551
FXUS61 KAKQ 040705
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
305 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW
MOVING/CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MAYBE SEVERE.
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A 1008MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
SITTING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH ITS COLD FRONT
DRAPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NE NC MOVING EAST. BEHIND THESE SLIGHT SHOWERS SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED TO THE SW ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND
BRING HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. BASED OFF THE LATEST DATA THERE IS SOME
WEAK CAPE THAT HAS BEEN LEFT OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THIS HAD LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THESE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUING TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH. LOWS WILL BE BETWEEN
THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AS IT DETACHES
ITSELF FROM THE MAIN JET ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO FEED INTO AREA WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING UP INTO THE LOWER 60S. WITH THIS DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGING
INTO THE AREA CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TO PERSIST KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SHEAR ~25 TO 30
KT BUT THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM. ONE OF THE MAIN FACTORS FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IS
INSTABILITY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY (~1000J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE) TO BUILD IN. GIVEN THE POOR
LAPSE RATES TODAY SEVERE HAIL MAY STRUGGLE TO FORM. THE BIGGEST RISK
OF THE DAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PW WILL REMAIN HIGH BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER, URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
TRAIN OVER THE SAME SPOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL BE FAVORED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S W TO THE LOW/MID 60S E.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE QUIETING DOWN BY
TUESDAY.
THE STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SIT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL POSITION
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS (SOME
MAYBE SEVERE) WILL POTENTIALLY FIRE ALONG FRONT MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WIND, AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. JUST LIKE
SUNDAY SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT. THIS WOULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THE HAIL THREAT IS QUITE
MARGINAL AS WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE. ONE OF THE FACTORS
THAT COULD BE LIMITED AGAIN IS INSTABILITY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
REMAINING PERSISTENT ACROSS THE AREA NOT ALLOWING STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING TO TAKE PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WILL LOWER 80S.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS AS THE
SOIL WILL BE SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME SPOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND
SOME DRIER WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHER POTION OF THE
CWA BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. UP ACROSS THE NORTH POPS REMAIN
BETWEEN 20 TO 30% FOR AN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THAT WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW. TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. E.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND AT THE
SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BOUNCE BACK AGAIN THE THE LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THAT UPPER LOW COULD
POTENTIALLY LOCK IN MUCH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND PUT THE
REGION INTO A CAD. SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM CHANCES OF RAIN DO INCREASE BY
NEXT THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 110 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. FURTHER TO THE WEST SHOWERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN BUT ARE
CONTINUING TO NUDGE SLIGHTLY EAST. ACROSS NE NC SOME SHOWERS
HAVE INITIATED BUT SHOULD NOT BRING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
ECG. S ~10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE TERMINALS CLOSER TO
THE COAST HAVING AN OCCASIONAL GUST UPWARDS OF 20 KT. LATEST
CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
RIC AREA BY ~06-08Z/2-4 AM LATE TONIGHT, REACHING THE EASTERN
TERMINALS (PHF, ORF, SBY, ECG) CLOSER TO 10-13Z (6-9AM). WHILE
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AROUND AND JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE, MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP DEEPER CONVECTION IN
CHECK OVERNIGHT. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE HEAVIER SHOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS TAPERS OF BETWEEN 14-18Z,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT DISCERNING THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THESE SHOWERS IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, AND
SHRA/TSRA WORDING HAS BEEN HELD OUT FOR NOW FOR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED
INLAND. THE WIND IS PRIMARILY S 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
~20KT. SEAS RANGE FROM 2-3FT S TO 3-4FT N, WITH WAVES IN THE CHES.
BAY APPROXIMATELY 2FT. CONDITIONS ARE SUB-SCA AT THIS TIME, SO
REMAINING SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES AND THE
CHES. BAY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS W OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TAKE MORE OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO BACK TO SE/SSE 10-15KT, ASIDE FROM A
TRANSIENT DIURNAL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 2-3FT NEARSHORE
AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY
~2FT TODAY THEN 1-2FT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO
THE W WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT NE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A S TO SSW WIND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, SHIFTING TO WNW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BEFORE RETURNING TO S/SSE LATER WEDNESDAY AFTN. SEAS WILL
PRIMARILY BE 2-3FT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE
CHES. BAY. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY PUSHES N-S
ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING REMAINS LOW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
SYNOPSIS...HET/RHR
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...AJZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page