606
FXUS61 KAKQ 020526
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND, BUT LIKELY REMAINS TO OUR WEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SLOW MOVING/CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 1210 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
EVENING ANALYSIS SHOWS 1001MB LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SW AND A WARM FRONT TO THE
SE. ALOFT, AN UPPER RIDGE IS HOLDING STRONG ACROSS THE SE CONUS
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THE WARM FRONT LIFTED TO
THE NORTH FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA BUT HUNG UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NECK, SE INTO THE EASTERN SHORE, BECOMING A STATIONARY
FRONT THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 12AM STILL LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE AREA. TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S (POTENTIALLY UPPER 50S ALONG THE MD ATLANTIC COAST
INCLUDING OCEAN CITY).
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 355 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NW 1/2 OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH VERY WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN BE STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE.
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AND
TRANSLATE NE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR MODEST HIGH FALLS ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM SOUTH HILL NORTHEAST TO COLONIAL HEIGHTS AND LEWISETTA, VA. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL AGAIN BE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL
AROUND 1 INCH. STORM COVERAGE REMAINS A QUESTION WITH MOST OF THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. STRONGER
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE OUR AREA MAY TEND TO COMPENSATE FOR THE LESS
ROBUST FORCING, HOWEVER. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 30% FOR NOW.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE EVENING WITH
JUST SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
REMAINING UNSETTLED ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT EDGING CLOSER TO THE
AREA. POPS WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM NEAR WINDSOR, NC NORTHEAST TO SALISBURY, MD. STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERNS BUT DEEPENING
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
(MINUS THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN
A BIT). HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S
FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 355 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY/MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM CHANCES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE 12Z/01 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A CUTOFF LOW
FORMING TO OUR WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE NOW ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF/CMC AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA AS THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE OH VALLEY. PWS
POTENTIALLY APPROACH 1.5-1.9" BY SUNDAY WITH A DECENT MOISTURE FEED
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW (ORIGINATING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC).
AS A RESULT, FEEL THAT WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING,
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
THE FORECAST WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, NOW SHOWING HIGH CHANCE-
LIKELY POPS ON MON/TUE WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED ON
BOTH DAYS (HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING).
SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE BEST
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE COULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY THEN (AND ONLY HAVE
CHC POPS). HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FROM MON-WED. IT'S STILL HARD TO
PINPOINT SPECIFICS ATTM BUT ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A WIDESPREAD 0.50-
1.25" OF QPF FROM MON-WED.
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL MAJOR TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z/02
TAF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT LINGERS AROUND THE AREA, NOW JUST
MOVING NORTH OF SBY SHIFTING THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH, WHILE
ALL OTHER TERMINALS HAVE SHIFTED TO BE OUT OF THE SSW. SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED AT RIC AND ORF THIS EVENING, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT FOR ALL. ISOLATED GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO HAPPEN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
BUT WILL FULLY MAKE A RETURN BETWEEN 12-14Z/02 AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT RIC, SO HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 FOR THIS
CHANCE OF STORMS BETWEEN 20Z/02-00Z/03. LOCAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY STORMS THAT MAY
FORM. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OTHER TERMINALS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME IS TO LOW TO ADD A PROB30 TO THEIR TAFS.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDS SHIFT TO THE SSW TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO ~15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT.
- SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE MARINE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEK, DUE TO DISCREPANCIES WITH
RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW. IN GENERAL, ELEVATED
SE WINDS WITH SEAS 4-5 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AFTN SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NNE,
GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL
ZONES THIS AFTN. HOWEVER, THIS FRONT IS QUITE WEAK/DIFFUSE AND
WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE STILL RATHER LIGHT FROM THE E-SE
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY (SEABREEZE TAKING OVER),
WHILE BING MORE FORM THE S ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAY. WAVES
ARE 1-2 FT OR LESS, WITH SEAS ~2FT.
BY TONIGHT, SE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE S, AND INCREASE TO
~15 KT WITH GUSTS TO ~20 KT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 06-12Z EARLY FRIDAY, WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING ANY SCA
HEADLINES TONIGHT GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL/SHORT DURATION NATURE
OF THIS EVENT (DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MIXING THAT WILL
OCCUR DUE TO STABLE AIR AS WARMER AIR TRAVELS OVER THE COOLER
WATERS). THE BEST CHC AT SEEING SCA CONDITIONS WILL COME
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A
BIT MORE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE W. AT THIS
TIME, SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FT N OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND WITH WAVES TO ~3 FT IN THE BAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN BY SUNDAY. BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
A SFC TROUGH LINGERING ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST,
WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SE, AND REMAINING ELEVATED AROUND 15
KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL TEND TO CONTINUE IN THE 4-5 FT
RANGE (POTENTIALLY HIGHER IF THE WINDS WERE TO BACK MORE TO THE
EAST, OR LESS IF THEY REMAIN MORE SOUTHERLY). SCAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO MIDWEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ERI/RHR
NEAR TERM...HET/KMC
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...HET/KMC
MARINE...HET/LKB
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