407
FXUS61 KAKQ 040508
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
108 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING/CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY LINGER THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 855 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EASTWARD AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS OF THIS
WRITING, WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY, WITH THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW OVER E KY. SEVERAL
SPOKES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE EVIDENT IN THE SSW FLOW ALOFT
LIFTING FROM THE E TN VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING,
LIFTING NNE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF
THE HIGHER BLUE RIDGE TERRAIN. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS OVER THE VA
PIEDMONT, SPREADING EAST TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY ~06Z LATE THIS
EVENING AND HEADING TOWARD THE COAST TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY, AND
POPS ACCORDINGLY INCREASE THROUGH 06Z INLAND, BETWEEN 06-09Z FOR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN
SHORE AFTER 09-12Z/SUNDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE LINE MOVES EAST AND IS ENHANCED BY INCREASING
PW VALUES LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE COAST
BY SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 340 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL TRANSLATES TOWARD THE COAST SUNDAY
MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE UPPER LOW WON'T MOVE MUCH ON SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN JET CORE WELL
TO THE NORTH IN CANADA. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE OVERNIGHT SLUG
OF MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
DON'T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MID 70S WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BY
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AT
~25 KT BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BEHIND THE
MORNING COASTAL ACTIVITY. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK
(1/5) OVER INLAND AREAS. GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
MARGINAL SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES LIKELY TO LIMIT THE LARGE
HAIL THREAT. PW WILL REMAIN HIGH BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD
SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN OVER THE
SAME SPOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S W TO THE LOW/MID 60S E.
UNSETTLED PERIOD CONTINUES MONDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL ANCHORED
TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S INLAND (MID 70S
EASTERN SHORE). WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT
AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 50S W TO LOW 60S
E.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 340 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRYING OUT A BIT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE WEEK.
THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO BE DISPLACED TOWARD THE
COAST BEFORE MOVING N. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR
COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION, KEEPING TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S. MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE
AND THE NEXT UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE ARKLATEX. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC LIKELY WEDGES SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING MOISTURE FROM THE SW, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS WEAK CAD SETS UP. CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
RETURNS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS
LOW.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 110 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. FURTHER TO THE WEST SHOWERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN BUT ARE
CONTINUING TO NUDGE SLIGHTLY EAST. ACROSS NE NC SOME SHOWERS
HAVE INITIATED BUT SHOULD NOT BRING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
ECG. S ~10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE TERMINALS CLOSER TO
THE COAST HAVING AN OCCASIONAL GUST UPWARDS OF 20 KT. LATEST
CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
RIC AREA BY ~06-08Z/2-4 AM LATE TONIGHT, REACHING THE EASTERN
TERMINALS (PHF, ORF, SBY, ECG) CLOSER TO 10-13Z (6-9AM). WHILE
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AROUND AND JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE, MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP DEEPER CONVECTION IN
CHECK OVERNIGHT. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE HEAVIER SHOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS TAPERS OF BETWEEN 14-18Z,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT DISCERNING THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THESE SHOWERS IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, AND
SHRA/TSRA WORDING HAS BEEN HELD OUT FOR NOW FOR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,
CURRITUCK SOUND, YORK AND JAMES RIVERS, AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WINDS
THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER BAY PEAKED AT 18-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS, BUT HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF A FEW KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES
ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2 FT. THE COASTAL WATERS ARE SEEING WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, AND SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NEARS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE. WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REACH AROUND 20 KTS, WITH
SOME AREAS BRIEFLY SEEING 20-25 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT N
OF CAPE CHARLES OVERNIGHT DURING THIS SURGE. WINDS IN THE BAY WILL
PEAK AT AROUND 20 KTS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT, WITH SEAS OF UP
TO 3-4 FT POSSIBLE IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR MOST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AND THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
CHARLES.
THE GRADIENT WILL START TO RELAX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, DROPPING
WINDS DOWN TO AROUND 10-15 KT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO AMBLE AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK, WHICH WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL START TO VEER TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-NEXT WEEK AFTER
TONIGHT'S SURGE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 3-4 FT, WITH
WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY GENERALLY 1-2 FT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...MAM/RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...AJZ/NB
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