043
FXUS61 KAKQ 041447
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1047 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SLOW MOVING/CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1047 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME POSSIBLY BEING STRONG TO SEVERE.
- RAIN TAPERS OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S EXPECTED.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. AT THE SURFACE, AN OCCLUDED LOW IS LOCATED
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TENNESSEE, WITH A SECONDARY LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE SECONDARY LOW
THROUGH WESTERN VA THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF.
THE LOCAL RADAR IS DETECTING A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS SHOWED WEAK ROTATION EARLIER, BUT DUE TO THE SHALLOW
NATURE AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, THESE STORMS DID NOT
PRODUCE ANYTHING BUT HEAVY RAINS AND POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES CAPPED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
AREAS IN WESTERN VA BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR OUT. DUE
TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE FRONT AND IT NOT MAKING MUCH EASTWARD
PROGRESS, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH ONLY THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT COUNTIES HAVING THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SUN TRYING TO PEAK
THROUGH. THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS WHETHER OR NOT THE ATMOSPHERE
CAN RECOVER ENOUGH IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THIS INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS IN MIND, QPF VALUES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS CAMS HAVE MORE SCATTERED STORMS RATHER
THAN A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS LIKE WE SAW THIS MORNING. SPC HAS A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/5), AND THE MAIN
THREAT WITHIN ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY.
THE PRIMARY LOW WILL OCCLUDE FURTHER TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE SECONDARY
LOW TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SHOVE THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
STALL THERE, AND PRECIPITATION WILL TRAIL OFF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL EDGE ACROSS OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE QUIETING DOWN BY
TUESDAY.
THE STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SIT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL POSITION
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS (SOME
MAYBE SEVERE) WILL POTENTIALLY FIRE ALONG FRONT MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WIND, AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. JUST LIKE
SUNDAY SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT. THIS WOULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THE HAIL THREAT IS QUITE
MARGINAL AS WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE. ONE OF THE FACTORS
THAT COULD BE LIMITED AGAIN IS INSTABILITY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
REMAINING PERSISTENT ACROSS THE AREA NOT ALLOWING STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING TO TAKE PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WILL LOWER 80S.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS AS THE
SOIL WILL BE SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME SPOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND
SOME DRIER WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHER POTION OF THE
CWA BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. UP ACROSS THE NORTH POPS REMAIN
BETWEEN 20 TO 30% FOR AN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THAT WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW. TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. E.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND AT THE
SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BOUNCE BACK AGAIN THE THE LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THAT UPPER LOW COULD
POTENTIALLY LOCK IN MUCH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND PUT THE
REGION INTO A CAD. SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM CHANCES OF RAIN DO INCREASE BY
NEXT THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 640 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAT ACROSS RIC EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING MVFR AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 13 TO 15Z. CIGS AND VIS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS. ONCE THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO PASS VISIBILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TO VFR BUT, CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
SITES. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES HAVE RIC CLEARING TO
VFR CIGS ONCE THESE SHOWERS PASS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO THESE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SSE BETWEEN 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20 KT. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW TO
ADD ANY PROB30 OR TEMPO TO THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED
INLAND. THE WIND IS PRIMARILY S 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
~20KT. SEAS RANGE FROM 2-3FT S TO 3-4FT N, WITH WAVES IN THE CHES.
BAY APPROXIMATELY 2FT. CONDITIONS ARE SUB-SCA AT THIS TIME, SO
REMAINING SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES AND THE
CHES. BAY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS W OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TAKE MORE OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO BACK TO SE/SSE 10-15KT, ASIDE FROM A
TRANSIENT DIURNAL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 2-3FT NEARSHORE
AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY
~2FT TODAY THEN 1-2FT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO
THE W WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT NE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A S TO SSW WIND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, SHIFTING TO WNW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BEFORE RETURNING TO S/SSE LATER WEDNESDAY AFTN. SEAS WILL
PRIMARILY BE 2-3FT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE
CHES. BAY. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY PUSHES N-S
ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING REMAINS LOW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HET/NB
NEAR TERM...HET/NB
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...AJZ
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