170
FXUS61 KAKQ 041910
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
310 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SLOW MOVING/CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PERIOD OF POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 310 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- RAIN TAPERS OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S EXPECTED.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. AT THE SURFACE, AN OCCLUDED LOW IS LOCATED
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY, WITH A SECONDARY LOW AROUND WEST
VIRGINIA. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE SECONDARY LOW
THROUGH WESTERN VA DOWN TO THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF.
THE COMBINATION OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES CAPPED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE FRONT AND IT NOT MAKING MUCH EASTWARD
PROGRESS, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY STAY PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME SUNSHINE IS
TRYING TO PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS A FEW SOUTH-CENTRAL VA AND NE NC COUNTIES.
IT IS EVIDENT BASED ON THE LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND
SCATTERED STRATIFORM RAIN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRUGGLING TO
RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING'S STORMS, WITH VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE THROUGH THE EVENING, SO
AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE
IS SOME DEEPER UPSTREAM CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SE NC, BUT
GOES VISIBLE SHOWS LESS CLOUD COVER IN THAT AREA WHICH HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE DESTABILIZATION. WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR AREA CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT MAINLY IN NE NC
WHERE ML CAPE IS APPROACHING AROUND 500 J/KG, IT NOT AS LIKELY
AS PREVIOUS THINKING.
THE PRIMARY LOW WILL OCCLUDE FURTHER TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE SECONDARY
LOW TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SHOVE THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
STALL THERE, AND PRECIPITATION WILL TRAIL OFF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL EDGE ACROSS OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE QUIETING DOWN BY
TUESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE DUE TO THE CURRENT OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN NOT
RELENTING. THE STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HELP PUMP DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW, AND WITH LIMITED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE RECHARGED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC HAS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK (1/5) TOMORROW, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WITH THE UPPER LOW EDGING CLOSER, THERE
WILL BE GOOD SUPPORT ALOFT AS WELL AS MODERATE SHEAR VALUES ALONG
THE FRONT, BOTH OF WHICH WILL HELP ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE EXCITED
ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHER END
GUIDANCE SHOWING ML CAPE VALUES BRIEFLY RANGING BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG, WHILE THE LOWER END IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS 1000-1500 J/KG.
REGARDLESS, THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. CAM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AS OPPOSED TO THIS
MORNING'S LINE OF STORMS, SO RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL WIDELY VARY BASED ON THE LOCATION OF ANY STORMS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARDS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH. THE
ALREADY LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY, LEADING TO A QUIET AND MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT.
NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED,
WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND REBOUND
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA EARLIER
IN THE WEEK MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
LIKELY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS AND MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BUT COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER
LOW IN THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
REBOUND NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EDT SUNDAY...
THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS (AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS)
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY NOT BEEN
HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS, BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISBILITIES WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CEILINGS HAVE GENERALLY RETURNED
TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES, BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS
DETERIORATE AFTER 00Z AT ALL LOCATIONS, WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE STARTING BETWEEN ~03 TO 06Z AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
MORNING (LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR CEILINGS AT ECG). SBY MAY SEE
SUB-VFR CEILINGS LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SITES IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE) ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY (BEST CHANCES
LIKELY AT SBY/ALONG THE COAST). CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED
INLAND. THE WIND IS PRIMARILY S 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
~20KT. SEAS RANGE FROM 2-3FT S TO 3-4FT N, WITH WAVES IN THE CHES.
BAY APPROXIMATELY 2FT. CONDITIONS ARE SUB-SCA AT THIS TIME, SO
REMAINING SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES AND THE
CHES. BAY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS W OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TAKE MORE OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO BACK TO SE/SSE 10-15KT, ASIDE FROM A
TRANSIENT DIURNAL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 2-3FT NEARSHORE
AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY
~2FT TODAY THEN 1-2FT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO
THE W WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT NE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A S TO SSW WIND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, SHIFTING TO WNW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BEFORE RETURNING TO S/SSE LATER WEDNESDAY AFTN. SEAS WILL
PRIMARILY BE 2-3FT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE
CHES. BAY. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY PUSHES N-S
ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING REMAINS LOW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HET/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...AJB/HET
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ
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