494
FXUS61 KAKQ 300701
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH A HIGHER
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW MOVING, OR
CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED WARM TODAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST VA.
EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED ALONG THE SE
CONUS COAST, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS
EXPECTED, CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES (ALTHOUGH A FEW VERY BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NECK/EASTERN SHORE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS). IT IS
QUITE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S-70F AT THIS HOUR WITH A SW WIND
OF 10-15 MPH. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CROSS
PART OF THE AREA (MAINLY THE EASTERN SHORE) TODAY. VERY WARM WX IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S IN
MOST OF OUR VA/NC ZONES (W/ UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ON THE EASTERN
SHORE). HOWEVER, THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
BACKDOOR FRONT AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNING'S WEAKENING
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCAL POINTS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF CONVECTION. THE FIRST STORMS OF
THE DAY LIKELY FORM NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF A FARMVILLE-RICHMOND-
WILLIAMSBURG LINE AROUND 2-4 PM BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING
THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AFTER 9-10 PM AS THEY PUSH INTO NE NC. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS IS 2-6 PM ACROSS CENTRAL VA (INCLUDING
RIC), 5-10 PM IN SE VA, AND 7-11 PM IN NE NC. WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S AND LOWER-MID 60S DEW PTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MODERATE
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG) WILL BE PRESENT. WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK, A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE 45 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STRONG SFC
HEATING AND RESULTANT DOWNBURST/COLD POOL POTENTIAL. GUSTS IN THIS
RANGE COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED TREE/POWER LINE DAMAGE. MAINLY DRY
WX IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S IN
MOST AREAS (MID 50S ON THE EASTERN SHORE WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW).
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY N/NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH CONTINUED WARM WEATHER, AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL TO OUR NW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
THE RIDGE ALOFT TO EXPAND BACK TO THE N A BIT ON THU BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SUPPRESSED ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE BACKDOOR FRONT QUICKLY
RETREATS NORTHWARD ON THU AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS TO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE RETREATING
FRONT AND STRONG LOW STILL WELL TO OUR NW, AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS,
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN INTO
THE EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS N/NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. SEVERE WX IS NOT
EXPECTED ON THU, AND DOUBT THAT WE'LL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION WITH THE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND NOT MUCH FORCING FOR
ASCENT. VERY WARM INLAND W/ HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON THU. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY NEAR THE COAST WITH THE FLOW
REMAINING ONSHORE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN PLACES LIKE OCEAN CITY (WHERE
TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S) AND THE WESTERN PART OF THE MD
EASTERN SHORE (WITH TEMPS NEAR 80F).
THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT TRACKS NE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REACHING QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
REMAINS WELL TO OUR W THROUGH FRI NIGHT, ONLY REACHING IL/IN. THE
00Z/30 MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT, WITH MOST
OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS OUR
AREA. REMAINING VERY WARM FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
(PERHAPS UPPER 80S FOR THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER/STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA.
- THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
BECOME CUT OFF.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS
WEEKEND, THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SHORTWAVE,
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z/30 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD A CUTOFF LOW FORMING TO OUR WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS/GEFS REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE AND FORECAST THE SHORTWAVE
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AM BEGINNING
TO LEAN TOWARD THE CUTOFF LOW SOLUTION GIVEN ENSEMBLE TRENDS
FROM THE CMCE AND EPS.
HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT AND STILL HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE FROM SUN-TUE (BUT SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE CUTOFF LOW SOLUTION)
AS THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS STILL VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE EPS/CMCE (AND
IT ISN'T JUST ONE DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE GFS THAT IS AN OUTLIER).
SHOWERS/TSTMS EVENTUALLY BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY
AFTN-SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES INITIALLY ARE IN THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BUT MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BY SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AM. HIGHS STILL IN THE LOWER-MID 80S NEAR THE
COAST ON SAT, WITH UPPER 70S FARTHER INLAND. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS WELL (AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE
HIGHER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE). THE MAIN THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDS ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SHORTWAVE. IN GENERAL, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY REGARDLESS OF WHAT SOLUTION VERIFIES, BUT THE CHC FOR RAIN
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF IT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE
GFS/GEFS SHOWS, DRY AND LESS HUMID WX PREVAILS SUNDAY- TUESDAY. IF A
CLOSED LOW DOES FORM PER THE ECMWF/CMC, CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NBM GUIDANCE NOW HAS CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM SUNDAY-TUESDAY OWING TO THE TREND
TOWARD A CUTOFF LOW. HARD TO PINPOINT SPECIFICS ATTM BUT WE COULD
SEE A WIDESPREAD 0.50"+ OF RAIN FROM SUN-TUE NIGHT IF THE CUTOFF LOW
SOLUTION VERIFIES.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 115 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z/30
TAF PERIOD. HAVE LLWS THROUGH 10-11Z AT RIC/SBY AS A 40-50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ DEVELOPS OVER PART OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FROM DISSIPATING CONVECTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEN, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 19-00Z
AT RIC, 21-01Z AT PHF/ORF, AND 23-03Z AT ECG. TSTMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT SBY. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS AT
RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTM. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 04-05Z THU. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AT
RIC/PHF/ORF JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK: LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SE VA
THU AM, WITH VFR RETURNING THE REST OF THE DAY. ISOLATED TSTMS
LIKELY REMAIN NW OF THE TERMINALS ON THU. A STRONGER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION LATE FRIDAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE NOW APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED-
SCATTERED COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER, AND UPPER
RIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
- A WEAK FRONT MEANDERS OVER/NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AGAIN POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WERE SW 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AS SUCH,
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CHES BAY, COASTAL WATERS N OF THE
VA/NC BORDER, AND UPPER RIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT BY 10
AM. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE (5-10 KT) THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES S ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
(MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON) INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
(BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY, RIVERS, AND S COASTAL
WATERS). WINDS REMAIN LIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK N AS A WARM FRONT.
AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
SE CANADA THU INTO FRI, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE LOCAL WATERS BEFORE SLOWING/STALLING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT SAT, HELPING TO PUSH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SAT NIGHT. ALOFT, A LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS FRI INTO SAT BEFORE LIKELY BECOMING A
CUTOFF LOW ALONG OR W OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREND TOWARDS THE CUTOFF
LOW SOLUTIONS, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND ONSHORE (POTENTIALLY ELEVATED) FLOW NEXT WEEK. WHILE
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BEYOND LATE THIS WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE-HIGH IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED SW FLOW (15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT) DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO SAT,
BEFORE WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT. WIND
PROBS FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS THE CHES BAY LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WERE 40-70%. AS SUCH, SCAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SURGE.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE 2-3 FT AND 3-5 FT RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS
MORNING (3-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE S COASTAL WATERS AND LOCALLY 5-6 FT
ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS). WAVES AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AND 2-
3 FT RESPECTIVELY LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED
SEAS ARRIVES FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
631-635>638-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ656.
SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM
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