212
FXUS61 KAKQ 300517
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
117 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH A HIGHER
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW MOVING, OR
CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 800 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- WARM AND DRY THIS EVENING, REMAINING MILD OVERNIGHT WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS EVENING, CONVECTION IS ONGOING NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA NEAR/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA DUE TO THERE BEING MUCH
LESS INSTABILITY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WILL STILL NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY LEFT OVER RAIN SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR FAR N/NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MILDER
TONIGHT WITH A SSW BREEZE, LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER- MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED WARM ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-64. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREAT.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY N/NW PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER. FRIDAY HAS TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER WITH THE COLD FRONT
A LITTLE SLOWER TO APPROACH FROM THE NW.
THE RIDGE ALOFT BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH ON WED, THEN
STARTS TO EXPAND BACK TO THE N A BIT ON THU. MEANWHILE, THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS PART OF THE AREA (AT LEAST
THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK) DURING THE DAY ON WED.
VERY WARM WX IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST OF OUR VA/NC ZONES (W/ UPPER 70S-LOWER
80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE). THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE ON WED
IS TIMING AND ESPECIALLY PLACEMENT OF AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM DISSIPATING
TSTMS, AS THESE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER
THE LOCAL AREA WED AFTN. ALSO, THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT COULD BE
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WELL. WHILE THE FORECAST
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHC FOR TSTMS
WED AFTN/EVENING IS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-64. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA
(WHERE DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NNE). WITH DEW
PTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S BY THE AFTN/EVENING, MODERATE
SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY (~1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE) WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND TO THE S/SW OF THE BOUNDARY. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WX
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK DEEP- LAYER SHEAR (LESS THAN 30KT IN
AREAS WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS MORE FAVORABLE), A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE 45-50 MPH GUSTS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED TREE
DAMAGE. MAINLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS (MID 50S ON THE EASTERN
SHORE WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW). THE BACKDOOR FRONT QUICKLY RETREATS
NORTHWARD ON THU AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
FROM THE PLAINS TO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE RETREATING
FRONT AND STRONG LOW STILL WELL TO OUR NW, AND RISING UPPER
HEIGHTS, THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE OFF TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN INTO THE EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS N/NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. VERY WARM INLAND W/ HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S ON THU. 70S ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN SHORE
WITH THE FLOW REMAINING ONSHORE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT TRACKS NE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REACHING QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT, WITH POPS NOW A LITTLE LOWER FOR FRIDAY AFTN
(RANGING FROM 30-40% NW TO ONLY ~15% ACROSS THE SE). REMAINING
VERY WARM FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S (PERHAPS UPPER
80S FOR THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER/STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA.
- THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
BECOME CUTOFF.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA LATE ON
FRIDAY, BEFORE IT TRACKS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THAT SHORTWAVE. THE LATEST 12Z/29 ECMWF IS STILL
FORECASTING IT TO BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW BY SUNDAY AND MEANDER
OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE
GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
SHOW THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CMC IS SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF, DEPICTING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES INTO
SUNDAY, EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT NEXT WEEK.
HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT WITH VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE FROM SUN-TUE. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE ACROSS
THE NORTH FRI NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY
AFTN AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH MODEST (~30 KT) DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT
ALONG WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, AND THIS COULD
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE E/SE SAT AFTN. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHS DROP BACK INTO THE 70S WELL
INLAND, BUT WILL BE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SE.
THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDS ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SHORTWAVE. IN GENERAL, COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY REGARDLESS OF WHAT SOLUTION VERIFIES,
BUT THE CHC FOR RAIN REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF IT REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE GFS/GEFS SHOWS, DRY AND LESS HUMID WX
PREVAILS SUNDAY- TUESDAY. IF A CLOSED LOW DOES FORM PER THE
ECMWF, CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, NBM GUIDANCE STILL ONLY HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE FA FROM SUN- TUE
AM, AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THE CMC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 115 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z/30
TAF PERIOD. HAVE LLWS THROUGH 10-11Z AT RIC/SBY AS A 40-50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ DEVELOPS OVER PART OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FROM DISSIPATING CONVECTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEN, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 19-00Z
AT RIC, 21-01Z AT PHF/ORF, AND 23-03Z AT ECG. TSTMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT SBY. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS AT
RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTM. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 04-05Z THU. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AT
RIC/PHF/ORF JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK: LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SE VA
THU AM, WITH VFR RETURNING THE REST OF THE DAY. ISOLATED TSTMS
LIKELY REMAIN NW OF THE TERMINALS ON THU. A STRONGER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION LATE FRIDAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE NOW APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED-
SCATTERED COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER, AND UPPER RIVERS THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A WEAK FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
SUB-SCA ONSHORE FLOW.
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EARLY SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS 1026MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS SLIPPED OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, ALLOWING LOCAL
WINDS TO BECOME SW ~15 KT WITH GUSTS ~20 KT AS OF 3PM EDT. WAVES
ARE 1-2 FT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT IN THE CHES BAY/RIVERS/COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
CONSIDERABLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCAS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAY CONTINUE UNTIL 10AM
WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THESE HEADLINES A
BIT EARLY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WINDS BECOME N THEN NE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KT THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS
TOMORROW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH E OR ESE WINDS 5-10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK
TO THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY WITH SE WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 10-15 KT
BY LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WINDS INCREASE TO SW 15-20 KT
EARLY FRIDAY WITH SCA HEADLINES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHES BAY
AND LOWER JAMES RIVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY FALL OFF A BIT DURING THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, BECOMING 1-2
FT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT FROM THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY NORTHWARD TONIGHT, DECREASING BACK TO 2-3
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
631-635>638-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ656.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RHR
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