992
FXUS61 KAKQ 041040
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
640 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW
MOVING/CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 630 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MAYBE SEVERE.
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A 1008MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
SITTING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH ITS COLD FRONT
DRAPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED ON RADAR
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FAR NE NC MOVING EAST. BASED OFF THE
LATEST DATA THERE IS SOME WEAK CAPE THAT HAS BEEN LEFT OVER FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAY AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THIS HAD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
REMAINING STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THESE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS CONTINUING TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
TEMPERATURES DID NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AS IT DETACHES
ITSELF FROM THE MAIN JET ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO FEED INTO AREA WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING UP INTO THE LOWER 60S. WITH THIS DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGING
INTO THE AREA CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TO PERSIST KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SHEAR ~25 TO 30
KT BUT THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM. ONE OF THE MAIN FACTORS FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IS
INSTABILITY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY (~1000J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE) TO BUILD IN. GIVEN THE POOR
LAPSE RATES TODAY SEVERE HAIL MAY STRUGGLE TO FORM. THE BIGGEST RISK
OF THE DAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PW WILL REMAIN HIGH BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER, URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
TRAIN OVER THE SAME SPOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL BE FAVORED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S W TO THE LOW/MID 60S E.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE QUIETING DOWN BY
TUESDAY.
THE STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SIT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL POSITION
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS (SOME
MAYBE SEVERE) WILL POTENTIALLY FIRE ALONG FRONT MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WIND, AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. JUST LIKE
SUNDAY SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT. THIS WOULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THE HAIL THREAT IS QUITE
MARGINAL AS WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE. ONE OF THE FACTORS
THAT COULD BE LIMITED AGAIN IS INSTABILITY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
REMAINING PERSISTENT ACROSS THE AREA NOT ALLOWING STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING TO TAKE PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WILL LOWER 80S.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS AS THE
SOIL WILL BE SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME SPOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND
SOME DRIER WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHER POTION OF THE
CWA BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. UP ACROSS THE NORTH POPS REMAIN
BETWEEN 20 TO 30% FOR AN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THAT WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW. TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. E.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND AT THE
SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BOUNCE BACK AGAIN THE THE LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THAT UPPER LOW COULD
POTENTIALLY LOCK IN MUCH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND PUT THE
REGION INTO A CAD. SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM CHANCES OF RAIN DO INCREASE BY
NEXT THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 640 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAT ACROSS RIC EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING MVFR AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 13 TO 15Z. CIGS AND VIS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS. ONCE THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO PASS VISIBILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TO VFR BUT, CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
SITES. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES HAVE RIC CLEARING TO
VFR CIGS ONCE THESE SHOWERS PASS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO THESE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SSE BETWEEN 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20 KT. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW TO
ADD ANY PROB30 OR TEMPO TO THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED
INLAND. THE WIND IS PRIMARILY S 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
~20KT. SEAS RANGE FROM 2-3FT S TO 3-4FT N, WITH WAVES IN THE CHES.
BAY APPROXIMATELY 2FT. CONDITIONS ARE SUB-SCA AT THIS TIME, SO
REMAINING SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES AND THE
CHES. BAY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS W OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TAKE MORE OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO BACK TO SE/SSE 10-15KT, ASIDE FROM A
TRANSIENT DIURNAL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 2-3FT NEARSHORE
AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY
~2FT TODAY THEN 1-2FT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO
THE W WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT NE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A S TO SSW WIND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, SHIFTING TO WNW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BEFORE RETURNING TO S/SSE LATER WEDNESDAY AFTN. SEAS WILL
PRIMARILY BE 2-3FT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE
CHES. BAY. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY PUSHES N-S
ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING REMAINS LOW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HET/RHR
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...AJZ
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