISSIPATING TSTMS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE LOCAL AREA WED AFTN. WHILE A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N ON WED, IT WILL SLOW AND ULTIMATELY
STALL WED AFTN BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN WARMER ON
WED WITH CONTINUED BREEZY SW FLOW. WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED WITH DEWPTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S BY THE
AFTN/EVENING. THE HIGHER TD VALUES ALLOW FOR MODERATE SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY (1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE) TO DEVELOP BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH MID/UPPER HEIGHT FALLS DUE TO THE
RIDGE BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO OUR SE AND ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
FROM TUESDAY'S CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TSTMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT SPECIFICS
ATTM, FIRST LOOK AT CAMS FOR WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGHEST TSTM CHANCES LOOK TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64, WITH
MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR TSTMS FROM 3-10 PM WED WITH DIURNAL
WEAKENING EXPECTED IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAK/UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. SO WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE
WX ISN'T EXPECTED OWING TO THE WEAK SHEAR, A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LIKELY BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
- COOLER AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT.
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
QUEBEC FROM THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z/28 MODEL TRENDS FAVOR
LIFTING THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THU, KEEPING THE
BETTER FORCING OFF TO THE NORTH, BUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN
INTO THE EVENING. POPS WERE CAPPED AT 30% THU.
THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI, WITH THAT COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AM. THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE IT CROSSES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WE'LL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ARE EXPECTED INLAND ON BOTH
DAYS. DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO LOCALLY MID 60S, SO IT
ACTUALLY FEEL SOMEWHAT HUMID THU/FRI. THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT THEN
LOOKS TO BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY.
LREF/NBM ENSEMBLES SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35KT (0-6KM),
AND A DECENT CHANCE (30-50% PROBABILITY) OF MLCAPE OF 750-1000
J/KG ALSO PORTENDS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY EVENING. ONLY ISSUE TO BE
IRONED OUT IS TYPICAL TEMPORAL RESOLUTION ISSUES, WHICH WILL BE
MONITORED WITH TIME.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE FRONT HANGING UP ALONG THE COAST
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SE COAST SAT AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK IN THE 70S,
WITH LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z/29 TAF
PERIOD. S WINDS OF 5-10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SSW
AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT (W/ GUSTS OF 20-25 KT) TODAY.
CONVECTION DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR WEST (WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS)
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT WEAKENS TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE
TERMINALS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF HIGH CLOUDS/FEW AFTN
CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH BY
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. A STRONGER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE JAMES RIVER,
CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AGAIN POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF VIRGINIA BEACH. AN
EASTERLY SEA BREEZE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT, THE WIND DIRECTION BECOMES
S-SE AND INCREASES TO 10-15 KT, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO SUNRISE TUESDAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N/NW LATER TUESDAY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS A RESULT. 80-100% PROBABILITIES
REFLECT STRONG CONFIDENCE IN MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE JAMES RIVER,
CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SSW WINDS
15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT (HIGHEST ON THE COASTAL WATERS).
CONFIDENCE IN MEETING SCA CRITERIA IS LOWER IN THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE YORK AND RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS, BUT WILL
ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO REEVALUATE THE POTENTIAL IN THESE
ZONES. THE GRADIENT AGAIN RELAXES AS THE WEAKENING FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY, WITH LIGHT EASTERLY OR A
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION EXPECTED. THE FRONT PUSHES BACK N AS A
WARM FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS BACK
TO THE SW. MARGINAL SCAS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO CAUSE LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
SATURDAY.
WAVES IN THE BAY BUILD TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5 FT. WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 6 FT SEAS OUT 20 NM
ACROSS THE N, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ637-638.
SYNOPSIS...ERI/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/NB
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...SW
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