116
FXUS61 KAKQ 031849
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
249 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND, BUT REMAINS TO OUR WEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING/CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
AS OF 1130 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- WARM WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S.
- A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STRONG/SEVERE) ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL SOON BECOME A
CUTOFF LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
BERMUDA CONTINUING TO ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND STRETCHES
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AS OF 1115AM. SATELLITE SHOWS INCREASING
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH MIXING GETTING UNDERWAY.
LATER TODAY, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN IN THE LEE
OF THE HIGHER BLUE RIDGE TERRAIN. STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION,
WARMEST EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO FILL IN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED TO
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SPREADING EAST
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. MODEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING. STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL AROUND 1 INCH
ARE THE MAIN THREATS TODAY. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) FOR WESTERN LOUISA AND FLUVANNA COUNTIES. A
MARGINAL RISK (1/5) EXTENDS TO THE EAST TOWARD THE I-95
CORRIDOR. PRECIP SPREADS EAST TONIGHT BUT INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER 10PM SO CONFIDENCE IN SEEING AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT
OVERNIGHT IS LOW. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE COAST BY SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95.
BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL DETACH ITSELF FROM THE JET STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA. THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. IN WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS CLOUD COVER WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH WOULD HALT DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S) AND NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN. THE SPC
HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95. WITH THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY STORMS MAY
STRUGGLE. HOWEVER, IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IT COULD POSE THE
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR
SUNDAY IS POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5-1.7"
ACROSS EASTERN VA. LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES TO THE NW BY LATE SUNDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORED ACROSS THE EAST AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S W TO THE LOW 60S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
BY MONDAY THE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AND TAKE
ON A SEMI NEGATIVELY TILTED SHAPE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW A DECENT 850MB FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC FETCHING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS CLOUD COVER DOES DECREASE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE 00Z/03 ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW. THE GEFS IS NOW LINING UP
SIMILAR WITH THE CMC/ECMWF. BY TUESDAY THE CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE OR AT SEASONAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 80S AND UPPER 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER DAYS
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
INTO PLACE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST ENSEMBLES SHOW A NEW CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BY LATE NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BRING
MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES FOR AREAS WEST OF RIC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, SPREADING EAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY, ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
EAST TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE
TO UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING. SW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS
20-25 KT CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING S ~10 KT TONIGHT.
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN MOVING INTO THE RIC AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS (PHF,
ORF, SBY, ECG). WHILE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, MEAGER
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP DEEPER CONVECTION IN CHECK OVERNIGHT. LOCAL
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,
CURRITUCK SOUND, YORK AND JAMES RIVERS, AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WINDS
THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER BAY PEAKED AT 18-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS, BUT HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF A FEW KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES
ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2 FT. THE COASTAL WATERS ARE SEEING WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, AND SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NEARS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE. WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REACH AROUND 20 KTS, WITH
SOME AREAS BRIEFLY SEEING 20-25 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT N
OF CAPE CHARLES OVERNIGHT DURING THIS SURGE. WINDS IN THE BAY WILL
PEAK AT AROUND 20 KTS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT, WITH SEAS OF UP
TO 3-4 FT POSSIBLE IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR MOST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AND THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
CHARLES.
THE GRADIENT WILL START TO RELAX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, DROPPING
WINDS DOWN TO AROUND 10-15 KT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO AMBLE AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK, WHICH WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL START TO VEER TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-NEXT WEEK AFTER
TONIGHT'S SURGE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 3-4 FT, WITH
WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY GENERALLY 1-2 FT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ636>638.
SYNOPSIS...HET/RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJZ/NB
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