600
FXUS61 KAKQ 010035
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
835 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A HIGHER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING, OR CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 830 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING OUT TONIGHT AND REMAINING MILD.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY GENERALLY FAILED TO MATERIALIZE THIS EVENING OUTSIDE
OF A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA
INTO NORTHEAST NC (MAINLY DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
WEAK SHEAR, AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY). WILL LOW CHANCES ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN VA INTO NORTHEAST NC THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE,
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S (50S
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SHORE).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE RIDGE ALOFT TO EXPANDS BACK TO THE N A BIT ON THU BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SUPPRESSED ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE NE ON THU AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEEPEN WHILE TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. WITH THE RETREATING FRONT AND STRONG LOW STILL WELL
TO OUR NW, AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS, THE BEST FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. HOWEVER,THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HIGHLIGHTING SOME ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT THU AFTN, FARTHER
EAST THAN WHAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN DEPICTED. A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY, AND COULD FURTHER
ENHANCE THE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VA
TO THE BAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE REGION WITH 30-40% POPS EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS THU AFTN INTO THE EVENING. SEVERE WX IS NOT
EXPECTED ON THU, WITH SHEAR AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WEAK, BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY
WARM INLAND AND TO THE S OF I-64 W/ HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON
THU. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY NEAR THE COAST WITH THE
FLOW REMAINING ONSHORE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE MAY VERY WELL
BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN PLACES LIKE OCEAN CITY
(WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S) AND THE WESTERN
PART OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE (WITH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S).
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY N/NW 1/2
OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH VERY WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING.
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION, POTENTIALLY STALLING ALONG THE COAST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REACHING QUEBEC BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SEASONALLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT REMAINS WELL TO OUR W THROUGH FRI NIGHT,
ONLY REACHING IL/IN. THE 12Z/30 MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT, WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS OUR AREA (HIGHEST
POPS NW). REMAINING VERY WARM FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S, ALONG WITH A BIT MORE SHEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
LOCAL AREA IS CURRENTLY ONLY IN GENERAL THUNDER, BUT THIS COULD
BE INCREASED TO A MARGINAL THREAT WITH LATER UPDATES.
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS FOR SAT
WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS ALL AREAS
SATURDAY AFTN-SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES INITIALLY ARE
IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BUT MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AM. HIGHS STILL IN THE LOWER-MID
80S NEAR THE COAST ON SAT, WITH UPPER 70S FARTHER INLAND. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS WELL (AND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE).
THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY/MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND WETTER OVERALL WITH SOME SORT OF SLOW
MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME CUT OFF.
THE 12Z/30 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A
CUTOFF LOW FORMING TO OUR WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS REMAIN MORE PROGRESSIVE, BUT NOW DO SHOW
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW BY MONDAY (THOUGH OFFSET WELL TO
THE S OF THE CONSENSUS). HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST WETTER WITH
THIS PACKAGE, NOW SHOWING AT LEAST CHC POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
IN GENERAL, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY REGARDLESS OF WHAT
SOLUTION VERIFIES, BUT THE CHC FOR RAIN AND AMOUNTS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. NBM GUIDANCE NOW HAS CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM SUNDAY-TUESDAY OWING TO THE TREND TOWARD A
CUTOFF LOW. HARD TO PINPOINT SPECIFICS ATTM BUT WE COULD SEE A
WIDESPREAD 0.50"+ OF RAIN FROM SUN-TUE NIGHT IF THE CUTOFF LOW
SOLUTION VERIFIES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 830 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z/01 TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE AFTER ~09Z AT RIC AND PHF, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT RIC,
INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AT RIC.
OUTLOOK: A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE FRIDAY,
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE NOW APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED- SCATTERED COVERAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WEAK FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SUB-
SCA ONSHORE FLOW.
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
- A PERIOD OF ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW AND SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE SE CONUS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
5-10 KT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES ARE AROUND 1 FOOT
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MANAGE TO FORM INLAND AND MOVE OFFSHORE.
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT POSED BY CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. SE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KT LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME SW 15-20 KT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS AND
LOCAL WIND PROBS NOW ONLY SHOW A 30-50% CHANCE OF 18+ KT WINDS
IN THE CHES BAY. A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED TOWARD A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING WINDS WITH
SEAS TO BUILDING TO 5-8 FT (HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE) FROM EARLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...RHR
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