894
FXUS61 KAKQ 020716
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
316 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THIS WEEKEND, BUT LIKELY REMAINS TO OUR WEST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW
MOVING/CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- VERY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
- A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING
IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A 1002MB LOW IS NOW CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A 1022MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
BERMUDA. THE WARM FRONT FROM YESTERDAY HAS LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT STILL REMAINS A MIX OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 215 AM ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH
LOWS REACHING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
THE AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HELPING
INITIATE THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE
THREAT IS LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR. THESE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OF TONIGHT BUT THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE AS THE INSTABILITY DECREASES. LOWS
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONING ITSELF ACROSS
THE MOD-ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, THE STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE
POSITIONED NORTH OF VIRGINIA, WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
NEAR WINDSOR, NC NORTHEAST TO SALISBURY, MD. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE BETTER WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY THE GREATEST RISK
OF THESE SEVERE HAZARDS ABOVE WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS VA/NC
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
CIRCULATION FROM THE TROUGH DETACHES AND BECOMES A CUT OFF LOW. THIS
LOW ALOFT WILL LINGER AND HELP BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER, THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE CUT OFF LOW LINGERING
AND FETCHING IN MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY/MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 00Z/02 ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW. THE GEFS IS NOW LINING UP
SIMILAR WITH THE CMC/ECMWF. BY MONDAY THE LOW WILL REVERT WEST, THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE PWS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND
COASTAL ZONES ON MONDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 1.2- 1.5". AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES THE CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS DO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE LATEST ENSEMBLES SHOW A NEW CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BU LATE NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BRING
MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL MAJOR TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z/02
TAF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT LINGERS AROUND THE AREA, NOW JUST
MOVING NORTH OF SBY SHIFTING THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH, WHILE
ALL OTHER TERMINALS HAVE SHIFTED TO BE OUT OF THE SSW. SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED AT RIC AND ORF THIS EVENING, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT FOR ALL. ISOLATED GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO HAPPEN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
BUT WILL FULLY MAKE A RETURN BETWEEN 12-14Z/02 AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT RIC, SO HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 FOR THIS
CHANCE OF STORMS BETWEEN 20Z/02-00Z/03. LOCAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY STORMS THAT MAY
FORM. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OTHER TERMINALS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME IS TO LOW TO ADD A PROB30 TO THEIR TAFS.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE PROBABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FAVORED EARLY NEXT WEEK DESPITE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
SSW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE OCCURING ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THIS MORNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SSW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SEAS 2-4 FT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH WAVES 1-2
FT IN THE BAY.
THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SCA CONDITIONS (S WIND GUSTS ~25 KT) WILL
COME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP A BIT MORE WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME, SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD BETWEEN 4 TO 5
FT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND WITH WAVES TO ~3 FT IN THE BAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN BY SUNDAY. BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A SFC TROUGH LINGERING ALONG OR JUST INLAND
FROM THE COAST, WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SE, AND REMAINING 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL TEND TO CONTINUE
IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE (POTENTIALLY HIGHER IF THE WINDS WERE TO BACK
MORE TO THE EAST). SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED AT THIS TIME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HET/RHR
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HET/RHR
AVIATION...HET/KMC
MARINE...JDM/LKB
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