920
FXUS61 KAKQ 291953
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
353 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH A HIGHER
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW MOVING, OR
CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- WARM AND DRY THIS EVENING, REMAINING MILD OVERNIGHT WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE NC COAST, WITH STRONG (<1000MB) SFC LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NE ACROSS QUEBEC. ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS ALIGNED ALONG OR JUST TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE SKY IS MAINLY CLEAR, AND WITH LOW- LEVEL FLOW NOW FROM THE
SW, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE REGION, ALONG WITH A BREEZY SW FLOW, GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH.
EXPECT HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS TO RISE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES,
TO 80-85F FOR MOST OF THE AREA. CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-MS AND OH VALLEY, AND WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE EVENING, BUT SHOULD
WEAKEN UPON APPROACHING AREAS E OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOWER DEW PTS AND RESULTANT LACK OF INSTABILITY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE LATEST 12Z/29 GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH ~12Z WED MORNING.
MILDER TONIGHT WITH A SSW BREEZE, LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER- MID 60S IN MOST AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR A
SPRINKLE OF LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE NORTHERN NECK/MD EASTERN SHORE
EARLY WED MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED WARM ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-64. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREAT.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY N/NW PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER. FRIDAY HAS TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER WITH THE COLD FRONT
A LITTLE SLOWER TO APPROACH FROM THE NW.
THE RIDGE ALOFT BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH ON WED, THEN
STARTS TO EXPAND BACK TO THE N A BIT ON THU. MEANWHILE, THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS PART OF THE AREA (AT LEAST
THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK) DURING THE DAY ON WED.
VERY WARM WX IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST OF OUR VA/NC ZONES (W/ UPPER 70S-LOWER
80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE). THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE ON WED
IS TIMING AND ESPECIALLY PLACEMENT OF AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM DISSIPATING
TSTMS, AS THESE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER
THE LOCAL AREA WED AFTN. ALSO, THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT COULD BE
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WELL. WHILE THE FORECAST
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHC FOR TSTMS
WED AFTN/EVENING IS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-64. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA
(WHERE DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NNE). WITH DEW
PTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S BY THE AFTN/EVENING, MODERATE
SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY (~1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE) WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND TO THE S/SW OF THE BOUNDARY. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WX
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK DEEP- LAYER SHEAR (LESS THAN 30KT IN
AREAS WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS MORE FAVORABLE), A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE 45-50 MPH GUSTS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED TREE
DAMAGE. MAINLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS (MID 50S ON THE EASTERN
SHORE WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW). THE BACKDOOR FRONT QUICKLY RETREATS
NORTHWARD ON THU AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
FROM THE PLAINS TO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE RETREATING
FRONT AND STRONG LOW STILL WELL TO OUR NW, AND RISING UPPER
HEIGHTS, THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE OFF TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN INTO THE EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS N/NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. VERY WARM INLAND W/ HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S ON THU. 70S ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN SHORE
WITH THE FLOW REMAINING ONSHORE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT TRACKS NE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REACHING QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT, WITH POPS NOW A LITTLE LOWER FOR FRIDAY AFTN
(RANGING FROM 30-40% NW TO ONLY ~15% ACROSS THE SE). REMAINING
VERY WARM FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S (PERHAPS UPPER
80S FOR THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER/STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA.
- THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
BECOME CUTOFF.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA LATE ON
FRIDAY, BEFORE IT TRACKS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THAT SHORTWAVE. THE LATEST 12Z/29 ECMWF IS STILL
FORECASTING IT TO BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW BY SUNDAY AND MEANDER
OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE
GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
SHOW THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CMC IS SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF, DEPICTING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES INTO
SUNDAY, EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT NEXT WEEK.
HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT WITH VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE FROM SUN-TUE. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE ACROSS
THE NORTH FRI NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY
AFTN AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH MODEST (~30 KT) DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT
ALONG WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, AND THIS COULD
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE E/SE SAT AFTN. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHS DROP BACK INTO THE 70S WELL
INLAND, BUT WILL BE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SE.
THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDS ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SHORTWAVE. IN GENERAL, COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY REGARDLESS OF WHAT SOLUTION VERIFIES,
BUT THE CHC FOR RAIN REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF IT REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE GFS/GEFS SHOWS, DRY AND LESS HUMID WX
PREVAILS SUNDAY- TUESDAY. IF A CLOSED LOW DOES FORM PER THE
ECMWF, CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, NBM GUIDANCE STILL ONLY HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE FA FROM SUN- TUE
AM, AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THE CMC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z/29
TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS AVG 10-15 KT (W/ GUSTS OF 20-25 KT)
THROUGH THIS AFTN. CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE MID-MS AND
OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT
BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINALS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO FAR NE PORTIONS OF
THE FA AFTER 06Z, BUT THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT. DID MAINTAIN LLWS AT SBY FOR A ~6 HR PERIOD (FROM
03-09Z) TONIGHT AS A 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN SHORE. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, BUT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH BY LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH POTENTIAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE WED/WED
EVENING. A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE FRIDAY, AND
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHC NOW
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER, AND UPPER RIVERS THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A WEAK FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
SUB-SCA ONSHORE FLOW.
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EARLY SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS 1026MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS SLIPPED OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, ALLOWING LOCAL
WINDS TO BECOME SW ~15 KT WITH GUSTS ~20 KT AS OF 3PM EDT. WAVES
ARE 1-2 FT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT IN THE CHES BAY/RIVERS/COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
CONSIDERABLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCAS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAY CONTINUE UNTIL 10AM
WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THESE HEADLINES A
BIT EARLY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WINDS BECOME N THEN NE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KT THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS
TOMORROW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH E OR ESE WINDS 5-10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK
TO THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY WITH SE WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 10-15 KT
BY LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WINDS INCREASE TO SW 15-20 KT
EARLY FRIDAY WITH SCA HEADLINES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHES BAY
AND LOWER JAMES RIVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY FALL OFF A BIT DURING THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, BECOMING 1-2
FT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT FROM THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY NORTHWARD TONIGHT, DECREASING BACK TO 2-3
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ656.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...RHR
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