175
FXUS61 KAKQ 051746
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
146 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW
MOVING/CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE MAIN THREATS HAIL AND WIND.
CONVECTION DEVELOPED IN SE VA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ONE STORM
REALLY OVER PERFORMING. THIS STORM MANAGED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-2" FROM NORTHERN SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY THROUGH PORTIONS OF
JAMES CITY COUNTY BEFORE DEVIATING TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUING
ITS PATH THROUGH ASHLAND THEN FINALLY MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WHILE WINDS ALOFT DID NOT REALLY MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE, THERE
WAS AT LEAST ONE REPORT OF HALF INCH HAIL AND ANOTHER REPORT OF TREE
DAMAGE. THIS STORM HAS BEEN REALLY THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN, WITH A FEW
WEAKER SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK. PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE AREA EARLIER HAS EITHER LIFTED OR BEEN WASHED OUT BY RAINFALL,
AND SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGE
BETWEEN THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. A FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES, WHICH IS
CLEARLY DENOTED BY WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF VA AND NC ON SPC MESOANALYSIS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY REGION DUE
TO THE CURRENT OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN NOT LETTING UP. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER
LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD REACH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING AND WILL ACT TO ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE FRONT. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DEEP
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD START TO LESSEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE QUICKLY DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO INCREASE RELATIVELY QUICKLY. HAVE
DECIDED TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECHARGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH
CONVECTION INITIATION BEGINNING AROUND 2 PM. SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) TODAY, WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS
AFTERNOON'S ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE MODERATE SHEAR, ML CAPE VALUES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG, AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 C/KM
TO 7 C/KM. CAM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAYS'S BROAD SWATH OF STORMS, SO
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL WIDELY VARY BASED ON
THE LOCATION OF ANY STORMS, AS NOTED BY THIS MORNING'S STORM'S
RAINFALL FOOTPRINT. STORMS MAY START TO CONGEAL AND PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH-FLOODING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARDS TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS,
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA, BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT. STORMS SHOULD END
BEFORE MIDNIGHT, WITH SOME TRAILING LIGHTER RAIN POSSIBLE. SKIES
WILL START TO CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S W AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S E.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO QUIET DOWN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
BY TUESDAY, THE STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY
EXIT THE AREA AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE FINALLY
PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THERE
IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF I-64 FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEST OF I- 95 AND MD AND
LOWER 80S SOUTH AND EAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OFF
THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN, KEEPING THE AREA DRY. THIS WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR SEASONAL BUT
WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS VA/NC AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
THE LATEST 0Z/05 ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE
ENSEMBLES DO HINT ON THE FORMATION OF AN ADDITIONAL UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION
THIS PATTERN COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE IN A CAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COULD POTENTIALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND THE
UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN KEEPING THE AREA DRY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EDT MONDAY...
THIS AFTERNOON, SCT TO BKN MVFR CIGS (~1500 TO 2500 FT) ARE
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES. WE LIKELY SEE SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS (OUTSIDE OF SBY
WHICH REMAINS MVFR). IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT (HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT RIC). A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SUB-VFR VIS, STRONG WIND
GUSTS, AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL. AFTER SHOWERS/STORMS
DISSIPATE, ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS IS AT SBY, WITH LESSER CERTAINTY AT THE
OTHER SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES LATER
TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.
MARINE
AS OF 325 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF THIS WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE (SURFACE AND ALOFT) REMAINS CENTERED WELL W OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONT LINGERS
INLAND, WITH A LIGHT SE WIND, PRIMARILY 5-10KT AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED SWELL DESPITE LIGHTER WIND, AND
SEAS ARE MAINLY 3-4FT, AND OCCASIONALLY NEAR 5FT OFFSHORE. LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS W OF THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT LINGERING INLAND TODAY AND SHIFTING TOWARD THE
COAST BY TONIGHT. THE WIND REMAINS SE 5-10KT THIS MORNING,
BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15KT THIS AFTN AND EVENING, AND THEN
BECOMING S AND DIMINISHING TO 5-10KT LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHC OF AFTN/EARLY EVENING TSTMS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN 3-4FT TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5FT OFFSHORE. 00Z/05 NWPS
HAS SEAS NEARING 5FT OUT NEAR 20NM N OF CHINCOTEAGUE TONIGHT,
BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO SUPPORT AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE W WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT NE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A S TO SSW WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHIFTING
TO WNW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE
RETURNING TO S/SSE LATER WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. SEAS WILL
PRIMARILY BE 2-3FT S TO 3-4FT N TUESDAY, THEN 2-3FT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH 1- 2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. A
STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY PUSHES N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATER THIS WEEK (THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY), BUT
CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND TIMING REMAINS LOW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...HET/NB
NEAR TERM...HET/NB
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...AJB/HET
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ
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