182
FXUS61 KAKQ 050742
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW
MOVING/CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PERIOD OF POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MAYBE SEVERE.
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NOW CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS COLOCATED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW HAS OCCLUDED AND A NEW CENTER
OF LOW IS NOW PLACED OVER SW PA. THE COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THIS NEW
LOW IS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN/BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THIS
FRONT HAS STALLED THIS MORNING ALLOWING SSE FLOW AND MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWS AREAS OF PATCHY FOG FORMING ACROSS THE
FA CAUSING VISIBILITY TO DROP LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE. A
SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN FOR THE PATCHY FOG. WITH THESE CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND
LIGHT MOISTURE ADVECTION THESE PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH DAY BREAK. WITH THESE FOGGY CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. AS OF 2AM
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS STATED
EARLIER THESE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE AND
CHANGE PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO BY DAY BREAK.
LATER TODAY, THE CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY START MOVING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING AROUND A JET STREAK OF ENHANCED FLOW THAT
WILL HELP INITIATE POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SSE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S ADEQUATE ENOUGH FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WEAK SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AROUND 30 KT. UNLIKE YESTERDAY, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO ALLOW INSTABILITY TO GROW AND TO HIT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ROUGHLY 1000 TO 1500J/KG OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE BUILDING IN ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. CAM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NC/VA BOARDER
AND MOVING NNE ACROSS THE AREA. BASED OFF SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL
SOUNDING HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN ADDITION TO GUSTY
WINDS. THIS IS DUE TO MODEST TO STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AS WELL AS STRAIGHT-LINED HODOGRAPHS. THEN BY TONIGHT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE NUDGED SLIGHTLY EAST ALLOWING AREAS WEST OF I-
95 TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND AREAS TO THE EAST WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO QUITE DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BY TUESDAY THE STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW WILL BEING TO FINALLY EXITED THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE FINALLY PUSHED ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THERE STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF I-64 FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEST OF I-
95 AND MD AND LOWER 80S SOUTH AND EAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
PRIMARILY OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN KEEPING THE AREA DRY. THIS WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF
THE WEEK. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR SEASONAL BUT
WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS VA/NC AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE LATEST 0Z/05 ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE
ENSEMBLES DO HINT ON THE FORMATION OF AN ADDITIONAL UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION
THIS PATTERN COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE IN A CAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COULD POTENTIALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND THE
UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN KEEPING THE AREA DRY.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...
IFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS ORF, PHF, AND SBY EARLY THIS
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LEVEL LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THESE TERMINALS AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS FOR RIC CIGS
REMAIN VFR AS OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BETWEEN 6Z TO 9Z THIS MORNING. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED
THE TAF TO ACCOUNT IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN EARLIER.
ONCE IFR CONDITIONS APPROACH THE TERMINAL IT WILL LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING. ECG IS SIMILAR TO RIC AS VFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THEIR TERMINAL BUT MVFR AND THEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z. AS FOR
VISIBILITY, MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE VA/MD TERMINALS. LIGHT WIND AND RESIDUE MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO SETTLE IN AND LAST THROUGH DAY BREAK LATER
THIS MORNING.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
SSE ~10KT. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH OVER
TO VFR CONDITIONS AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AND CLOUD COVER
SLIGHTLY DECREASES. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND A PROB30 HAS BEEN ADDED TO RIC TAF
FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20-23Z TODAY.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY (BEST CHANCES
LIKELY AT SBY/ALONG THE COAST). CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
MARINE
AS OF 325 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF THIS WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE (SURFACE AND ALOFT) REMAINS CENTERED WELL W OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONT LINGERS
INLAND, WITH A LIGHT SE WIND, PRIMARILY 5-10KT AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED SWELL DESPITE LIGHTER WIND, AND
SEAS ARE MAINLY 3-4FT, AND OCCASIONALLY NEAR 5FT OFFSHORE. LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS W OF THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT LINGERING INLAND TODAY AND SHIFTING TOWARD THE
COAST BY TONIGHT. THE WIND REMAINS SE 5-10KT THIS MORNING,
BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15KT THIS AFTN AND EVENING, AND THEN
BECOMING S AND DIMINISHING TO 5-10KT LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHC OF AFTN/EARLY EVENING TSTMS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN 3-4FT TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5FT OFFSHORE. 00Z/05 NWPS
HAS SEAS NEARING 5FT OUT NEAR 20NM N OF CHINCOTEAGUE TONIGHT,
BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO SUPPORT AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE W WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT NE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A S TO SSW WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHIFTING
TO WNW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE
RETURNING TO S/SSE LATER WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. SEAS WILL
PRIMARILY BE 2-3FT S TO 3-4FT N TUESDAY, THEN 2-3FT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH 1- 2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. A
STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY PUSHES N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATER THIS WEEK (THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY), BUT
CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND TIMING REMAINS LOW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HET/NB
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...AJB/HET
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...AJZ
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