064
FXUS61 KAKQ 022012
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND, BUT REMAINS TO OUR WEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SLOW MOVING/CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALOFT, FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND RIDGING EAST OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH A FEW STORMS
NOTED ON RADAR TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF 3PM.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NEBULOUS AT
BEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
STORMS. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BUT SHEAR IS
ONLY AROUND 25 KT. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THE ALL BUT THE EASTERN SHORE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY MILD IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON, SPREADING
EAST OVERNIGHT.
- A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MIDWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED THE NW HALF
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A
SLIGHT RISK JUST CLIPPING WESTERN PORTIONS OF FLUVANNA AND LOUISA
COUNTIES AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MODEST HEIGHT
FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY W.
CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN THE PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY
LIFTING NNE INTO EARLY EVENING. STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREAT BUT SOME HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD UNTIL LATE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WHEN INSTABILITY WANES. THUS, THE SEVERE
THREAT IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. SHOWERS
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER SPREAD EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. QPF WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE WEST, GENERALLY 0.25-0.5". LOWS REMAIN
MILD OVERNIGHT, IN THE LOW 60S W TO THE MID 60S E.
RAIN AND STORMS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING BECOMING MORE OF A CONCERN THAN WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO 1.5-1.7". EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES TO THE NW BY LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FAVORED ACROSS THE EAST AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S W TO THE LOW 60S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL EVOLVE/EJECT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY
REMAINS QUITE UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LOCALLY MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE FROM SW TO NE ON TUESDAY. MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE TO
HANDLE CLOSED UPPER LOWS SO DETAILS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL SHOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES MONDAY, A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE MID TO
LATE WEEK WHICH KEEPS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AREA. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A DRIER PERIOD WED/THURS WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STICK NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 02/18Z TAF
PERIOD. SW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH BASES 4-5 KFT. SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS QUITE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS AT ORF AND ECG THIS EVENING WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINALLY HIGHER. SW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT RESUMES
TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAISED SCAS FOR THE BAY, SOUND, PORTIONS OF THE RIVERS, AND
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FAVORED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL INLAND.
SSW WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT (AFTER
BEING 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT EARLIER TODAY). EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ~15KT WITH GUSTS TO ~20KT, BUT
AGAIN DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE, REFRAINED FROM ISSUING ANY
SCAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL AVG. 3-4 FT N AND 2-3
FT S, WITH WAVES 1-2 FT IN THE BAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT MORE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST LATER SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME, SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FT N OF CAPE
CHARLES, WITH WAVES TO ~3 FT IN THE BAY (UP TO 3-4 FT NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY GIVEN A PERIOD WITH WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO
THE SSE). SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA
LATER SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
BY SUNDAY, WITH WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING TO SUB-SCA LEVELS.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A SFC TROUGH
LINGERING INLAND FROM THE COAST, WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SSE,
AND REMAINING 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEAS WILL TEND TO CONTINUE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ633-636>638.
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...JDM/LKB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page