237
FXUS61 KAKQ 030525
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND, BUT REMAINS TO OUR WEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SLOW MOVING/CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 1145 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
EVENING ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALOFT,
THE FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST AND RIDGING EAST OF FLORIDA.
NEARLY ALL OF OUR CWA IS DRY THIS EVENING, THOUGH AM NOTING A
DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING OUR INTERIOR SW COUNTIES OF VA AND NE NC. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS WANING AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DEVELOPING INHIBITION ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. STILL, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, EXPECT SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANY SEVERE THREAT HAS WANED, SO WOULD
ONLY EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN IN ANY ISOLATED
STORMS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
REMAIN DISPLACED WELL W/NW OF THE AREA SO CONFIDENCE REGARDING
ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IS LOW. GIVEN VARIOUS CAMS SHOWING SOME
SHOWERS AROUND, WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD 20% POP FOR MOST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY MILD IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON, SPREADING
EAST OVERNIGHT.
- A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MIDWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED THE NW HALF
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A
SLIGHT RISK JUST CLIPPING WESTERN PORTIONS OF FLUVANNA AND LOUISA
COUNTIES AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MODEST HEIGHT
FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY W.
CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN THE PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY
LIFTING NNE INTO EARLY EVENING. STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREAT BUT SOME HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD UNTIL LATE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WHEN INSTABILITY WANES. THUS, THE SEVERE
THREAT IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. SHOWERS
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER SPREAD EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. QPF WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE WEST, GENERALLY 0.25-0.5". LOWS REMAIN
MILD OVERNIGHT, IN THE LOW 60S W TO THE MID 60S E.
RAIN AND STORMS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING BECOMING MORE OF A CONCERN THAN WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO 1.5-1.7". EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES TO THE NW BY LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FAVORED ACROSS THE EAST AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S W TO THE LOW 60S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL EVOLVE/EJECT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY
REMAINS QUITE UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LOCALLY MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE FROM SW TO NE ON TUESDAY. MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE TO
HANDLE CLOSED UPPER LOWS SO DETAILS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL SHOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES MONDAY, A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE MID TO
LATE WEEK WHICH KEEPS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AREA. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A DRIER PERIOD WED/THURS WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STICK NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 6Z/03 TAF PERIOD. SKIES
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS VA/NC AND MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MD.
SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE ON GOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SW WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
SKY COVER TO BECOME BKN BUT AGAIN REMAIN VFR. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD NOT
CAUSE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS RIC, PHF, ORF THIS
EVENING/EARLY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AROUND 10 TO
15 KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. THESE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING. SCT CU SHOULD ALSO REDEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS/STORMS POTENTIALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
LATE IN THE DAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT AND W OF RIC.
OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAISED SCAS FOR THE BAY, SOUND, PORTIONS OF THE RIVERS, AND
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FAVORED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL INLAND.
SSW WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT (AFTER
BEING 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT EARLIER TODAY). EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ~15KT WITH GUSTS TO ~20KT, BUT
AGAIN DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE, REFRAINED FROM ISSUING ANY
SCAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL AVG. 3-4 FT N AND 2-3
FT S, WITH WAVES 1-2 FT IN THE BAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT MORE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST LATER SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME, SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FT N OF CAPE
CHARLES, WITH WAVES TO ~3 FT IN THE BAY (UP TO 3-4 FT NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY GIVEN A PERIOD WITH WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO
THE SSE). SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA
LATER SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
BY SUNDAY, WITH WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING TO SUB-SCA LEVELS.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A SFC TROUGH
LINGERING INLAND FROM THE COAST, WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SSE,
AND REMAINING 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEAS WILL TEND TO CONTINUE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-636>638.
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...HET/SW
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...JDM/LKB
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