530
FXUS61 KAKQ 030727
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
327 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND, BUT REMAINS TO OUR WEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING/CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- VERY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE UPPER
80S.
- A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE) ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EARLY MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
SOON BECOME A CUTOFF LOW IS NOW POSITIONING ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A 1020MB HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER BERMUDA CONTINUING TO ADVECT WARM AND MOIST
AIR ACROSS THE AREA. UP TO THE NORTH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPERATURE'S ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ARE IN THE LOWER
70S TO UPPER 60S AS OF 230AM. CLOUD COVER FROM THE SHOWERS EARLIER
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING. HOWEVER, THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LETTING TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. SOME SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE
TIDEWATER AREA THIS MORNING AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
LATER TODAY THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. WHILE AT
THE SURFACE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT
AND ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S AS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL TAKE
PLACE (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S) ALLOWING WEAK TO MODEST
INSTABILITY TO BUILD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
WILL BE BETWEEN 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG AND MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES
NEARING 1000 J/KG. WEAK TO MODEST SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH EFF SHEAR BETWEEN 30 TO 35KT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ANY
STORM THAT IS ABLE TO INITIATE. SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDING
SHOW STRONG LAPSE RATES AND LARGE INVERTED V'S WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FOR THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND A
MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR THE OTHER HALF OF THE AREA. RECENT CAMS HAVE
SHOWN BETTER CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE FRONT WILL
BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY. ELSEWHERE, STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO INITIATE
AS THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER TO THE WEST.
BY THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND ADVANCE EAST. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAY
TIME HEATING IS LOST. HOWEVER, THESE SHOWERS COULD STILL POTENTIALLY
POSE THE RISK OF GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER
THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH SOME MUCAPE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. QPF
WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE WEST, GENERALLY 0.25-0.5". LOWS REMAIN
MILD OVERNIGHT, IN THE LOW 60S W TO THE MID 60S E.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95.
BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL DETACH ITSELF FROM THE JET STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA. THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. IN WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS CLOUD COVER WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH WOULD HALT DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S) AND NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN. THE SPC
HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95. WITH THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY STORMS MAY
STRUGGLE. HOWEVER, IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IT COULD POSE THE
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR
SUNDAY IS POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5-1.7"
ACROSS EASTERN VA. LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES TO THE NW BY LATE SUNDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORED ACROSS THE EAST AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S W TO THE LOW 60S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
BY MONDAY THE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AND TAKE
ON A SEMI NEGATIVELY TILTED SHAPE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW A DECENT 850MB FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC FETCHING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS CLOUD COVER DOES DECREASE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE 00Z/03 ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW. THE GEFS IS NOW LINING UP
SIMILAR WITH THE CMC/ECMWF. BY TUESDAY THE CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE OR AT SEASONAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 80S AND UPPER 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER DAYS
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
INTO PLACE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST ENSEMBLES SHOW A NEW CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BY LATE NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BRING
MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 6Z/03 TAF PERIOD. SKIES
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS VA/NC AND MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MD.
SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE ON GOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SW WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
SKY COVER TO BECOME BKN BUT AGAIN REMAIN VFR. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD NOT
CAUSE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS RIC, PHF, ORF THIS
EVENING/EARLY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AROUND 10 TO
15 KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. THESE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING. SCT CU SHOULD ALSO REDEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS/STORMS POTENTIALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
LATE IN THE DAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT AND W OF RIC.
OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,
CURRITUCK SOUND, YORK AND JAMES RIVERS, AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH INLAND AND WAVY COLD FRONT WELL W OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WIND IS GENERALLY SW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20KT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS RANGE FROM 2-3FT S TO 3-4FT N
WITH WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY APPROXIMATELY 2-3FT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING
INLAND, AND LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE W. THE WIND
WILL RELAX A FEW KTS DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. HOWEVER, THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH A S
TO SSE WIND INCREASING TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT. SEAS ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO BUILD TO 4-5FT N OF CAPE CHARLES, WITH WAVES IN THE CHES.
BAY ~3FT, AND POTENTIALLY UP TO 3-4FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS THE
WIND BACKS TO SSE. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST ZONES LATER THIS
AFTN INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AND
THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TENDS TO WEAKEN BY SUNDAY WITH THE WIND AND
SEAS DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING TO SUB-SCA LEVELS. BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS TEND TO SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING
INLAND WITH THE WIND BACKING TO SE/SSE AT 10-15KT, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 3-4FT, WITH
WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY GENERALLY 1-2FT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-636>638.
SYNOPSIS...HET/RHR
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET/RHR
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
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