574
FXUS61 KAKQ 301955
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A HIGHER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING, OR CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING,
AND ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-64. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF COAST REGION, AND INTO FLORIDA, WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OUT NEAR BERMUDA. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH
SOUTH FROM NORTHERN VA, AND HAS BECOME RATHER DIFFUSE WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
INTO THIS EVENING, SHIFTING NNW WINDS TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS, WHILE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR OF VA AND NE NC THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S W OF THE BAY, WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 1000-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC, TAPERED TO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS WITH <500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND
PTS N AND E OF THERE. MEANWHILE, THE MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR IS
OFFSET TO THE NORTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, SUCH THAT
THERE IS MINIMAL SHEAR (AND VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES)
WHERE THE INSTABILITY RESIDES. AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING, THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT, BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN. WHILE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM (WITH GUSTY WINDS) CAN'T BE RULED OUT
INTO THIS EVENING, THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED GIVEN THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST IN SE VA/NE NC WILL TEND TO DECREASE THE INSTABILITY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS, SO THE BEST CHC FOR ANY STRONGER CONVECTION
WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE THE
STRONG SFC HEATING AND RESULTANT DOWNBURST/COLD POOL POTENTIAL
PERSISTS. MAINLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS (MID 50S ON THE EASTERN
SHORE WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW).
THE RIDGE ALOFT TO EXPANDS BACK TO THE N A BIT ON THU BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SUPPRESSED ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE NE ON THU AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEEPEN WHILE TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. WITH THE RETREATING FRONT AND STRONG LOW STILL WELL
TO OUR NW, AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS, THE BEST FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. HOWEVER,THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HIGHLIGHTING SOME ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT THU AFTN, FARTHER
EAST THAN WHAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN DEPICTED. A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY, AND COULD FURTHER
ENHANCE THE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VA
TO THE BAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE REGION WITH 30-40% POPS EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS THU AFTN INTO THE EVENING. SEVERE WX IS NOT
EXPECTED ON THU, WITH SHEAR AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WEAK, BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY
WARM INLAND AND TO THE S OF I-64 W/ HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON
THU. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY NEAR THE COAST WITH THE
FLOW REMAINING ONSHORE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE MAY VERY WELL
BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN PLACES LIKE OCEAN CITY
(WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S) AND THE WESTERN
PART OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE (WITH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S).
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY N/NW 1/2
OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH VERY WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING.
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION, POTENTIALLY STALLING ALONG THE COAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REACHING QUEBEC BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SEASONALLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT REMAINS WELL TO OUR W THROUGH FRI NIGHT,
ONLY REACHING IL/IN. THE 12Z/30 MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT, WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS OUR AREA (HIGHEST
POPS NW). REMAINING VERY WARM FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S, ALONG WITH A BIT MORE SHEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
LOCAL AREA IS CURRENTLY ONLY IN GENERAL THUNDER, BUT THIS COULD
BE INCREASED TO A MARGINAL THREAT WITH LATER UPDATES.
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS FOR SAT
WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS ALL AREAS
SATURDAY AFTN-SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES INITIALLY ARE
IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BUT MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AM. HIGHS STILL IN THE LOWER-MID
80S NEAR THE COAST ON SAT, WITH UPPER 70S FARTHER INLAND. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS WELL (AND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE).
THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
BECOME CUT OFF.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS
WEEKEND, THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SHORTWAVE,
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z/30 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD A CUTOFF LOW FORMING TO OUR WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS/GEFS REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE AND FORECAST THE SHORTWAVE
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AM BEGINNING
TO LEAN TOWARD THE CUTOFF LOW SOLUTION GIVEN ENSEMBLE TRENDS
FROM THE CMCE AND EPS.
THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SHORTWAVE. IN GENERAL, COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY REGARDLESS OF WHAT SOLUTION VERIFIES,
BUT THE CHC FOR RAIN REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF IT REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE GFS/GEFS SHOWS, DRY AND LESS HUMID WX
PREVAILS SUNDAY- TUESDAY. IF A CLOSED LOW DOES FORM PER THE
ECMWF/CMC, CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NBM GUIDANCE NOW HAS CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM SUNDAY-TUESDAY OWING TO THE TREND TOWARD A CUTOFF LOW.
HARD TO PINPOINT SPECIFICS ATTM BUT WE COULD SEE A WIDESPREAD
0.50"+ OF RAIN FROM SUN-TUE NIGHT IF THE CUTOFF LOW SOLUTION
VERIFIES.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
12Z/30 TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM DISSIPATING CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
THEN, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING FOR CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 19-00Z AT RIC, 21-01Z AT
PHF/ORF, AND 23-03Z AT ECG. TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT SBY. HAVE
MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS AT RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTM. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 04-05Z THU.
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AT RIC/PHF/ORF JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
OUTLOOK: LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SE VA
THU AM, WITH VFR RETURNING THE REST OF THE DAY. ISOLATED TSTMS
LIKELY REMAIN NW OF THE TERMINALS ON THU. A STRONGER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION LATE FRIDAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE NOW APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED-
SCATTERED COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WEAK FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SUB-
SCA ONSHORE FLOW.
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
- A PERIOD OF ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW AND SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE SE CONUS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
5-10 KT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES ARE AROUND 1 FOOT
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MANAGE TO FORM INLAND AND MOVE OFFSHORE.
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT POSED BY CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. SE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KT LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME SW 15-20 KT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS AND
LOCAL WIND PROBS NOW ONLY SHOW A 30-50% CHANCE OF 18+ KT WINDS
IN THE CHES BAY. A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED TOWARD A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING WINDS WITH
SEAS TO BUILDING TO 5-8 FT (HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE) FROM EARLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...RHR
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