143
FXUS61 KAKQ 050131
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
931 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SLOW MOVING/CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PERIOD OF POSSIBLE UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 930 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
MID-UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS. AT THE SURFACE, AN OCCLUDED LOW IS LOCATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL KENTUCKY, WITH A SECONDARY LOW AROUND WEST VIRGINIA. AN
ATTENDANT AND INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS SSE FROM THE SECONDARY LOW OVER W VA/WV, EXTENDING INTO
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
THE COMBINATION OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF RAINFALL
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES CAPPED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AS EXPECTED
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. THE PRIMARY
LOW WILL OCCLUDE FURTHER TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE SECONDARY LOW TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WET GROUND, HIGHER PW VALUES, AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG, ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE PIEDMONT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE QUIETING DOWN BY
TUESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE DUE TO THE CURRENT OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN NOT
RELENTING. THE STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HELP PUMP DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW, AND WITH LIMITED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE RECHARGED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC HAS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK (1/5) TOMORROW, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WITH THE UPPER LOW EDGING CLOSER, THERE
WILL BE GOOD SUPPORT ALOFT AS WELL AS MODERATE SHEAR VALUES ALONG
THE FRONT, BOTH OF WHICH WILL HELP ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE EXCITED
ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHER END
GUIDANCE SHOWING ML CAPE VALUES BRIEFLY RANGING BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG, WHILE THE LOWER END IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS 1000-1500 J/KG.
REGARDLESS, THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. CAM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AS OPPOSED TO THIS
MORNING'S LINE OF STORMS, SO RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL WIDELY VARY BASED ON THE LOCATION OF ANY STORMS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARDS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH. THE
ALREADY LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY, LEADING TO A QUIET AND MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT.
NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED,
WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND REBOUND
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA EARLIER
IN THE WEEK MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
LIKELY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS AND MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BUT COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER
LOW IN THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
REBOUND NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 830 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT LOCAL TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 00Z/05 TAF
PERIOD. DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN ~03 TO 06Z
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 07-10Z (MAINLY FOR CIGS, THOUGH BRIEF IFR
VSBY ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST). CIGS RETURN TO VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING MONDAY, THOUGH SBY MAY SEE SUB- VFR CEILINGS
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY (BEST CHANCES
LIKELY AT SBY/ALONG THE COAST). CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO HAVE ALLOWED FOR SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WITH CURRENT WINDS OUT OF THE S AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, OUT OF
THE S AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GAINS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL LIFTING, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. WITH THIS FRONT BEING WEAK, SUB-
ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO NW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BEFORE RETURNING TO S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A STRONGER FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND COULD BRING SCA CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WAVES AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 1 TO 2 FT IN THE BAY AND 3 TO
4 FT OFF THE COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH LATE MID
WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HET/NB
NEAR TERM...MAM/NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...AJB/HET
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...KMC
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