034
FXUS61 KAKQ 011955
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND, BUT LIKELY REMAINS TO OUR WEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SLOW MOVING/CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 355 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND INTO THE MD EASTERN SHORE.
- MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS 1004MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SW AND A WARM FRONT TO THE SE. ALOFT, AN
UPPER RIDGE IS HOLDING STRONG ACROSS THE SE CONUS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST. THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTH FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL AREA BUT REMAINS HUNG UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK, SE INTO
THE EASTERN SHORE. ENHANCED SHEAR AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORED NEAR THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONG STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND HAIL AROUND 1 INCH ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CORES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BY
THIS EVENING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S (POTENTIALLY UPPER 50S ALONG THE MD ATLANTIC COAST
INCLUDING OCEAN CITY).
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 355 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NW 1/2 OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH VERY WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN BE STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE.
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AND
TRANSLATE NE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR MODEST HIGH FALLS ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM SOUTH HILL NORTHEAST TO COLONIAL HEIGHTS AND LEWISETTA, VA. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL AGAIN BE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL
AROUND 1 INCH. STORM COVERAGE REMAINS A QUESTION WITH MOST OF THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. STRONGER
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE OUR AREA MAY TEND TO COMPENSATE FOR THE LESS
ROBUST FORCING, HOWEVER. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 30% FOR NOW.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE EVENING WITH
JUST SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
REMAINING UNSETTLED ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT EDGING CLOSER TO THE
AREA. POPS WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM NEAR WINDSOR, NC NORTHEAST TO SALISBURY, MD. STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERNS BUT DEEPENING
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
(MINUS THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN
A BIT). HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S
FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 355 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY/MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM CHANCES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE 12Z/01 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A CUTOFF LOW
FORMING TO OUR WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE NOW ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF/CMC AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA AS THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE OH VALLEY. PWS
POTENTIALLY APPROACH 1.5-1.9" BY SUNDAY WITH A DECENT MOISTURE FEED
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW (ORIGINATING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC).
AS A RESULT, FEEL THAT WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING,
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
THE FORECAST WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, NOW SHOWING HIGH CHANCE-
LIKELY POPS ON MON/TUE WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED ON
BOTH DAYS (HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING).
SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE BEST
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE COULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY THEN (AND ONLY HAVE
CHC POPS). HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FROM MON-WED. IT'S STILL HARD TO
PINPOINT SPECIFICS ATTM BUT ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A WIDESPREAD 0.50-
1.25" OF QPF FROM MON-WED.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z/01 TAF PERIOD.
FEW/SCT CU HAVE STARTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BASES
AROUND 5000 FT. A WEAK FRONT IS LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND MAY SPARK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LOCAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY
CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO FORM. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER
PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY,
HOWEVER. WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 AT SBY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. WINDS ARE QUITE
CHAOTIC THIS AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS REMAINING ON THE EASTERN
SHORE. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT (RIC, PHF, ECG) BUT SYNOPTIC FLOW IS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW
ORF TO GO EASTERLY AS THE SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INLAND.
FLOW BECOMES SW ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BUT
IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THIS FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW APPEARS TO
BE LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDS SHIFT TO THE SSW TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO ~15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT.
- SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE MARINE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEK, DUE TO DISCREPANCIES WITH
RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW. IN GENERAL, ELEVATED
SE WINDS WITH SEAS 4-5 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AFTN SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NNE,
GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL
ZONES THIS AFTN. HOWEVER, THIS FRONT IS QUITE WEAK/DIFFUSE AND
WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE STILL RATHER LIGHT FROM THE E-SE
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY (SEABREEZE TAKING OVER),
WHILE BING MORE FORM THE S ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAY. WAVES
ARE 1-2 FT OR LESS, WITH SEAS ~2FT.
BY TONIGHT, SE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE S, AND INCREASE TO
~15 KT WITH GUSTS TO ~20 KT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 06-12Z EARLY FRIDAY, WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING ANY SCA
HEADLINES TONIGHT GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL/SHORT DURATION NATURE
OF THIS EVENT (DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MIXING THAT WILL
OCCUR DUE TO STABLE AIR AS WARMER AIR TRAVELS OVER THE COOLER
WATERS). THE BEST CHC AT SEEING SCA CONDITIONS WILL COME
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A
BIT MORE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE W. AT THIS
TIME, SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FT N OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND WITH WAVES TO ~3 FT IN THE BAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN BY SUNDAY. BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
A SFC TROUGH LINGERING ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST,
WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SE, AND REMAINING ELEVATED AROUND 15
KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL TEND TO CONTINUE IN THE 4-5 FT
RANGE (POTENTIALLY HIGHER IF THE WINDS WERE TO BACK MORE TO THE
EAST, OR LESS IF THEY REMAIN MORE SOUTHERLY). SCAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO MIDWEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ERI/RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...HET/LKB
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