719
FXUS61 KAKQ 011027
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
627 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND, BUT LIKELY REMAINS TO OUR WEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SLOW MOVING, OR CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER CHANCES
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 255 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ON
THE STRONGER SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED FROM FLORIDA
TO JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS
TAKING SHAPE IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
THAT CROSSED PART OF THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS STALLED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER. IT IS MILD, DRY, AND A BIT HUMID WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S W/ LOWER-MID 60S DEW PTS. THE RIDGE
ALOFT EXPANDS BACK TO THE N A BIT TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE NE AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS WHILE TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. WITH THE RETREATING FRONT AND STRONG LOW STILL WELL TO
OUR NW, AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER HEIGHTS, THE BEST FORCING
FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. HOWEVER,
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE RETREATING
WARM FRONT LATER TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64
IN VIRGINIA.
WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
TSTMS (MAINLY BETWEEN 2-8 PM) FROM CENTRAL VA TO THE VA NORTHERN
NECK. TSTMS MAY REACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WITH CONVECTION NOT MATERIALIZING
YESTERDAY, MEAGER LARGE SCALE LIFT, AND VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS,
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION TODAY IS FAIRLY LOW.
NEVERTHELESS, HAVE MAINTAINED 30-40% POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL. SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, BUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. VERY WARM INLAND AND TO THE S OF I-64 W/ HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY ON THE EASTERN
SHORE WITH THE FLOW REMAINING ONSHORE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE
WILL VERY LIKELY BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
PLACES LIKE OCEAN CITY (WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
60S) AND THE WESTERN PART OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE (WITH TEMPS
NEAR 80F). THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT WITH
MILD/HUMID WX EXPECTED ALONG WITH SSW WINDS AREA-WIDE. LOWS ONLY
FALL INTO THE LOWER- MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 255 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY N/NW 1/2
OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH VERY WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING.
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT LIKELY REMAINS TO OUR WEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT TRACKS NE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REACHING QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z/01 MODELS
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST,
WITH THE GFS/GEFS NOW FORECASTING A CLOSED LOW TO FORM WELL TO OUR
WEST BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH THE CLOSED LOW FORMING AND SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE OH VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY NOW LOOKS VERY WARM
WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS FALLING A
BIT, ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRI NIGHT. THE LOCAL AREA IS
CURRENTLY ONLY IN GENERAL THUNDER, BUT THIS COULD BE INCREASED TO A
MARGINAL RISK WITH LATER UPDATES DUE TO INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FLOW
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
WITH AN EVEN SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH/FRONT, SATURDAY
IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH WIDESPREAD MID 80S IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, TSTMS WILL BECOME LIKELY WEST OF I-95 BY THE
AFTN/EVENING...WHILE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STILL UNSURE IF AREAS NEAR THE COAST SEE THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP SAT/SAT NIGHT...BUT AREAS WEST OF I-95 LIKELY SEE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS WELL (AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH). THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ON BOTH FRI/SAT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 255 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY/MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM CHANCES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE 00Z/01 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A CUTOFF
LOW FORMING TO OUR WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOW ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF/CMC AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA AS THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE OH VALLEY. PWS
POTENTIALLY APPROACH 1.5-1.9" BY SUNDAY WITH A DECENT MOISTURE FEED
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW (ORIGINATING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC).
AS A RESULT, FEEL THAT WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING,
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
THE FORECAST WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, NOW SHOWING HIGH CHANCE-
LIKELY POPS ON MON/TUE WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED ON
BOTH DAYS (HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING).
SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE BEST
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE COULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY THEN (AND ONLY HAVE
CHC POPS). HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FROM MON-WED. IT'S STILL HARD TO
PINPOINT SPECIFICS ATTM BUT ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A WIDESPREAD 0.50-
1.25" OF QPF FROM MON-WED.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 625 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z/01 TAF PERIOD. A
WEAK FRONT RETREATS TO THE NORTH TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT RIC/SBY,
WHERE PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR OUTSIDE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OR AFTERNOON CUMULUS.
OUTLOOK: A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BUT
IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT CROSSES THE AREA OR STALLS TO OUR
WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE NOW APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT THERE
WILL BE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED COVERAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LINGERING FRONTAL PASSAGE LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUB-SCA ONSHORE FLOW.
- POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- A PERIOD OF ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW AND SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST
NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH A 1022MB HIGH
PRESSURE JUST LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN VARIABLE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 1 FT IN THE BAY AND 2 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN.
LATER THIS MORNING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH
AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE BETWEEN 10 TO 15
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD THROUGH THE DAY TO 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 3 TO 4 FT
ACROSS THE OCEAN. BY TONIGHT, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKER WINDS DUE TO THE
LIMITED MIXING THAT WILL OCCUR DUE TO STABLE AIR THAT WILL OCCUR
AS WARMER AIR TRAVELS OVER THE COOLER WATERS. THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES AS SEAS WILL BUILD BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FT.
THEN BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
BRINGING PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THE NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE (0Z)
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CUT OFF LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW COULD POTENTIALLY
BRING SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN AS SEAS COULD BUILD
BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...HET/RHR
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